Archive for December, 2019

Week 17 picks

Posted: December 27, 2019 in Football, New entries, NFL

TB at ATL – Tampa Bay. Both the Falcons and the Bucs are 5-2 over their last seven games, an impressive turnaround for two dumpster-tier teams in the first half of the season. Tampa won game 1 in Atlanta and will be motivated to show they’re improving after a 7-9 2018 season. Tampa has home field advantage, they won game 1, and they have more reason to “win” this game than the Falcons. I also like Bruce Arians as an in game play-caller more than Quinn.

Miami at New England – New England. If Tom starts, the Patriots win at home.

Chicago at Minnesota – Minnesota

LAC at Kansas City – Kansas City

Green Bay at Detroit – Green Bay. Detroit actually got robbed by some bad refereeing in their first matchup, so this might actually be an interesting game. The Packers are just a much more stable team than Detroit.

Cleveland at Cincinnati – Cleveland. The browns have the best running back going up against the worst run defense in football.

New Orleans at Carolina – New Orleans. Another Will Grier game.

Jets at Buffalo – Buffalo. Neither of these teams “NEED” this win. Buffalo’s still more talented and playing better defense. At home.

Arizona at Rams – Rams. The Rams now have to ensure their first round picks remain low to justify their Jalen Ramsey trade. Sean McVay is a top coach and wins more than he loses, even after a rough missed playoffs season.

Oakland at Denver – Oakland. Drew Lock has posted one crazy strong performance against Houston and three bad or worse performances against the Chargers, Chiefs, and Lions. The Raiders have an outside chance to be a six seed if they win this game. I’m betting Denver won’t be able to get Drew Lock going this week, and Oakland will 2-0 Denver this year.

Philadelphia at Giants – Philadelphia. The Giants have zero defense. Doug Pederson just has to beat the Giants for the NFC East crown.

IND at JAX – Indianapolis. The Jaguars have a bottom five rushing defense, the Colts bread and butter. Gardner Minshew has played very unbalanced football since his benching for Nick Foles.

Tennessee at Houston. Houston. The king of ugly wins, Bill O’Brien beat a competitive Titans team in Nashville earlier this year. The Titans look a little better on paper but have lost two more games than Houston.

Washington at Dallas – Dallas. The Cowboys tend to play their worst on the road. Washington is also VERY BAD at football this year.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson will not be playing. But Steelers HC Mike Tomlin will still be coaching week 17.

San Francisco at Seattle – SAN FRANCISCO. I am too biased and cannot be trusted. F*** THEM BIRDS

Last week I was 11-5 on predictions. A few misses of mine were the Patriots losing at home to the Chiefs, the Saints losing at home to the 49ers, and Denver? Winning?? (What a time to be alive) I WAS right about the Falcons beating the Panthers. Dan Quinn may save his job if the Falcons win enough games this final stretch.


NY Jets at Baltimore. Baltimore. This is a matchup of the number one rushing attack (Baltimore) against the number one rushing defense (Jets). I expect this to be a low scoring game, Gregg Williams is a respectable defensive coordinator and should force Lamar to throw more than he is used to. The Jets bottled up Josh Allen and Daniel Jones fairly well this year (the only dual threat QBs they faced this season). Not that they have the offensive firepower or ground game to make it matter. Ravens win.


New England at Cincinnati. New England. The Patriots offense is dysfunctional enough this might be a one score game. Hopefully they got enough gametape of the Bengals sideline to figure it out.

Tampa Bay at Detroit. Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is 4-1 in their last five games. Lions 3rd string QB David Blough has been up and down in his time with Detroit, looking impressive against Dallas and really not impressive against Minnesota. Jameis won’t have to really deal with the cold Michigan weather as Detroit has a dome stadium.

Houston at Tennessee. Tennessee. I spent a lot of time on this one. It’s tough to ignore the Texans win over New England. Tennessee is playing better defense, and Ryan Tannehill has performed like an elite QB since taking over in Nashville. The Titans own the turnover ratio (+5 Titans vs -1 Texans) and have home field advantage. If the Texans win I believe it will be because Vrabel can’t defend against Watson as a dual threat. FUN FACT: Both these teams beat the 9-4 Chiefs and lost to the 5-8 Broncos.

Denver at Kansas City Kansas City. I’m excited for this game, I believe Denver has a real chance to win with Drew Lock coming off a strong performance against Houston. Kansas City owns the turnover differential, has homefield advantage, and dropped 30 points on Denver’s defense last time they played, and that was with 19 passes thrown by backup Matt Moore at QB. Watch for Drew Lock to post another strong performance as his on field chemistry with Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant and the rest of the offense develops. We haven’t seen enough of Drew Lock and Rich Schangarello to definitively say what the offense will look like week in and week out.

Miami at New York Giants Giants. I’m going with Eli and the Giants kind of good receiving corps can be more productive than Fitzpatrick and Parker, Gesicki, etc.

Philadelphia at Washington Eagles. What a trainwreck. I guess pick the Eagles. Derrius Guice just got hurt.

Seattle at Carolina Seattle. Carolina couldn’t beat a drum right now.

Chicago at Green Bay Green Bay. The first game between Packers/Bears was actually close. Trubisky’s been too inconsistent to rely on. The Packers are the more balanced team and have home field advantage.

Minnesota at LA Chargers Minnesota. The Chargers had a feel good win against the apparently hapless Jaguars. This may be Doug Marrone’s last season in Jacksonville after failing to capitalize on a pretty open AFC south. Kirk Cousins is getting Adam Thielen back. The Vikings have a pretty easy win here.

Jacksonville at Oakland Oakland The Jags will use these remaining games to really see what they have in Minshew. Jacksonville’s defense really hasn’t performed up to the usual standard. The Jaguars 2nd to last run defense should be easy pickin’s for a strong Oakland run blocking group even if they don’t have Josh Jacobs in the lineup.

Cleveland at Arizona Cleveland This should be a close game. Baker gets a confidence booster against the last ranked Cardinals passing defense. The Browns defense is actually respectable and will keep Murray on his toes this game.

LA Rams at Dallas Dallas I see the Cowboys early and often challenging Wade Phillips defense. Cooper, Gallup, and Cobb should challenge the Rams deep secondary. The Rams have struggled most with very capable offenses. Dallas is admittedly unstable but can score against middle of the pack defenses. I think the Rams will struggle to contain Lawrence and the Cowboys finally win a game.

Atlanta at San Francisco San Francisco I’m not entirely convinced the Falcons WANT to win this game. Potential trap game for San Francisco if they don’t take Atlanta seriously. Falcons beat the Panthers twice and the Saints in New Orleans. The more talented team should safely win here.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh Buffalo This might be my game of the week. The Steelers are surprisingly competitive winning games on defense and a dominant turnover ratio (+12). They will have to defend a dual threat QB in Allen and play an equally tough defense with the Bills still healthy. I see the main difference in this contest the Steelers inability to consistently run the ball or even pass at a high level. The Bills can run and Allen is respectable at finding the open man. The Bills by one possession.


Indianapolis at New Orleans New Orleans The Saints boast an impressive +11 turnover ratio, a top five run defense, and homefield advantage. The Colts have become a running team. Sean Payton doesn’t lose too many of these.



Utah State Aggie Jordan Love had a terrific 2018 season and returned to school with a pretty NOT GREAT year in ’19. While it’s not too late to change his mind, Love has declared he will enter the NFL draft. I’m not convinced he is ready to step in and change a franchise in the next 12 months. All of this being considered, NFL teams tend to buy on a prospects highs and ignore their lows. Former Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg was a second round pick for the Jets. Hackenberg famously never became anything in the NFL after having a strong sophomore year before two bad college seasons. The QB class after Tua gets murky, and that is exactly where Love stands to gain the most. NFL voices have mixed feelings on potential draftees like Jake Fromm, Justin Herbert, and K.J. Costello. A team in need of finding an heir apparent at QB bit missing a first round pick, like, Chicago, could talk themselves into drafting Love in the second round if they get a bad case of FOMO. Love’s been described as a raw prospect with high upside but needing some fine tuning. Generally QB prospects described as raw can’t transition to the next level. Mahomes was one of the ‘raw’ prospects who was able to put it all together. I expect Love will end up in a situation similar to Rosen’s, passers not taken in the first round rarely get a fair shot at proving their worth in the NFL.

Song of the blog is Green Day’s Boulevard of Broken (Acoustic) played to clips of Todd Phillips Joker. It’s the best thing I’ve seen for a long time. Joker, while an uncomfortable watch, was the best film of 2019.


Week 14 predictions: Big OOF

Posted: December 5, 2019 in Football, New entries, NFL

I went 8-8 with my predictions last week. Big whiffs for me on the Patriots/Texans, Falcons/Saints and others.

Cowboys at Bears. Bears. Chicago has a plus four turnover differential, Dallas is minus three in that category. The Bears are an ugly team, but they have a top defense which Dallas has struggled with. Dallas SHOULD (on paper) win this game, like so many other games they have lost. I’m going with Chicago’s defense being too much for Moore and Prescott.

Indy at Tampa. Tampa Bay. The Bucs have shut down the run game on defense well. In a shootout between Jameis with Godwin and Evans and Brissett with the Colts receivers, I’ll trust Winston, even with his interceptions.

Miami at NY Jets Miami. It seems the Dolphins coaches and players don’t actually WANT to lose games. Losing to the Bengals reveals a substantial level of disorganization within the Jets.

San Francisco at New Orleans. New Orleans. The Saints rock a +11 turnover ratio and homefield advantage. I hate picking against the 49ers in back to back weeks. Sean Payton is a “been there, done that” head coach. Saints win at home.

Detroit at Minnesota. Minnesota. The Vikings tend to win games they SHOULD win. Detroit’s David Blough surprised me with his deep ball willingness with an early toss to Kenny Golladay. Minnesota should be able to control the game with Cook and Mattison, and Cousins is throwing well since the end of Q1 2019.

Denver at Houston Houston. Houston won in an impressive way against New England. Handling rookie QB Drew Lock should be enough for DC Romeo Crennel to handle.

Washington at Green Bay Green Bay. I’m 60% confident of this outcome after watching the Panthers lose to Washington last week.

Cincinnati at Cleveland Cleveland. The Browns front four should be able to handle Cincy’s ground game and offensive line play. With Chubb, Hunt, and David Njoku now coming back, the Browns should be able to muster enough of an offense to beat the Bengals at home.

Baltimore at Buffalo  Baltimore. Both of these teams lost to Cleveland (seriously). Buffalo has a lot of wins against teams drafting in the top ten. Baltimore has big boy wins against New England and San Francisco. Buffalo’s defense should keep this close, but Harbaugh should close this one out.

Carolina at Atlanta Falcons. The Panthers defense hasn’t been able to hold up as of late, allowing 30 points in the last 3 games. The Falcons are also apparently the league’s best team at onside kicks? TE Jaeden Graham stepped up in a big way in Austin Hooper’s absence. The Panthers just fired a damn good coach. And they lost at home to Atlanta.

LA Chargers at Jacksonville Chargers. I’m seeing the Chargers deep secondary outplaying Gardner Minshew. Minshew has talent, but the Chargers can play strong enough defense here.

Tennessee at Oakland Tennessee. The Titans are a different team with Tannehill quarterbacking that offense. It’s the time of year Derrick Henry turns green and runs for 80 yards in one play every week.

Kansas City at New England. New England. The Patriots defensive backs should be able to hold up against Hill and whoever else is catching passes from Mahomes. They just need to get a kicker for this game.

Pittsburgh at Arizona. Steelers. Kyler Murray is looking really strong so far this year, zero lost fumbles and only six interceptions. Unfortunately the Cardinals defense is AWFUL. Pittsburgh’s defense has been creating turnovers this season, Murray is talented but still a rookie with a bad offensive line. He’ll get sacked a lot this game.

Seattle at LA Rams. Seattle. The Seahawks play just good enough defense to keep them in games time and time again. Russell Wilson is having his best year and the Rams don’t have the defensive talent to contain him and cover his receivers.

NY Giants at Philadelphia. Eagles. The Eagles have the stronger front seven, and Saquon Barkley for one reason or another hasn’t been the same force this season as he was in 2018. Eli Manning will be playing quarterback for the Giants.

I’m going to be wrong on a ton of these. I don’t know how to reliably predict Tampa vs. Indy or Tennessee vs. Oakland.

Song of the Post is After Dark by Mr. Kitty

Be Safe