Archive for the ‘New entries’ Category

Trey Lance throws the ball downfield early and often at North Dakota State. He has a strong arm, seems to often place the ball just where his guy can catch it, and finds the open man to catch his passes. Lance ran for over 1,000 yards at 6.5 yards per carry in 2019 (on his way to another 1-AA national title). Overall, Lance looks great. It’s concerning to me that North Dakota State vastly outperforms the other teams it plays that Lance doesn’t ever have to actually make any difficult throws, or go through his reads. Watching his game tape, his receivers are often WIDE OPEN. I have concerns that he may struggle against actual defenses that aren’t ten levels below the offense he’s running. North Dakota State has won eight of the last ten national championships, they are more dominant in their arena than Alabama, Clemson, LSU or any other D-I team is in D1 football. This team in 2016 beat #13 Iowa with Easton Stick at quarterback (Stick was a 5th round selection, nowhere near the player Lance is viewed to be). North Dakota State has a season opener against University of Oregon, which game I believe will be monumentally important in showing the football world how Lance performs when he is NOT racing a Ferrari against proverbial Smart Cars. Oregon recruits actual NFL talent and has a smart coaching staff. There is a lot to like about Lance’s on field performance, I can see why talent evaluators like Daniel Jeremiah are excited about him. Because the level of competition NDSU plays is so low, it’s hard for me to say what Lance would look like in the NFL, where the skill gap between his teams and the teams he faces are much closer than they are at North Dakota State. 

I only watched one game of Justin Fields so far, the Clemson/Ohio State game in the College Football playoffs of 2019. Fields’ stat sheet made him look like he had a rocky outing (30/46, 320 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 14 carries for 13 yards). After watching the game I felt Fields played very well, and the referees made some bad calls that impacted the outcome of the game. His first interception was a sideline pass that Isaiah Simmons made an ultra athletic diving play to pick off. Simmons has absurd speed, height and athleticism even for the NFL game, most of the time that pass gets thrown it goes out of bounds or to his receiver. Fields should shoulder some of the blame for this throw, he understands Simmons is an elite defender, he is partially to blame for this interception, really Isaiah Simmons just made a crazy play on the ball. Fields’ second interception was a timing throw to Chris Olave on a route where Olave fell down and Nolan Turner redeemed himself after being badly burnt on routes previously by giving Justin Fields his third and final interception of the season. On plays like this, Fields has to trust Olave will show up at the catch point or else the defense may have enough time to drive Fields into the turf. Fields did exactly what he should have done, his receiver didn’t show up to catch the ball, the defender was there and picked it off. This is not Justin Fields’ fault. Fields made lots of passes downfield which required accuracy, arm strength, and split-second decision making.

Trevor Lawrence is an elite college quarterback prospect, I feel Clemson ran more YAC (yards after catcb) plays that didn’t demonstrate his arm. Both of Lawrence’s passing touchdowns were brilliant catch and run efforts by running back Travis Etienne. Lawrence himself had a 67 yard run, showcasing his own athleticism. Whether it was excellent coverage, play calling, or Lawrence’s comfort level, Lawrence didn’t pass down field often and I felt Fields outshone him as a passer in this game. Lawrence looks like an excellent thrower of the football overall and I look forward to watching more of his play as the Covid season progresses.

I really enjoyed watching tape of Memphis’ Brady White. White repeatedly threw the ball downfield into relatively tight coverage. Many college offenses run safer “catch in space” plays while Memphis really lets him loose with his arm. White doesn’t play a lot of elite teams as the starter at Memphis. In his bowl game against Penn State, White threw a lot of accurate, downfield passes. He was credited with two interceptions. One was a last second toss while being sacked which he threw towards his offensive line. This was an irresponsible pass but more of a coach-able moment than a deeply instilled passing habit. The interception to Marquis Wilson was Brady White trying to thread a needle too narrow. The pass was right on target for his receiver, but White has to respect the coverage better as Wilson jumped in front of the pass and intercepted the ball. I still feel White played pretty well overall, I would certainly like to see him adjust better for better competition in the future.

Iowa State’s Brock Purdy has gotten attention from some early 2021 mock drafters as a potential early quarterback in the 2021 draft. I felt that while Purdy was not a bad decision maker, most of his successful passes were a product of his offense rather than high level passing. Purdy has lots of plays showing him throw a jump ball to 6’7″ tight end Charlie Kolar, or throwing a quick pass to one of his receivers and letting the receiver create yards after the catch. While I understand this is likely a great gameplan for actually winning games in college, it’s more challenging to see what Purdy looks like if he is asked to make challenging throws. Like Trey Lance, I don’t feel I can confidently say I know who Brock Purdy is as a quarterback because of circumstances out of his control. He seems to protect the football well and take the plays that the defense gives him, but he is not asked to throw downfield enough for me to say how well he can actually throw downfield.

I’ve already written how I feel about Louisville QB Micale Cunningham. I feel he is being underrated and maybe a top two quarterback in the draft class. He has a 22-5 TD/INT ratio, a QBR of 50+ in all but two contests in 2019 (Kentucky QBR 50.0, Clemson QBR 22.6), and is an effective runner. Cunningham may spark concerns he can’t handle a high volume passing offense at Louisville where he hands the ball off a lot and was credited with 122 rushes himself. He has demonstrated impressive quick twitch arm strength and great accuracy. In a rough loss to Clemson, Cunningham placed a 42 (air yards) yard bomb to Dez Fitzpatrick just outside the reach of first round draft pick corner A.J. Terrell. His lone interception went through the hands of wide receiver Tutu Atwell and into the hands of Clemson safety K’Von Wallace. I understand quarterbacks are tasked with protecting the football, this the type of pass Cunningham needed to be willing to risk throwing if Louisville wanted any chance at beating Clemson. The placement of the ball was close enough I blame Tutu Atwell more (although Tutu is a great receiver) for not bringing the pass down over Cunningham for throwing it.

There are still other quarterbacks I want to get into before the draft, guys like: Tanner Morgan, Sam Ehlinger, K.J. Costello, Davis Mills, D’Eriq King, Spencer Rattler, Alan Bowman, Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, and several more.

Teams likely to draft a quarterback early in 2021 draft:

  • Chicago – With Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace likely gone, it’s tough to know what direction Chicago will want to go at quarterback.
  • Carolina – Carolina looks to either be in position to draft their choice of quarterbacks, or to trade up if they aren’t in the top five. I’d have to believe Justin Fields or some 2020 newcomer would be their top choice, based strictly on current QB hype/overall performance.
  • New England – Bill Belichick will pass on every good quarterback prospect until round seven when he drafts Large WhiteMan from Obscure University. Realistic connections could leave us with Mac Jones from Alabama considering Saban’s/Belichick’s connections, or a “lower-risk” QB like Kyle Trask at Florida.
  • New Orleans – I think New Orleans, who really liked Patrick Mahomes, will really like Trey Lance because of his deep ball and athleticism. Even if Trey Lance struggles a little to go from playing Illinois State to the Atlanta Falcons twice a year, the Saints will be confident they can work with his aggressive throwing he’s already shown.
  • Jacksonville – You can credit Shahid Khan, Jaguars owner, for identifying and pushing the Jaguars to draft Gardner Minshew. If Gardner does not work out long term, Jacksonville would likely to be thrilled with any of the big three (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance). Trevor Lawrence might feel like more of a safe pick after flopping hard on small school risk Blake Bortles. Jamie Newman at Georgia would also be a name to monitor for Jax, as he may blow up in 2020.
  • Pittsburgh – Kevin Colbert may ride out Ben Roethlisberger for 2021 and start fresh in ’22. If he follows the trend of other general managers, I could see the Steelers looking at Jamie Newman and drawing comparisons because of his size and scrambling ability to Ben Roethlisberger.
  • Indianapolis – With Indianapolis, I’m reaching deep into the mists of the unknown. They could pursue a quarterback like Spencer Rattler or Alan Bowman if they develop at their current QB factories (Rattler projected to start at Oklahoma, Bowman at Texas Tech under Matt Wells). They would likely gamble on Trey Lance or be happy with Fields/Lawrence if they lose enough games.

Song of the post is “Why am I here” by Bonjr

 

The Buccaneers depth chart looks STACKED on paper. They have the deepest secondary in the NFL.

bucs offense

bucs defense

This defense has everything. Beefy defensive tackles (Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea, Khalil Davis), adept pass-rushers (Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett), one BILLION early round picks in the secondary (Sean Murphy-Bunting 2nd round pick), (Carlton Davis 2nd round pick), (Antoine Winfield Jr, 2nd round pick), (M.J. Stewart 2nd round pick), (Justin Evans 2nd round pick), (Mike Edwards 3rd round pick), (Jamel Dean 3rd round pick), (Jordan Whitehead 4th round pick).

And while yes, the Bucs did get rid of Jameis Winston, they still have Bruce Arians’ system on offense. Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, and Jameis Winston all hit career highs in INTs thrown in their first year under Arians’ offense. This strongly implies Tom Brady will have a high INT season in 2020. Tom, (like Carson Palmer) is unlikely to really mesh with the offense until his second year in that system. Jameis, while not a perfect quarterback, had a highly volatile season specifically in Arians’ system. Winston has thrown his fair share of bad interceptions but his TD/INT ratio was nearly identical to Carson Palmer and Andrew Luck under Arians. He was never given that second season to show what he can do. Tampa should’ve traded or cut him before the season if that was their plan all along. Instead they just made him look worse than he was and set back their quarterback development by one year. Maybe Jason Licht thought he had a golden opportunity to land the GOAT in Tom Brady, but Brady’s going to be 43 before the start of the season. I love Tom, but he didn’t have booming arm strength even in his prime (never mind now), he’s smart with the ball and great with intermediate throws, but Jameis was a better fit for that offense in almost every way. Winston still has top-level arm strength and has made great downfield throws throughout his career.

jameis lions

jameis toss atl

winston ravens

Brady is going to have a stat line of 28 TD, 23 INTs and everyone in the NFL will say Brady is washed up and too old when in reality his performance in Arians’ offense will be the same as any other good quarterbacks’. Of course I could be totally wrong about all of this. If Tampa incorporates enough of what Tom ran in New England such that the offense is a comfortable change for him, maybe he’ll have a smoother entrance to Florida.

Jameis recently accepted a $1 million dollar contract to be the backup in New Orleans. He may have turned down more money in other places to rebuild his image as a “Sean Payton” guy, but Jon Ledyard on twitter stated that he believes this is the only contract offer Winston received. In either case, Winston is making less money than Drew Lock this season as he prepares to show his resume for the 2021 season.

I do expect Carolina to be the last place team in the South, but Marty Hurney may have assembled a team too good to draft Justin Fields without trading up. The Panthers drafted stalwart NFL caliber defenders like Jeremy Chinn, Troy Pride, and Derrick Brown who all are good enough to start in the NFL. On offense they signed UDFA Omar Bayless (caught 4 TDs against SMU), former NFL rookie of the year Teddy Bridgewater, and deep threat Robby Anderson. Never mind Christian McCaffrey playing in his prime. I always fall into the trap of believing in a teams’ upside. The Panthers may end up as bad as everyone else is predicting, but I see improvement all over the roster.

Atlanta acquired several former first round selections. New to the team is: RB Todd Gurley, TE Hayden Hurst, WR Laquon Treadwell, DE/OLB Dante Fowler, DE Charles Harris. Outside of Hayden Hurst and Dante Fowler, I don’t know that any of these will make a substantial impact on this team. The Falcons decision to allow new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris call plays on defense will make a substantial impact though.

New Orleans continues to field a strong roster on both sides of the ball. Newcomer Emmanuel Sanders will give Brees a second real receiving threat. The Saints always look extremely competitive in the regular season only to get pushed around by Mike Zimmer in the playoffs. Even though the Vikings had very forgettable corner play in 2019, they were still enough to suppress New Orleans’ offense. Brees is still super accurate, they should still be firing on all cylinders on offense.

Final (Definitely wrong) predictions for 2020:

Carolina: 7 – 9

Tampa Bay: 8 – 8

Atlanta: 10 – 6

New Orleans: 11 – 5

Song of the post – ‘Right here, right now‘ – San Holo

ruggs

Henry Ruggs’ twitter profile photo

I HAVE NO IDEA

  • Henry Ruggs III recorded the fastest 40 in the combine at 4.27.
  • He also tied for the second highest vertical (regardless of position) at 42 inches. This means Ruggs will be more competitive for jump balls even against taller DBs. For frame of reference, Bengals John Ross (speedster who ran 40 yard dash of 4.22) jumped a vertical of 37 inches).
  • Henry Ruggs registered only 1 drop (against 40 receptions). Previous deep threat receivers, John Ross, Darrius Heyward-Bey, struggled with drops.
  • Raiders general manager Mike Mayock cited Ruggs’ speed in an interview and his ability to open up the run game by drawing defenders to him.
  • Ruggs has the second largest hands in the Combine amongst wide receivers (10 1/8″). He has larger hands than 6’6″ Collin Johnson, 6’4″ Chase Claypool, and several others. John Ross (record holder for 40 yard dash) had 8 3/4 inch hands. Darrius Heyward Bey had 9 inch hands.

Ruggs is not just be the “speed” receiver that he’s been advertised to be. His hand size, impressive vertical, surgical hands make him a highly attractive player to have on a team. “Silver and Black Films Presents” did a great job breaking down why Henry Ruggs is a good fit for the Raiders offense.

The 49ers may have had Ruggs as their number one receiver

The 49ers had an established need for a receiver after starter Emmanuel Sanders left in free agency, so they would’ve had impetus to replace him. They had the opportunity to draft CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy, but instead drafted defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, shortly after Vegas drafted Ruggs. The 49ers reportedly had been in touch with Henry Ruggs quite a bit before the draft, and may have had Ruggs as their number one receiver and chose to draft a defensive player when Ruggs was already taken.

Ruggs is an easy guy to root for, watching him in interviews he’s very personable and genuine.

 

 

 

thicc

It’s better to g̶i̶v̶e̶ run between the tackles than it is to receive

Outside of Green Bay’s decision to draft quarterback Jordan Love (which I fully support) Green Bay leaned heavy into installing a power run personnel group. The Packers had a clear need at WR2 to take some of the load off of Davante Adams. This 2020 draft was known for it’s plentiful wide receivers available throughout. Literal K.J. Hill, Ohio State’s all time catch leader, was available in the last round of the draft. The Packers did not draft one wide receiver. Not one. Not even a round seven flyer.

Green Bay? More like Protein Bay, Am I right?

D--9FG5XkAYeyKt

In round 2, Green Bay drafted running back A.J. Dillon. The former Boston College Eagle weighs in at 247 lbs, and stands at 6 feet and zero inches tall. (Just tall enough to get tinder matches.)  Dillon, whose physical profile very closely matches former Buccaneer Mike Alstott, has a highlight reel filled with inside runs that break for 10 plus yards. Dillon runs with surprising straight line speed, he’s not an ankle breaker in change of direction. Dillon is an incredible back to watch. Dillon is more of a 3rd/4th round prospect, seeing Green Bay take him early showed a clear interest in having Dillon be a focal part of the future. This is more interesting considering Green Bay currently boasts one of the NFL’s finest young running back in dynamic runner Aaron Jones.

Hold the line

330px-Jake_Hanson_(cropped)

Brian Gutekunst drafted three offensive linemen. Two of which (Oregon center Jake Hanson, Simon Stepaniak, Indiana) were top performers in the 225 lb bench press at the NFL Combine. (Hanson placed 4th at the combine with 33 reps, Stepaniak 2nd with 37 reps). In a draft where 45 offensive linemen were drafted between 32 teams (1.4/team) the Packers about doubled the average teams’ investment into offensive line. It should be noted that all three offensive linemen Green Bay drafted project to line up as interior offensive linemen. Guards and centers are generally asked to be above average run blockers.

Green Bay’s third round selection went to Cincinnati tight end Josiah Deguara. Deguara was noticeable at the combine for his impressive bench press performance. His 25 reps were best in class among tight ends. Lance Zierlein, NFL draft analyst, wrote how Deguara “Takes run-blocking duties to heart.”

 

The success of Kansas City has inspired several other teams to recruit speed threats to outgun the Chiefs. Green Bay knows what they want to be, and aren’t afraid of setting their own trend. This draft was wildly unpopular with fans and draft analysts alike, and while I think Green Bay could’ve easily drafted a skilled wide receiver to reload at an important position, I respect that they have a game plan and are sticking to it.

Miami drafts Tua Tagovailoa and they didn’t even have to trade up.

kim jong un

The Raiders draft the first wide receiver off the board…..Henry Ruggs?

confusion

The Chargers put their faith in a tall, cannon-armed Justin Herbert

kevin

The Giants don’t draft Mekhi Becton or Isaiah Simmons (Andrew Thomas)

frank dunphy

The Packers anoint their future king, Jordan Love

joker

The Seahawks draft another third round prospect in round one (Jordyn Brooks)

dead dove

The 49ers drafted younger versions of their departed 2019 key players instead of upgrading the secondary (Javon Kinlaw, Brandon Aiyuk)

tenor (1)

On the next episode of N.F.L.

  • Why haven’t the Cowboys signed Dak Prescott to a long term deal?
  • Are the Buccaneers good?
  • Which team will draft Jalen Hurts?
  • Is Jarrett Stidham really going to be the Patriots quarterback in 2020?
  • What will happen to Chris Jones, Jamal Adams, Yannick Ngakoue?

The song of the (short) post is “John Doe” by B.O.B. feat. Priscilla

 

1. Cincinnati – Joe Burrow, LSU quarterback. I guess this is the pick.

2. Washington – Chase Young, Ohio State defensive end. Miami and other teams are trying to trade up here? Snyder seems pretty intent on standing pat here.

3. Miami – Mekhi Becton, Louisville offensive tackle. Supposedly Miami wants to keep their 5th selection and trade up to three. For an offensive tackle. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I guess that could be Andrew Thomas or Jedrick Wills. Becton ran a crazy 40 and is an enormous, 370-lb human being.

4. NY Giants – Tristan Wirfs, Iowa offensive tackle. I will probably regret changing this pick from Isaiah Simmons. If Miami actually moves ahead of NYG to draft a Tackle, that implies Gettleman wants a tackle for real. Rapoport said he believes Simmons will go in the 7-12 range.

5. Miami – Justin Herbert, Oregon quarterback. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross wanted to move up for Burrow, and has concerns about Tagovailoa’s health long term. Albert Breer reported that Dan Marino is a huge Justin Herbert fan, who has been an influential voice in the Dolphins’ front office in the past.

6. LA Chargers – Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama quarterback. The Chargers supposedly wanted DeShaun Watson, but took Mike Williams because Rivers wasn’t ready to retire. Telesco just has to not overthink the situation. Tagovailoa is the best quarterback in this draft. They could maybe draft a tackle/defensive player and tough it out with Tyrod Taylor for 2020.

7. Carolina – Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State cornerback. The Panthers will probably want Derrick Brown. But Jeffrey Okudah is the best player available.

8. Arizona – Derrick Brown, Auburn defensive tackle. Rumor has it the Cardinals really want Derrick Brown. They just might get him.

9. Atlanta (through Jacksonville) – C.J. Henderson, Florida cornerback. Dimitroff has traded up in the past and reports are surfacing he wants Henderson. JAX would be a real threat to draft him, so he would probably target the Jaguars to get Henderson. An Atlanta 2nd round pick would satisfy the Jaguars loss of value from 9 to 16 on the Jimmy Johnson trade board.

10. Philadelphia (through Cleveland, Eagles 2nd and 2021 2nd) – CedarianCeeDee” Lamb, Oklahoma wide receiver.  Browns general manager Andrew Berry has a close relationship with Eagles GM Howie Roseman, and may be looking to trade down. Roseman is reportedly interested in trading up to get Lamb.

11. NY Jets – Jedrick Wills, Alabama offensive tackle. Fant received a 3 year, $30 million dollar deal, and wasn’t terrible (allowed 6 sacks) last season. Joe Douglas is a “lineman” guy and could plop Wills at right tackle, Fant at left, and tell himself they’re okay at tackle.

12. Las Vegas – Jerry Jeudy, Alabama wide receiver. Jeudy is a great pick for any team. The Raiders happen to have the worst receiving group in football.

13. San Francisco –  Henry Ruggs, Alabama wide receiver. The 49ers have contacted Ruggs quite a bit during this offseason. I am a 49ers fan and do not want this to be the pick here. But it seems likely.

14. Tampa Bay – Andrew Thomas, Georgia offensive tackle. Thomas is the last of the premium tackles.

15. Denver – Isaiah Simmons, Clemson linebacker/safety.  I’m certain Denver wants a wide receiver. Simmons is a best player available pick, and Fangio will covet a hybrid defensive warrior like Simmons.

16. Jacksonville – Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina defensive tackle. The Jaguars would be lucky to trade down and STILL get Kinlaw. Jacksonville has dominated at the line of scrimmage in the past and Kinlaw would continue that tradition.

17. Dallas – Cesar Ruiz, Michigan guard/center. Dallas lost stalwart center Travis Frederick to retirement. Jerry has repeatedly shown he wants a decorated group up front. Ruiz is one of the top interior offensive line prospects and has a long way to grow at 20 years old.

18. Detroit (Through Miami) – A.J. Epenesa, Iowa defensive lineman. Epenesa is a versatile, edge rusher/run stopper/inside/outside defensive lineman that I think Patricia will value.

19. Las Vegas – Ross Blacklock, TCU defensive tackle. The Raiders will want to build out their line, and a 300 lb defensive tackle who can dunk a basketball is EXACTLY who Gruden would salivate over.

20. Jacksonville – A.J. Terrell, Clemson cornerback. Terrell plays a lot of press and could fit in well with how Todd Wash has been running things in Jacksonville. Terrell might go higher than this, depending on how the draft unfolds. At some point Jacksonville has to reload their secondary, Terrell would be a damn fine corner to do it with.

21. Cleveland (through Philadelphia) – Austin Jackson, USC offensive tackle. Jackson played left tackle at Southern Cal where the Browns badly need help.  Jackson held up well against Utah’s absolutely NFL-riddled defense with backup Matt Fink at QB.

22. Minnesota – Trevon Diggs, Alabama cornerback. The Vikings are SO BAD at corner. His brother Stefon may tell him to stay away, but Diggs is a big, aggressive corner the Vikings could really use.

23. Indianapolis (through New England for #34 and #76) – Jordan Love, Utah state quarterback. Bill Belichick feels gross when he drafts in the first round. This is a Colts type of move. Love could get his ideal situation to sit behind Philip Rivers and then play for a team a with an elite offensive line and innovative play caller in Frank Reich. The Colts are very aggressive and would be a team willing to risk drafting Love.

24. New Orleans – Justin Jefferson, LSU wide receiver. This pick makes too much sense to not happen. Jefferson played in the Joe Brady offense that he stole FROM New Orleans. Brees will be leaning on Sean Payton to draft a receiver. Sanders is on contract for three years, but he’s already an old dude.

25. Minnesota – Jalen Reagor, TCU wide receiver. Kirk Cousins is going to need someone to throw to, and Jalen Reagor is one SPEEDYBOI. He could feasibly operate as a deep threat in the way Stefon Diggs once did.

26. Detroit (Through Miami) – Xavier McKinney, Alabama safety. McKinney is a nice, safe, defensive back pick that Patricia/Quinn can make and feel warm and cozy at night. Patricia had Saban-coached players around him at New England.

27. Seattle – K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU defensive end. What if the Seahawks actually drafted a player that wasn’t a random third rounder? What if they didn’t draft a rotational player for a Mountain West team? The world may never know. Seattle actually has no edge rushers. And some people really like Chaisson’s late season surge.

28. Baltimore – Patrick Queen. LSU linebacker. Queen showed top coverage chops in ’19. Harbaugh and DeCosta could also roll with a wide receiver here, Michael Pittman or Aiyuk maybe.

29. Tennessee – Marlon Davidson, Auburn defensive lineman. Davidson can lineup next to DaQuan Jones and bring pressure down the middle. They have needs at guard and cornerback here, too.

30. Green Bay – Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma defensive tackle. The Packers often draft big men on defense. Gallimore made a splash at the combine. They drafted DL Rashan Gary least year who absolutely dominated as a combine star.

31. San Francisco – Grant Delpit, LSU safety. The 49ers may not be able to find a worthy trade partner here if Indianapolis has already moved up. There’s a big maybe with Dallas moving up for Jalen Hurts, but the 49ers would be moving down 20 spots. And there’s a real chance Dallas wouldn’t have to move up to 31 to get Hurts. The 49ers would have to teach Delpit to be a more solid, wrap-up tackler, which they should be able to do.

32. Kansas City – Denzel Mims, Baylor wide receiver. The Chiefs reportedly want to trade up to get Henry Ruggs. If they fail to get him, Mims would be a solid consolation prize. Mims displayed he can run an actual route tree at the senior bowl. Mims also ran the 40 in the 4.39 range and is 6’3″.

Song of the blog is “Last orders” (Live) by Nothing But Thieves

1. Cincinnati – Joe Burrow, LSU quarterback. The Bengals would probably trade out of here for, say, four first round picks, but they wouldn’t draft any one else here.

2. Washington – Chase Young, Ohio State defensive end. While I won’t rule out Washington drafting Tua Tagovailoa. I think Chase still has the majority vote here. The Redskins don’t entirely know what Haskins looks like as a starting quarterback, and Chase Young is the “sure thing” of the draft.

3. LA Chargers (Trade with Detroit. Detroit gets 6th, 37th, 112th(4th round pick). LA gets 3rd overall.) – Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama quarterback. Tua’s repeatedly shown he’s as healthy as he can be after the combine. The Chargers have signed proven players to rebuild the offensive line and have the offensive skill group (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Austin Ekeler) to compete right now.

4. NY Giants – Isaiah Simmons, Clemson linebacker/safety. – Gettleman knows when to pick the best player available. Tackle will be a tempting choice here, and if Simmons is gone, I think they would take Mekhi Becton or Tristan Wirfs. Simmons can play two or three different positions on the field at a high level.

5. Miami – Justin Herbert, Oregon quarterback. I am not personally sold on Herbert, but some smart people like Daniel Jeremiah and Gil Brandt really like Herbert. Miami OC Chan Gailey is expected to run a spread offense in Miami, one that would take advantage of Herbert’s arm strength if he were drafted. This isn’t Miami’s only move, but I can’t imagine the Fish NOT taking a Quarterback. Herbert is even one of the few quarterbacks to check off all the Bill Parcells QB rules. Parcells is technically Brian Flores’ coaching grandfather (Bill Belichick was Parcells’ defensive coordinator before getting a head coach job at Cleveland).

6. Detroit (Through LA Chargers) – Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State cornerback. Okudah is an ELITE cornerback, drawing comparisons to Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore.  The Lions have a giant, gaping hole at corner after trading away Darius Slay, and corner’s an important position to be strong at regardless. The Lions could also decide they like Isaiah Simmons here.

7. Carolina – Derrick Brown, Auburn defensive tackle. GM Marty Hurney has valued drafting players near the line of scrimmage. They could draft a wide receiver here to help fulfill Rhule’s vision of the offense. The Panthers have long held an identity on defense as being a physical team. Brown could be the player Star Lotulelei was meant to be.

8. Arizona – Jedrick Wills, Alabama offensive tackle. Trading for DeAndre Hopkins allows Arizona to address a badly suffering offensive line group. Wills is a technician who thrived at Alabama. Wills can line up at his natural position of right tackle and let Humphries continue to start at left tackle.

9. Jacksonville – Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina defensive tackle. Kinlaw really performed well at the senior bowl practices. The Jaguars have a history of dominating at the line of scrimmage on defense, and Kinlaw has shown he does that well.

10. Cleveland – Mekhi Becton, Louisville offensive tackle. Cleveland has one of the league’s best young running backs (Nick Chubb) and would benefit more from Becton’s strengths as a devastating run-blocker than most teams. The Browns had the most success with Baker in 2018 when they were happy to run the ball a lot. New head coach Kevin Stefanski comes from a team (the Vikings) that ran the ball the 4th most in the NFL. Becton can pass protect better than anyone they currently have slated to start at left tackle.

11. NY Jets – Tristan Wirfs, Iowa offensive tackle. Wirfs showed up at the combine with a 40 in the 4.8 range and already had a reputation for his crazy impressive strength. Wirfs can play guard or tackle in year one and brings badly needed blocking to a struggling NY Jets offense.

12. Las Vegas – CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma wide receiver. Lamb has helped Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray get drafted number one OVERALL. Lamb is the top receiver in the class.

13. San Francisco –  C.J. Henderson, Florida cornerback. The 49ers offense can elevate players without elite talent. Shanahan will certainly want a stud like Jeudy or Lamb, but getting Henderson allows the 49ers to play better defense, and ultimately run the ball more instead of having to play catch up so much. John Lynch was part of a super bowl winning defense in Tampa Bay and will continue to prioritize defense.

14. Tampa Bay – Andrew Thomas, Georgia offensive tackle. I would go with a wide receiver here, especially if Jeudy is available. Thomas has played at right tackle before, and could start for Joe Haeg if he wins the job.

15. Denver – Jerry Jeudy, Alabama wide receiver. Anyone that plays quarterback for Denver would have two great receivers in Sutton and Jeudy for years to come.

16. Atlanta – Xavier McKinney, Alabama safety. Dimitroff has been comfortable drafting Crimson Tide alumni before. Mckinney can take someone’s job as a starting safety or contribute as an important nickel.

17. Dallas – Matt Hennessy, Temple center. My guess is as good as anybody’s. Is Jerry Jones just going to draft a defensive back because they need one? Jerry has always made a priority of building a beast on the offensive line. The analytics crowd and the old-school crowd both really like Hennessy, the small school standout as both a pass and run blocker.

18. Miami – Austin Jackson, USC offensive tackle. Jackson is the best pass blocking tackle available here, and played against a high level of competition at Southern California. OC Chan Gailey is expected to run the spread on offense, their linemen will need to be able to hold up while Herbert finds his open man.

19. Las Vegas – Grant Delpit, LSU safety. The Raiders play a lot of zone coverage where Delpit would be at his best. While Delpit’s missed tackle issues are well documented, he covers at an elite level. Delpit demonstrated top coverage skills and could help the Raiders take on Travis Kelce, Noah Fant, and Hunter Henry as a taller (6’3″) safety.

20. Jacksonville – Isaiah Wilson, Georgia offensive tackle. Daniel Jeremiah’s confident Wilson will be a first round pick. Wilson is about as big as Mekhi Becton and a powerful blocker. Wilson was a right tackle at Georgia, so either Taylor or Wilson would move to left tackle eventually.

21. Philadelphia – Justin Jefferson, LSU wide receiver.  The Eagles are expected to target wide receivers in this draft. Jefferson caught over 100 passes in his ’19 season. He’s 6 foot 3, and ran a 4.43 40. They may trade up for Lamb if they can find a willing trade partner.

22. Minnesota – Jeff Gladney, TCU cornerback. Gladney covers well and is an all around strong corner. Minnesota’s drafted several busts at corner in the past 5 years. Gladney’s got a very high floor. He’s not as tall at 5’10”, but plays like his height isn’t a problem.

23. New England – Kristian Fulton, LSU cornerback. The Patriots play a lot of press, Fulton would fit well with that system. The Patriots have swung and missed on a number of  recent corners. In 2018, Bill traded UP for corner Duke Dawson in the 2nd round. Duke Dawson is currently a Bronco. They also spent a high pick on corner JoeJuan Williams who only played in 9 games and made 5 total tackles.

24. New Orleans – Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State wide receiver. Aiyuk is a YAC specialist with an ENORMOUS wingspan. His 80 inch wingspan is wider than almost all of the tight ends in this class. Aiyuk fits well with the Saints current offense, and can help the Saints’ next QB adjust to the NFL as well. The Saints need what Aiyuk provides. Their offense stuttered against a Vikings team without elite corner play.

25. Minnesota – A.J. Epenesa, Iowa defensive lineman. Epenesa is a strong, all-around d-line prospect as a pass-rusher, run-stopper, and even forced four fumbles in 2019 at Iowa. His size will help him be particularly adept at playing the run, something Coach Zimmer will value.

26. Miami – Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota safety. Grier and Flores have shown they value a strong secondary. Winfield had dynamite season in 2019 at Minnesota. Both Flores and Grier are defensively minded leaders, and both saw Antoine Winfield Sr. play in the prime of his career.

27. Seattle – Patrick Queen, LSU linebacker. Seattle needs to improve at defending dual threat quarterbacks. They have great linebackers in Wagner and Wright, but they could get even stronger in the middle of the field with Queen and his toolkit.

28. Baltimore – Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma linebacker. Murray was all over the field at Oklahoma. The Ravens added Calais Campbell for a late round pick, but really need help at linebacker. Murray has shown versatility in coverage, run defense and occasionally as a pass rusher.

29. Tennessee – Marlon Davidson, Auburn DL. The Titans play a physical brand of football. Davidson brings a versatile profile and can play at end or tackle. The Titans could look to restock at cornerback here.

30. Green Bay – Michael Pittman Jr., USC wide receiver. Pittman’s stock has soared with his giant frame and excellent drop rate. The Packers don’t often draft wide receivers in the first round. I would be shocked to see them not draft a wide receiver with how skinny they are outside of Adams.

31. Indianapolis (Trade with San Francisco. SF gets 34th, 122nd(4th round pick). IND gets 31st.) – Jordan Love, Utah State quarterback. The Colts have a selection at 34, so they wouldn’t have to give up that much to get here. The 49ers will be motivated to trade down if they don’t HAVE to have someone here at 31, they don’t have another pick until round 5. Drafting Love is the type of bold move we see from the Colts regularly. Frank Reich is one of the more forward-thinking minds in football, he’s one of the leaders that can make Love the best version of himself.

32. Kansas City – Jonah Jackson, Ohio State guard. Jackson is maybe the best guard in this draft. He’s got experience at center and guard, giving him versatility if the Chiefs offensive line suffers from injuries like it did in ’19. Andy Reid teams have often drafted offensive and defensive linemen early, and Jackson played well against top competition at Ohio State.

Song of the blog – “Better Days” by Onerepublic. The “feelings” part of my brain shit its pants watching this video.