Week 11 predictions

Posted: November 17, 2019 in Football, New entries, NFL

Jets at Redskins – Jets. The Redskins could win this game with Case Keenum. Haskins is being asked to learn the pro game when he should be on the bench. The Jets have a surprisingly sturdy run defense so Callahan’s run first strategy will have a rough time against Quinnen Williams, Steve McLendon and the rest of the Jets front seven. The Redskins have a path to victory maybe, if their defense really stands up and they just kick a ton of field goals. The Jets win this matchup seven out of ten times. The Jets aren’t a stellar team, but Sam is on average throwing better than Haskins, and the Jets secondary is more reliable than the Redskins.

Saints at Buccaneers  – Saints. I can see a path to victory for Tampa, they’re on average scoring more points than New Orleans and the Saints recently tripped over themselves in a shocking loss to a bottom ten Atlanta team. One thing Atlanta did well in that game is consistently pressure Brees. While Shaq Barrett is having a breakout season, he nor any of the other Buccaneers sacked Teddy Bridgewater in the earlier tilt the Saints/Bucs played in New Orleans. New Orleans has strong contributors on defense, former first round pick Marcus Davenport has started to contribute in a meaningful way and former Jets/Browns linebacker Demario Davis who’s never been a blue chip player is having a stellar year in New Orleans. The Bucs allow the most points per game, and I expect Brees, Thomas, Kamara, and Jared Cook to be able to move the ball against Tampa Bay’s defense. If Todd Bowles can find a way to pressure Brees, the Buccaneers can maybe win this game.

Broncos at Vikings – Vikings. Denver QB Brandon Allen threw two touchdowns in win over Cleveland. Denver actually has a really good defense. All of this being considered, their offensive line and QB play will keep them from competing against Minnesota. The Vikings offensive line, long recognized as one of the league’s worst, has actually performed sort of well this year. Kirk Cousins has been productive in the last five weeks, and Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison have both had plenty of room to run behind that offensive line. Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen is out, but Laquon Treadwell has been competitive with the opportunities he’s had this year. This Denver team would be really exciting with a competitive quarterback and better overall offensive line play. Watching Courtland Sutton catch his three beautiful passes per game stuck in a desert wasteland of an offense makes me sad.

Bills at Dolphins – Bills. Miami has back to back wins all of a sudden. Buffalo is unstable enough that they could realistically lose this game, after seeing their loss to Cleveland. Miami will not have one of the worst QB performances like 3 INT Brian Hoyer or highly inconsistent Sam Darnold to capitalize on. Buffalo should be able to command the pace of the game with the run, Buffalo’s secondary will keep Fitzpatrick from moving the ball downfield on a regular basis. Miami’s starting to find standout performers who can contribute meaningfully in 2020 (Nik Needham, Devante Parker, John Jenkins) but aren’t competitive every game in ’19. Buffalo would have to commit a TON of turnovers to lose this game.

Jaguars at Colts – Jaguars. Indianapolis has been very competitive with Jacoby Brissett at the helm. I’m gambling that the return of Nick Foles will be more than the Colts will be able to handle on defense. Gardner performed very well for a late round pick and had his worst game right before Nick Foles returned from injury, but Foles has an emerged D.J. Chark and the best(?) version of Leonard Fournette to rely on. Plus, I see this game coming down to an Adam Vinatieri field goal. Vinatieri is in the Joe Montana/Chiefs stage in his career. He’s a H.O.F. kicker but he’s not consistent in 2019.

Cowboys at Lions – Cowboys. With Matthew Stafford, this would be a game. Jeff Driskel doesn’t commit a ton of turnovers, the Lions won’t be able to reliably score against Dallas with Driskel at QB.

Falcons at Panthers – Falcons. The Panthers have a lot of talent on defense. There are reasons to believe in this roster. The Falcons front seven terrorized Drew Brees and one of the best offensive lines IN NEW ORLEANS. Kyle Allen is a beatable Quarterback. The Panthers path to victory goes through Christian McCaffrey. If Matt Ryan can develop a rhythm with Jones and Ridley the Falcons should outduel Carolina. McCaffrey’s an elite performer, but he can only play running back. Jeff Ulbrich, (former 49ers linebacker) has taken over play-calling responsibilities for Atlanta’s defense, this happened before the Falcons/Saints game.

Texans at Ravens – Ravens. This is a tough call. I really like Watson. I ultimately trust Harbaugh as a play caller more and Tucker for those late game field goals. Both of these teams are functioning in a very similar way. Bill O’Brien is a questionable play caller late in the game. I actually think Deshaun watson is a better QB than Lamar, but Baltimore is using Lamar in a very tough way to defend, and Marcus Peters has been playing like a man possessed since coming to Baltimore.

Cardinals at 49ers – 49ers. This could be a trap game for Shanahan and Saleh. The 49ers barely scraped by against Arizona a few weeks ago. At home, they should be able to keep Kyler Murray in check and Chase McLaughlin performed well under pressure against Seattle. I would expect this to be another close game.

Patriots at Eagles – Patriots. Philadelphia is too unreliable to safely pick them at home. They can perform like the best of the best week to week. The Patriots defense should be able to keep Carson Wentz largely in check. The Eagles offensive line is not as dominant as its been, and the secondary has been repeatedly exposed. This should be a close game.

Bengals at Raiders – Raiders. The Raiders have been competitive this year. They will face Ryan Finley in this game.

Bears at Rams – Rams. The Bears have a great defense. They have no reliable offense whatsoever. Sean McVay doesn’t lose to Mitchell Trubisky two years in a row. Trubisky is not performing at the same level this year as he was in 18.

Chiefs at Chargers – Chiefs. The Chiefs defense has problems. Mahomes isn’t playing at the same level as in 2018. The Chiefs are more stable than the Chargers.

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