Week Five Picks

Posted: October 3, 2018 in Football, New entries, NFL
I went 9-6 with my picks last week. Here’s my week five predictions:
NE over IND – Julian Edelman returns in time for the Colts game. Patriots should win at home. Josh Gordon will have more time to familiarize himself with Brady and offense. Colts have a better than advertised defense but the Patriots are still in another league right now. And Frank Reich is still learning how to be a head coach.
TEN over BUF – I one hundred percent of the time recommend picking against Buffalo in 2018. Vrabel’s been working some magic in Tennessee and they deserve credit for beating 2 playoff teams from last season.
ATL over PIT – This should be such a close game. Both defenses have been scoring-friendly with Atlanta down three starting former pro bowlers and Pittsburgh just not having strong nickel/safety play. I like Matt Ryan as a better passer right now than Ben Roethlisberger. Ben doesn’t have LeVeon Bell to lean on any more. As unsteady as ATL’s been, the Falcons should continue to expose Pittsburgh’s secondary. I expect Calvin Ridley to go off again this week.
DEN over NYJ – The Broncos play competitive defense and have formed a clear identity on how they’d like to win games. If Case can be accurate, Denver has serious deep threat weapons and a bruising young rushing duo in Royce Freeman and Philip Lindsay. The Jets haven’t demonstrated competitiveness since week one.
KC over JAX – This should be the game of the week. I like KC in Arrowhead stadium. Leonard Fournette is out. The Chiefs defense will have to defend TJ Yeldon and Kendall Fuller will have to capitalize on inevitable Blake Bortles mistakes.
GB over DET – Green Bay’s talented enough they should win here. If Jimmy Graham plays I can’t see how Detroit is supposed to consistently cover him. Aaron Jones is back and gives Green Bay a physical presence.
BAL over CLE – Cleveland finally has hope for the future with Baker, but the Ravens defense might be the best in Football, and they’re getting Jimmy Smith back. As good as Baker’s been, he’s still a rookie and this will be his toughest defensive test yet.
CAR over NYG – The Panthers are having success running the ball with Christian McCaffrey.  The Giants are a mess and need a fresh start at QB. This will be Eric Reid’s first game since 2017. The Giants haven’t shown they can rush the passer or defend the pass.
CIN over MIA – I have to continue to pick the Bengals as long as they are playing clean football. Joe Mixon’s not a lock to return for week five, but Giovani Bernard’s been getting it done in his absence either way. Cincy wins at home. Miami just lost Center Daniel Kilgore.
LAC over OAK – This is actually a losable game for the Bolts. Oakland has kept it close in all of their games through the first half at least. L.A. will get Corey Liuget back and the Raiders still can’t muster a pass rush.
SF over ARZ (Homer pick don’t trust) – C.J. Beathard actually played fairly well against the Chargers last week. You generally don’t want to put any money on Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers this year but Arizona has no offense right now. Matt Breida is also playing better than David Johnson so far.
PHI over MIN – Both of these teams seem to be broken. The Eagles soundly trounced Minnesota in the playoffs with Nick Foles. Philly will get back on track with Carson Wentz connecting with Alshon Jeffery and Jordan Matthews.
LAR over SEA – The Rams are pretty good.
HOU over DAL – Dallas is playing disciplined defense and can still run well. Bill O’Brien still fields a strong defensive core and J.J. Watt looks like he’s back. Watson can throw the Texans back into the game and the Cowboys haven’t shown they can do that.
NO over WAS – The Redskins are just good enough to beat teams not on their A Game. The Saints get Mark Ingram back and have home field advantage. The Saints are still a top NFC team.

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