Archive for December, 2020

The Patriots lose slowly and agonizingly to the Bills 38-9 (2021 QBs for New England)

Posted: December 28, 2020 in Football, NFL, NFL Draft
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Realistic Free Agent and Veteran Options:

The Crown Jewel – Dak Prescott – Not really realistic unless Belichick retires and New England hires Kellen Moore to be their head coach. And they offer Dak Prescott a dozen Dunkin Donuts franchises in addition to the 40 million guaranteed he’ll want. Dak would not want to leave Jerry Jones’ wealthy and warm embrace for cold New England with no receivers barring a major contract dispute.

The Ex-Pats – Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo – I believe the starter for New England in 2021 will be one of these two quarterbacks. Belichick has already put his stamp of approval on both of them and wanted them around for when Tom Brady decided to move on. Both have shown they can handle starting quarterback duties in and out of New England and would operate Josh McDaniels’ offense better than just about anyone. Brissett is the safer option with Jimmy’s health issues, but both would be attractive options for the Patriots to get a trusted vet in at QB. Garoppolo is technically still under contract with the 49ers so they would have to trade for him if San Francisco doesn’t cut him and is open to a deal.

The Grizzled Vets/Mentors – Ryan Fitzpatrick, Philip Rivers, Josh McCown – Fitzpatrick looks FANTASTIC in that Dolphins offense with Chan Gailey. Miami may pay him to stick around another season to support Tua, he would be an excellent bridge quarterback to help tutor a young QB should the Patriots actually draft someone. Rivers doesn’t look like a spring chicken in Indianapolis, but the Colts are winning with him at Quarterback and may lure him back for another season while they draft their future passer. McCown has looked serviceable, but only came out of retirement for the Eagles. He may not be willing to play for another team, especially a bad team. Josh McDaniels would have to adjust the offense for any of these players, they’re not likely to learn the playbook in one offseason with a bunch of castoffs at wide receiver.

The Jilted Ex-lovers – Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota – I actually really like all of these options. Taylor does the best job of protecting the football (something Belichick values) and may want another crack at a starting job after being stabbed out of a chance to start with the Chargers. Taylor brings some badly needed mobility to an offense that needs all the help it can get and has started several games. A late round pick who worked his way to the top of the depth chart at Buffalo, Taylor is the most “Belichick”ian of this group. Pro Football Focus’s Sam Monson and Steve Palazzolo repeatedly pointed out how Andy Dalton on the same drive would make a stellar throw, and a horrendous throw on the very next play. Dalton actually earned a second contract and has been a key part of some great Bengals teams. He will be certainly motivated to compete for a starting spot where ever her goes next. Winston’s still got a great arm and can throw with the best of them, but tarnished his reputation in 2019 with 30 interceptions, which the Patriots will not like. Overall, Jameis hasn’t thrown tons of interceptions if you look at his career as a whole, and his ceiling is the highest of anyone they could realistically get. Jameis may not be the locker room presence that the Patriots are looking for in their next quarterback, but beggars can’t be choosers. Mariota is under contract with the Raiders for $10 million. The Raiders’ Gruden and Mayock would likely want a minimum of a third round pick to trade Mariota to a (much hated) AFC foe. Mariota looked great in the Raiders loss to the Chargers where Derek Carr got injured.

The (I say this with love) Scrapheap – Mike Glennon, Nick Mullens, Blake Bortles, Brett Hundley, etc. – Most of the rest of the group would likely compete for a backup spot in New England, if at all. Mike Glennon has put up better than expected stat lines with Jacksonville and may be attractive to Belichick and Caserio as a competitor for the starting job. Gardner Minshew is an interesting thought exercise, but the Patriots would likely have to give up a lot to get him. Assuming Jacksonville drafts Trevor Lawrence, Minshew would immediately be the league’s top backup quarterback in an offense he’s already familiar with and for dirt cheap.

Sam Darnold – I kind of forgot about Darnold. It is possible the Jets will hold on to Darnold in 2021, but even if they don’t draft a QB at #2, they probably won’t stick with him long term. Darnold was terrific as a prospect coming out of USC. If they can get Darnold for a third round pick, that may be worth it for New England. Dwayne Haskins is now available, but I don’t see how New England can support a young passer who looks like he needs to get back to fundamentals and go somewhere he can be a backup for a bit.

The Draft:

There are lots of great quarterbacks in this draft class. I’m only listing some of the names I feel the Patriots might like or who might be a fit for what Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick value in a QB. I’m excluding the big four (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance) as their traits are well documented already.

Mac Jones – I see this as the best fit for New England. Jones doesn’t have a ton of starts under his belt, but Belichick is known for being close to Nick Saban and Jones if nothing else is accurate and doesn’t turn the ball over.

Kyle Trask – This is a quarterback I think the Patriots would’ve loved back in 2001, Trask is accurate with several starts against NFL caliber defenses. Trask is not a mobile guy and had loads of talent around him at Florida. He will not have elite talent around him at New England and Belichick will likely prefer a mobile quarterback. Belichick will still value quarterbacks with starting experience, and may be on the Patriots draft radar in round 2 or later.

Sam Ehlinger – Ehlinger hasn’t had much “WOW” tape but has been a consistent, above average performer for Texas for four years of starts. Ehlinger rushed for 4 touchdowns and over 100 yards against Oklahoma, so he’s a capable runner. I personally don’t love his tape, but Gil Brandt has mentioned Ehlinger as among his top seniors for the 2021 class. Ehlinger has gotten it done with a variety of different receiving talent at Texas.

Jamie Newman – Newman’s been described as a more raw, high ceiling prospect rather than a safe, high floor guy. This pick would make sense if the Patriots somehow ended up with Ryan Fitzpatrick or Philip Rivers, a quarterback nearing retirement who would be willing to mentor a rookie/youngster. Newman has made some great throws at Wake Forest and is an athlete with the ball in his hands. If the coaching staff feels they can “coach him up” to protect the football better, Newman could be a steal even in the first round.

Kellen Mond – Mond is a quarterback who would’ve met most of the ‘Bill Parcells QB rules‘. Like Ehlinger, Mond has a ton of starts under his belt. Mond has played against loads of SEC defensive talent and coaching, about as good an education as you can get for the NFL. His accuracy percentage slowly improved into the 60s at Texas A&M and he’s demonstrated he’s an above average runner with the ball in his hands. Mond is a hard worker and will likely be able to handle the challenges of being an NFL rookie on a bad team. Mond’s looked inaccurate at times and will likely need a strong supporting cast to look great (like Kirk Cousins or Andy Dalton). Mond’s lower career yards per attempt suggest he’s more comfortable checking the ball closer to the line of scrimmage than going for the big play. I don’t see this being an issue with Josh McDaniels and the Patriots offense.

Brock Purdy – It’s not yet clear whether Purdy goes back to school in 2021 or declares for the draft. 2020 has been a rough year for him, but there’s been enough buzz around his name that he would likely get drafted in the mid to late rounds. Purdy had some real stinkers in 2020, but generally did a good job of distributing the ball at Iowa State. Like many college offenses, Purdy’s job was more focused on quickly finding the open receiver rather than throwing it deep to his star wideout. Purdy would definitely be a third round selection at the earliest, Belichick’s shown he’s willing to wait on drafting a quarterback even if he has a pressing need.

Brady White – White’s more one of “my guys” that I’ve felt has played at a high level at Memphis, though smarter dudes than me aren’t impressed with his tape. Memphis looks like they run a little more of a vertical offense, but White has no problem taking the checkdown if that’s what’s asked of him. White’s a true senior with a load of starts under his belt, though it’s mainly come against AAC defenses. I feel White would give the offense a little higher of a ceiling, as White has one of the stronger arms in the draft, White’s not a runner, with a career total of negative 23 rushing yards.

Today’s song is “Staring at the sea without you next to me” by San Holo

No Trades Mock Draft

Posted: December 26, 2020 in Football, New entries, NFL, NFL Draft
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Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Quarterback

Jets – Zach Wilson, Brigham Young Quarterback – I would trade back here if I were the Jets. I’m not doing trades in this mock. Wilson is playing well at the right time, though I think he needs to gain weight.

Bengals – Penei Sewell, Oregon Offensive Tackle – Ja’Marr Chase or DeVonta Smith would make a ton of sense here as well.

Panthers – Trey Lance, North Dakota State Quarterback – Lance would thrive in Joe Brady’s offense, if anyone would.

Falcons – Christian Barmore, Alabama Defensive Tackle – I see Barmore as the best front seven player available here.

Dolphins – Ja’Marr Chase, LSU Wide Receiver – Value pick for Dolphins, Chase is elite.

Eagles – RaShawn Slater, Northwestern Offensive Tackle – Not a value pick, but the Eagles can’t expect to compete with a group of injury prone offensive linemen. Slater’s played great this season.

Lions – DeVonta Smith, Alabama Wide Receiver – Default value pick until we know who is drafting next April.

Cowboys – Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech Cornerback – Jerry could move on an interior offensive lineman here, but Dallas has made that a priority already with Tyler Biadasz and Connor Williams. Farley’s ceiling is sky high.

Chargers – Micah Parsons, Penn State Inside Linebacker – Alignment of value pick and need for the Bolts. Chargers could take another offensive lineman here like Christian Darrisaw or Samuel Cosmi.

Giants – Patrick Surtain II, Alabama Cornerback – The Giants defense is for real, Surtain could free up more bodies to rush the passer in theory.

Broncos – Justin Fields, Ohio State Quarterback – I don’t know that Fields would be available here, but even John Elway wouldn’t mess up this pick.

Vikings – Daviyon Nixon, Iowa Defensive Tackle – The Vikings aren’t horrible in the secondary, but are horrible up front. Nixon’s been ID’d by Daniel Jeremiah as a pocket penetrator who should succeed in the NFL.

49ers – Jaycee Horn, South Carolina Cornerback – Horn’s got the size and the tape. If the 49ers don’t take a Quarterback, Horn makes the most sense for them.

Patriots – Mac Jones, Alabama Quarterback – Patriots coach Bill Belichick is no idiot and know he needs a passer. Jones is young, but rumor has it NFL talent evaluators like his tape.

Bears – Jaylen Waddle, Alabama Wide Receiver – The Bears are a bad team on offense.

Raiders – Kwity Paye, Michigan DL – Paye can rush the passer, the Raiders still have no pass rush after shipping out Khalil Mack.

Ravens – Wyatt Davis, Ohio State OL – The Ravens wouldn’t use an elite receiver seeing Marquise Brown’s non-involvement in that offense. Davis can make them stronger for inside runs.

Football Team – Kyle Pitts, Florida Tight End – Pitts has plenty of opportunities to be the star on a middling offense.

Cardinals – Asante Samuel Jr, Florida State Cornerback – Samuel doesn’t need the name to get drafted, he’s dominated this season. Not the tallest corner, Samuel could eventually replace Patrick Peterson.

Dolphins – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame Linebacker – The Dolphins have four linebackers on their roster in total, but still need to be able to cover from that position. While not the biggest linebacker at 215 lbs, he’s always around the football. Played well against Clemson and the elusive Travis Etienne.

Jaguars – Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech Offensive Tackle – Cam Robinson isn’t the dude. Generally advisable to make the left tackle position all good when drafting a new quarterback.

Colts – Gregory Rousseau, Miami Defensive End – Rousseau could hypothetically take over for Justin Houston. Very high ceiling edge rusher. Colts need a quarterback but do not think Trask or any available quarterbacks would be draft-worthy here.

Browns – Trevon Moehrig, TCU Safety – Andrew Berry is a stats nerd, and Cleveland has to get creative to not reach majorly here. Moehrig is arguably the top safety in the draft.

Buccaneers – Levi Onwuzurike, Washington DL – Bucs took Vea from Washington and that worked out for them. Will still need to replace Suh.

Jets – Jalen Mayfield, Michigan OT – In need of a right tackle, Mayfield has experience starting at right tackle and won’t need to learn the position. Mayfield is a stellar blocker in his own right.

Titans – Greg Newsome II, Northwestern CB – Newsome showed his stuff by making the Ohio State passing attack look like a bunch of useless goons.

Steelers – Samuel Cosmi, Texas OT – Another team that needs a quarterback, the Steelers have failed to establish the ground game and the blocking up front is a big reason for that. Cosmi’s shown top pass and run blocking this season.

Saints – Dylan Moses, Alabama Linebacker – Moses is a value selection here. The Saints will be looking at wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks here.

Bills – Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma Center – Bills interior offensive line hasn’t been great. A true center, he could move to guard and has tons of snaps pass protecting at Lincoln Riley’s pass heavy offense.

Packers – Rashod Bateman, Minnesota WR – The Packers should still be making wide receiver a priority for Rodgers and Love’s sake.

Chiefs – Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame OT – The Chiefs are losing three starting offensive linemen and Notre Dame is sending another NFL caliber blocker to the next level.

Today’s song is an old one, You’ve got to go by Above and Beyond (Seven Lions remix)

Fixing the Jets (Again)

Posted: December 25, 2020 in Football, New entries, NFL
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Get a head coach – I’m not clear on how Adam Gase still has his job, or why he was hired in the first place. A coach with experience like Doug Pederson, Jim Caldwell, or Bill O’Brien would be good. Iowa’s Matt Campbell probably has better offers than to go to New York, but he would help bring a different culture than the “same old Jets.”

Get a quarterback – While the Jets could draft Justin Fields, Trey Lance, or Zach Wilson this organization has repeatedly failed to develop young passers in Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Christian Hackenberg, and now Sam Darnold. I think they should sign a veteran passer like Tyrod Taylor or Andy Dalton and trade back to add key players (offensive tackle, wide receiver, interior OL) to the roster to eventually be able to support a young quarterback instead of just wasting another rookie’s career like they’ve done several times before. Throwing money at Dak Prescott would be my first move, but Prescott’s getting paid every year on the franchise tag, so he would have little incentive to accept a deal from a bottom team like the Jets.

Draft good players – If the Jets got a haul to trade back, they could reasonably draft top tackle prospect Jalen Mayfield who has 16 starts at right tackle to play across from Becton. Standing pat at two and taking Sewell would probably be leaving value on the table with Becton’s early success at left tackle. The Jets will likely draft in the mid to late 20’s with the Seahawks first round pick. While Joe Douglas is supposedly an “O-line guy” and may want to draft another offensive lineman, drafting a wide receiver or cornerback will likely grant them the greatest value at that spot. Ohio State’s Chris Olave or Florida State’s Asante Samuel Jr. might be available and provide strong value late in the first.

Hold the Line – Paying up for a higher end offensive lineman like Patriots guard Joe Thuney or Washington’s Brandon Scherff might cost a lot but the Jets line, even with the revamping Douglas did for the ’20 season hasn’t blocked consistently well with the exception of Mekhi Becton. Jets QB1 will perform with more confidence if the line can buy him some time to read the defense. The Jets have usually spent early draft picks and big money on defensive players, and while defense still matters, creating a hospitable environment for a new quarterback will increase their chances of winning football games more than having a killer front three.

Ron Rivera’s Washington Football Team Stomping into the playoffs

Song of the post is Odesza’s Loyal

2021 Offseason will be pivotal for 49ers Lynch, Shanahan

Posted: December 8, 2020 in Football
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49ers GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan have put together one winning season since taking over before the start of the 2017 season. Assembling a roster that’s suffered heavily from injury this season, the 49ers sit at 5-7, clawing towards an 8-8 season if they can win three of Washington, Dallas, Arizona, and Seattle in the remaining five games of the year. Nick Mullens is the presumptive starter at QB for the 49ers, going 2-4 as the starter in 2020. While the 2019 season went well for the 49ers, fans are growing tired of the injuries excuse as it continues to be an issue. Lynch needs to stabilize what has been an inconsistent quarterback situation to keep the 49ers relevant long term.

Fix the QB situation – Barring a major deal by luring Dak Prescott or trading for Teddy Bridgewater, the 49ers will need to find a passer in the draft to lead the team in 2021 and beyond. Jimmy Garoppolo looked competitive in the second half of 2019, but his injury prone nature keeps him (and the 49ers) from being a consistent competitor. The 49ers will likely miss out on the big 4 (Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Wilson) unless they are willing to trade up and can find a partner like the Eagles or Panthers. This would leave Lynch drafting Mac Jones/Kyle Trask in the first or a mid round project like Sam Ehlinger or D’Eriq King in the 4th or 5th rounds (49ers do not currently have a 3rd round selection in the 2021 draft). Due to Jimmy’s unreliable health, getting aggressive in trading up allows San Francisco to really take more control of their most important position. A quarterback like Trey Lance, while lacking a lot of passing snaps has demonstrated the “run and shoot” style of play Shanahan might value. Shanahan is one of the coaches who could get the most out of Lance’s mobility and on the run accuracy.

Balance the books – The 49ers will be forced to make some difficult decisions regarding who to resign and who to let walk. Richard Sherman, Solomon Thomas, and Trent Williams are all key players whose contracts run out after ’20. They will not likely be able to pay everyone and will lose some big names in the offseason. Keeping Sherman and Thomas would be nice, but keeping Trent Williams will be essential unless Lynch plans to replace Williams in the draft.

Build the Offense – The impact of players like Henry Ruggs, Stefon Diggs, and Chase Claypool have shown how one player can drastically improve an offense. If the 49ers don’t feel comfortable moving on a QB in the draft early, they can add win value in deep threats like Elijah Moore or Rashod Bateman. Samuel and Aiyuk are great at what they do, but the 49ers still don’t have a great deep speed receiver. Shanahan’s crush on running the ball shows us the value a real deep threat would have for San Francisco in forcing defensive coordinators to move defenders further away from the line of scrimmage.

Replace Robert Saleh – Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has not left the organization yet, but rumors point to his departure after the seasons’ end. Relative newcomer DL coach Kris Kocurek may get the nod, as the defense improved noticeably after he joined the team in 2019. Linebackers coach DeMeco Ryans who’s had success working with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw and played as a successful linebacker for Houston for several seasons boasts a strong resume for the job as well.

Song of the post is Show Me by San Holo