Archive for August, 2019

Week one predictions

Posted: August 29, 2019 in Football, New entries, NFL

Chicago over Green Bay – NFL’s number one defense should win a home game against Green Bay with a new head coach. Green Bay has a nucleus in place and they definitely have the QB, but Chicago’s more complete right now. Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Tarik Cohen, David Montgomery all attract coverage. 

Minnesota over Atlanta – Minnesota is a very complete team with one of the league’s most skilled defensive units. Atlanta won’t be able to stop Minnesota from scoring, but Minnesota can stop Atlanta.

Buffalo over NYJ – Josh Allen is not the most polished passer but performs as a surprisingly effective dual threat. The Bills are heavily remade with almost a brand new offensive line and a group of new skill position players (John Brown, Cole Beasley, Frank Gore, Devin Singletary). The Bills defense is still respectable. Adam Gase hasn’t shown the world he can field a competitive football team.  

Philadelphia over Washington – The Redskins won’t be competitive 

LAC over Indianapolis –

Dallas over NYG – The Giants are still rebuilding and Dallas is tough to beat at home. They don’t need Elliot to win this game.

Detroit over Arizona – The Kyler Murray Experience(TM) is still in Beta testing. Detroit isn’t awful at any one position. That defense should have no issues against this struggling offensive line and rookie QB.

New Orleans over Houston – Houston may not have Jadeveon Clowney for this contest. The Texans are moving in the right direction trying to build out their offensive line, but the Saints are already where they need to be in most positions on their depth chart. 

Kansas City over Jax – I really wanted to pick Jacksonville as the trap pick here. They have the defense to be able to win this game. I don’t think Foles will have the weapons in Jacksonville that he had in Philadelphia to score on Kansas City at will. Jacksonville has an elite (statistically) defense and Kansas City has an elite offense, but Kansas City has a better defense than Jacksonville has offense. The Chiefs pass rush and secondary performance are built to keep Pat Mahomes ahead in games. And there’s still a real possibility Leonard Fournette’s going to Eddie Lacy his career after his 2018 disaster, which would leave the Jaguars with no effective running game.

Cleveland over Tennessee – The Browns have the more balanced roster, being able to both pass and run the ball with Baker and Nick Chubb. The defense can’t perform any worse than top 15 with Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson brought in on the defensive line and Steve Wilks running the show. I like Vrabel as a play caller maybe more than Kitchens but I don’t see this game coming down to a crucial, 2 minute drive.

TRAP Miami over Baltimore – Admittedly, Baltimore is the much more talented team here. Miami has found a way to win at home. They were 7-1 at home last year. Including wins over the playoff-qualifying Bears and Patriots. Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for Miami who will challenge that Baltimore secondary. I’m not sold on Lamar yet winning in a tough environment against an underrated defense with Xavien Howard, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Eric Rowe forming a strong young secondary. I also expect preseason standout Preston Williams to show up here against Baltimore.

LAR over Carolina – This is a potential trap game if Cam is healthy and playing at 100%. The Rams should be the favorite in 95% of their games until they prove otherwise.

Seattle over Cincinnati – Seattle may be making a play to sign JaDeveon Clowney. 

San Francisco over Tampa Bay – I’m a 49ers fan, so take this with a grain of salt. Jameis has never been consistent and he has fewer weapons that last season. For the record, Vegas has Tampa winning at home here. Tampa has the worst running game in football (still) and that defense, while they’ve added some young, needed talent with White, Jamel Dean, and Sean Murphy-Bunting they still look like they lack top end coverage talent. Shanahan will want multiple receiving weapons on the field (Kittle, Goodwin, Jalen Hurd, Deebo Samuel) and I doubt Tampa’s defense will be able to cover that group consistently.

New England over Pittsburgh – Bill Belichick should be able to win the revenge game against Pittsburgh in Foxboro. The Steelers should actually be OKAY without Mr. Big Chest and Le’Veon Bell as JuJu, James Washington, and James Conner have all stepped up in a big way. The Steelers secondary should continue to be a liability the Patriots will try to expose. The Patriots recently got Josh Gordon back from suspension and should be able to gameplan for the likely missing Patrick Chung who got busted with cocaine.

Denver over Oakland – Denver’s defense looks suffocating right now. Bradley Chubb is playing like a top five selection (in preseason) and the secondary is still performing well.


  • For regular season performance, of the top ten rushing defense teams in 2018, only two made the playoffs (Chiefs, Rams). The BOTTOM ten rushing defenses produced eight teams that went to the playoffs (Bears, Saints, Texans, Ravens, Cowboys, Eagles, Colts, Chargers).  I’m not suggesting Run Defense makes your team bad, but that premium resources such as early draft picks or high cap space dollars should be spent on pass defense or a passing game, as those two categories much more strongly correlate to qualifying for the playoffs than run defense. This is why the PFF crowd criticized the Giants and Raiders for drafting run defense talent like Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Abram when players like CB Greedy Williams or DE Jaylon Ferguson would have pushed their respective teams closer to the playoffs than the run-stop specialists who were drafted.
  • A statistic that slaps traditional NFL analytics in the face; The New York Giants had the number one scoring offense in the NFC East (23.06 points per game) and were their last place team (5-11).
  • The Miami Dolphins are my dark horse pick for wild card surprise of 2019. Everyone seems to be under the impression Brian Flores is tanking 2019 but they upgraded at QB from Ryan Tannehill who earned a number thirty-eight overall grade out of eligible QBs and went to Ryan Fitzpatrick with a number nine overall PFF grade (that’s including all of his pick-sixes).  The Dolphins are also quietly building one of the league’s better pass defenses with Xavien Howard recently signing a big contract, newcomer Christian Wilkins as a disruptive interior defender, and starting DB Eric Rowe joining Miami after winning a championship in New England. The ‘Phins finished 7-9 last season. Screenshot this and save it for after 2019 when the Dolphins finish 3-13 so you can roast me on social media.



Nonsense QB stat comparisons:

(Boston College) Matt Ryan College Stats  – 59.9%, 6.9 YPA, 9,313 Passing yards, 56 TD 37 INT, 1.5 TD/INT Ratio. 11 Rushing TDs.

(Duke) Daniel Jones College Stats – 59.9%, 6.4 YPA, 8,201 Passing yards, 52 TD 29 INT, 1.79 TD/INT Ratio. 17 Rushing TDs.


(OU) Baker Mayfield College Stats  – 68.5%, 9.8 YPA, 14,607 Passing yards, 131 TD 30 INT, 4.36 TD/INT ratio. 21 Rushing TDs. (Started approx. 3 1/2 seasons)

(OU) Kyler Murray College Stats  – 67.4%, 10.4 YPA, 5,406 Passing yards, 50 TD 14 INT, 3.57 TD/INT ratio. 13 Rushing TDs. (Started approx. 1 1/2 seasons)


(Michigan State) Kirk Cousins College Stats  – 64.1%, 8.1 YPA, 9,131 Passing yards, 66 TD 30 INT, 2.2 TD/INT ratio, 1 Rushing TD.

(Ohio State) Dwayne Haskins College Stats – 70.0%, 9.1 YPA, 5396 Passing yards, 54 TD 9 INT, 6.0 TD/INT ratio, 4 Rushing TD.





The Bears can’t sustain their level of success and Mitchell Trubisky is just Taysom Hill but younger. I’m expecting 9-7.

Vic Fangio on Depression Drew Lock: “I was hoping for more, but I’m not surprised.”

The Eagles will have the highest scoring offense in the NFL (barring a Carson Wentz injury) . Their receiving depth is silly. 


Daniel Jones may actually, really have a better career than Haskins as the Giants have a QB-friendly system and are working with him to slowly improve. The Redskins seem to randomly attack their players with hammers to the knee every 10 weeks or so.