Caffeinated Week 3 Preview

Posted: September 21, 2013 in Uncategorized
Tags: , , , ,

(I switched over from caffeine-free NO-Xplode to regular, caffeinated NO-Xplode this evening. I had a terrific workout. I also have no desire to sleep.)

Jacksonville goes to Seattle next week. Seattle scored more points in week one than Jacksonville has scored so far this season. Seattle just dismantled what was arguably thought to be the number one team in football 29 – 3 at home. And now they face the Jacksonville Jaguars being led by Chad Henne. Henne, bless his heart, has never had a season where he threw more touchdowns than interceptions. This match-up is like a grizzly bear hunting a squirrel. A squirrel with no legs. Or brain. If any team could improve their quarterback situation by enlisting the services of Timothy Richard Tebow, Shahid Kahn’s Jaguars could. At least Tebow could put points on the board and butts in the seats.

Patriots and Jets

New England defeated the New York Jets 13-10 at Gillette Stadium. This was the most painful close game to watch within recent memory. Future hall of famer Tom Brady completed 19/39 passes for 185 yards and one touchdown with zero interceptions. The Patriots totalled 54 whole yards of rushing on the day. Clearly Rex Ryan’s crew still knows how to play defense as the Patriots struggled to move the ball in the forward direction all evening. Inclement weather and inexperienced receivers were likely two significant factors in the equation that was the Patriots offense last Thursday evening.

In news that shocked no one, Danny Amendola received a notable injury and will be out for at least a few months. Former Kent State quarterback Julian Edelman has emerged as the Patriots leading receiver with the loss of Danny Amendola and the apparent shortage of Dobson and Thompkins in the offense so far. Edelman looks to be Brady’s top target for the foreseeable future until man-child superstar Rob Gronkowski returns from injury and Amendola waits to recover as well.

Trent Richardson, Indianapolis, and San Francisco

We’ll get to see Trent Richardson in a Colts uniform line up against the San Francisco 49ers defense after the 49ers suffered an embarrassing loss to division rivals Seattle Seahawks. Fans and pundits alike continue to heap praise on Indianapolis for making the trade happen. Richardson was a 1st round pick out an enormously talented Alabama team. Regardless, Richardson has a career average 3.5 yards per carry for Cleveland. This is an offensive line that starts Joe Thomas, one of the league’s most well respected left tackles. Rotoworlds’ Evan Silva ranks Cleveland’s O-line as sixth best in the league, pretty good considering how poor the talent around the line seems to operate. Footballoutsiders.com ranks Cleveland’s run blocking 10th overall in the league, suggesting Richardsons’ inability to break four yards per carry has more to do with his inexperience or inability to execute at a competitive level more so than his offensive line play. Indy’s pass-heavy offense could very well bring the best out in Richardson with the loosening up of defenses hesitant to give Luck to much room to work with, but the numbers suggest Irsay and the Colts likely gave up too much for the (arguably) overrated talent.

Getting back to San Francisco, the 49ers defense looks vulnerable with a new starting nose tackle after losing Ian Williams to injury in a controversial low cut made during the loss to Seattle last week. This coupled with a rash of injuries to starting rookie safety Eric Reid, starting DTs Justin Smith and Ray McDonald, the 49er’s mettle will be tested against a Colts offense that features one of the games’ young talents at quarterback and one of the league’s sturdiest power backs with Richardson weighing in at 5’9” and 227 lbs. That’s more weight per square inch than the immovable Maurice Jones Drew. Oh, and star outside linebacker Aldon Smith just got arrested for a DUI, though early reports state Smith is still expected to start this week for the 49ers’ game against the Colts. The matchup should be an intriguing one.

San Diego and Tennessee

You football geeks might want to pay attention to the not bad San Diego Chargers playing the not bad Tennessee Titans in Nashville. Tennessee has played above average defense with less than impressive offense. While San Diego is averaging exactly 30.5 points a game, on offense and allowed on defense. The ‘new’ Philip Rivers and the underrated Titans D ought to provide a compelling match up in week three.

Dave’s Upset prediction

Oakland over Denver. I realize my last prediction didn’t go as planned, and this one may not look too probable either, but let’s break down some details.

NFL powerhouses have a way of under-preparing in anticipation of facing scrappy, tired-of-losing teams who are likely ‘over-preparing.’ The unstoppable 2011 Green Bay Packers at 13-0 went to Arrowhead stadium against a struggling 5-8 Chiefs team that collected most of their wins in close games from other poor teams and lost in what became the biggest upset of the season. The 2011 Houston Texans, posting their first double-digit win season ever (10-6), still failed to defeat 1-13 Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium, good enough for dead last (Houston’s record remains 0-11 at Lucas Oil Field to this day). I could bore you to death with more examples but I won’t.

Nfl.com’s produced a statistic claiming that Oakland is 1-8 on Monday Night Football since 2003. Not a particularly promising number for Oakland at first glance. However, when taking into account Oakland’s all time record against Denver is actually 60-45-2, this suggests Oakland is due for a win. Historically speaking, Oakland ‘usually’ beats Denver. And Oakland’s all time NFL record of 431-364-11 (according to pro-football-reference.com) suggests they are well overdue for a win if they’ve matched eight losses with only one win on Monday night football.

Let’s put away the numbers and look at the players. Oakland’s defense has actually performed admirably so far this season, allowing an average of fifteen points per game. Denver’s sky-high offense lost arguably their second most important offensive player in LT Ryan Clady to injury. Whether penciled in back up Chris Clark or recent signing Winston Justice steps in for Clady as Manning’s bodyguard, Oakland will have plenty of opportunity to take advantage of Clady’s absence having posted a (prior to Kansas City’s Thursday night abusing of Michael Vick) league-leading nine sacks in two games. Oakland’s dominance in running the ball between Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden could well provide them ample opportunity to work the clock and keep Manning and Co. off the field.

Denver hasn’t had to aggressively defend the run this season because, well, they’ve put up 90 points in two games, New York and Baltimore were throwing for their lives. If Oakland’s pass rush can disrupt the Broncos offense, the offense could take plenty of time to score and turn the tide at Sports Authority Field this Sunday.

Denver is heavily favored. They have the best offense in the league. They have home field advantage. What they don’t have is anything to prove to anyone. Surprise starting QB Terrelle Pryor, HC Dennis Allen, and that practically unknown defense do. For this reason I feel Oakland has as good a chance as anybody to put a check in the ‘W’ column after this Sunday is over.

In closing

This will be an exciting Sunday. Tom Brady faces off against Darrelle Revis again. Cleveland went from bad to worse by trading away Trent Richardson and will try to move the sticks with 31-year old Willis McGahee (that’s about 90 in regular human years) and will struggle to compete against a competent Minnesota team. The Arizona experiment continues with Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, and head coach Bruce Arians against the New Orleans Saints. Pittsburgh will struggle to prove they are still relevant against a sturdy Chicago defense. Football is exciting.

“There’s so much non pro football on Saturday. How will I fill the time?”

Go outside. Play with someone’s dog. Impersonate a Wal Mart employee until you are asked to “please leave.” Throw a dance party. In your car. At red lights. Put things in other people’s grocery carts at the grocery store. Take your parents through the drive-thru (My parents are hilarious at the drive-thru).

I am now going to lie down and pretend to sleep until I am asleep. Enjoy your weekend.

 

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