Archive for the ‘New entries’ Category

Post Senior Bowl mock draft

Posted: February 27, 2023 in Football, New entries, NFL, NFL Draft
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I have Chicago trading down twice, once with Houston and again with Carolina. Chicago can draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba an old friend to their quarterback if they are serious about giving Justin Fields a chance at being a starting quarterback. The future first round picks netted in their trade down moves can be used to move up in the draft if Fields doesn’t work out and they want Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in 2024.

Houston moves up and acquires Nick Caserio’s latest 5-star quarterback (the only in this draft class) in Bryce Young.

NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has been hyping Anthony Richardson and I believe he will go early in the draft. Carolina looks like they could be a real football team with a good quarterback, and Richardson might actually play better in the NFL than in Florida with okay pass protection.

Arizona taking Jalen Carter at three is pretty standard stuff, unless they get a trade down offer they like. I believe the Colts will like Levis because Colts head coach Shane Steichen should be able to unlock a more raw prospect like Levis. Stroud had a terrific game against Georgia, but may struggle on a team without strong receiver play, like Indianapolis.

Seattle goes with the big End in Tyree Wilson, they drafted two first rounders out of Texas Tech in the past 7-8 years in Jordyn Brooks and LJ Collier. Jon Schneider is a genius but clearly has his own big board and doesn’t care about perceived value when making draft selections. Seattle has favored the bigger defensive ends so they may genuinely value Tyree Wilson more than draft darling Will Anderson.

Detroit gets a dream pick with Will Anderson, they can take CJ Stroud here if Brad Holmes is high on Stroud.

Obviously the Raiders moved on from Derek Carr and will be watching tape on all the major quarterbacks in this draft class. Raiders general manager Dave Ziegler went on record saying: “it doesn’t mean we’re going to have an immediate answer this year. ” about finding a new quarterback. I believe they would draft one of the “big 4” quarterbacks if one is available at seven. Stroud would have good weapons in Las Vegas with Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow and could reasonably be expected to succeed if Vegas can improve the pass protection in 2023.

Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot has been challenging to figure out as a drafting general manager. His first two seasons, he’s taken two tall, fast receiving weapons in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. The Falcons badly need pass rush and more competition at quarterback, but they have not made those positions a priority in the past, so I wouldn’t expect them to now. Quentin Johnston is an okay enough value selection at eight and fits Fontenot’s pattern of large fast men in the receiving group.

Philadelphia likes to target the trenches early in the draft but are very close to a superbowl and bringing in a top corner to possibly replace James Bradberry could a major priority. Gonzalez has the size to maybe cover Travis Kelce or another similar move tight end.

Tennessee needs a left tackle after cutting Taylor Lewan and can have their pick. Johnson feels the safest and attended the same school as head coach Mike Vrabel (Ohio State). Ran Carthon is a new general manager and may shake things up, but this selection is the easiest, most logical pick for them in this mock draft.

Houston drafts Jordan Addison to add a real receiving threat for Bryce Young. They have so many needs, this pick could be almost any position and it wouldn’t be wrong for them.

The Jets add a versatile lineman in Peter Skoronski. Offensive tackle continues to be a problem for the Jets.

The Patriots will inevitably trade down and draft some linebacker/safety from Northwestern Tech-State that no one has heard of because that’s just what they do. In Fantasy mock draft world, the Patriots draft a future left tackle in Broderick Jones after really struggling at both tackle positions last year. They badly need wide receivers and safety help. And corner help. And a new center.

The Packers get to draft another defensive back in the first round as Adrian Amos is not under contract and Branch is widely regarded as the draft’s premier safety/nickel.

I went a little kooky here, but Washington may choose to let Daron Payne walk and sign Bryan Bresee to replace him. Payne had a great contract year, but an experienced GM like Martin Mayhew knows you can’t pay everyone.

The Steelers typically value front seven players early in the draft. There are no blue chip left tackles available, unless you’re high on Jaelyn Duncan. They have impact defenders Cam Sutton and Terrell Edmunds on expiring contracts. Skinner is a huge safety who could step in right away and cover the growing trend of “big slots” and eventually move into a starting safety role. When the Steelers drafted Terrell Edmunds he was considered a reach, but Tomlin and the Steelers brass seem to value the bigger defensive backs enough to draft them high.

Detroit needs competition all over that defense and would love Joey Porter Jr.

Tampa Bay has cap problems and needs a quarterback. If they don’t trade up I believe they dive back into adding to the secondary. They likely cannot resign starter Jamel Dean, as they are paying $35 million to Tom Brady, among other financial obligations. Witherspoon is a technician and Buccaneers GM Jason Licht has invested early and often in the Tampa secondary.

The Seahawks don’t typically draft corners early and may not like the selection of defensive tackles at this point in the draft. John Michael Schmitz is a terrific center and could start for Seattle for a decade plus. This would be on the less zany picks of Jon Schneider’s first round picks. Their interior offensive line is a wreck and do not have 2022 starting center Austin Blythe under contract for 2023.

The Chargers have cap problems that will lead them to release Keenan Allen in my opinion. Allen has been used primarily in the slot in LA, where Utah TE Dalton Kincaid could line up based on his usage at Utah. Daniel Jeremiah says most teams have Kincaid as TE1 in the draft. The Chargers have had success with Utah players in the past.

Baltimore favors value, and value on defense in the draft. They have three 35+ year olds in the front seven in Calais Campbell, JPP, and Justin Houston. Drafting Myles Murphy in a strong locker room of defenders might be just what he needs to unlock his potential. Myles Murphy has been compared to Travon Walker (first pick overall of 2022 draft) from a physical height, weight, speed perspective.

Minnesota needs corner help as always. Starter Patrick Peterson may be on the move, and they are skinny outside of Peterson at corner. Smith is a fundamentally sound corner, he doesn’t have prototypical, Richard Sherman size at 6’0″, but held up against a rough SEC schedule.

Jacksonville looks uneasy at every offensive line position except left tackle. Jaguars GM Trent Baalke favors overly large defensive linemen from Power five programs but may like Mauch’s versatility if they retain Jawaan Taylor and need help inside or let Taylor walk and want a right tackle.

The Giants made the playoffs with Daniel Jones and scrapwork help at wide receiver. Zay Flowers is a legit wide receiver outside or in the slot. This is a marriage of needs versus value at pick 25. The Giants have a strong relationship with Boston College since former coach Tom Coughlin had coached at BC as well.

I believe Dallas will look very closely at Bijan Robinson here, but Dallas has long made offensive line a major priority in the draft. I believe Dallas will cut Tyron Smith, have Tyler Smith start at left tackle in 2023, and could value O’Cyrus Torrence to replace him at left guard.

Buffalo has had one of the NFL’s top defenses for two or three years, and their top safety play has been a big part of that. Jordan Poyer is not under contract and Micah Hyde is over 30 and played only two games last year due to injury. Sydney Brown is an excellent coverage safety and would start on the Buffalo defense.

Cincinnati doesn’t seem to need good offensive line play to win playoff games. I think Cody Mauch or O’Cyrus Torrence would make sense here if available. I picked Emmanuel Forbes for them so Bengals fans can talk about something other than Eli Apple next offseason. Forbes gave up three touchdowns to pair with six interceptions. PFF claims he was targeted only one time (one catch for six yards) by Bryce Young in their game against Alabama.

New Orleans typically favors offensive linemen and defense in the first round. Like Tampa Bay they have massive cap problems and are very thin at quarterback. Jameis Winston is their only contracted quarterback. Mazi Smith would make sense here, I have Lukas Van Ness just as a value selection. The Saints need help at corner and could go Deonte Banks or Kelee Ringo as well.

Philadelphia takes Luke Wypler in the annual “Will Jason Kelce retire” contest. PFF loves Wypler and correctly pointed out Centers don’t often declare his early. Some have speculated Philadelphia could take Bijan Robinson because of their perceived superbowl window.

The Chiefs may not keep Orlando Brown Jr. and have shown that offensive line is a priority for them. Harrison is experienced with pass heavy offenses coming from Oklahoma and may be Kansas City’s best bet at 30. They could also explore edge rusher and wide receiver here. If Travis Kelce retires, the Chiefs could target tight end as well.

If you don’t like my picks, it’s because I hate you and your favorite team.

Notable players not in this mock:
Bijan Robinson, Texas RB – Jeremiah and others claim Robinson is a top five player overall in this draft class. Where he goes is up in the air.

Josh Downs, UNC WR – Downs is a smaller slot receiver who may drop because he lacks the size and versatility of his peers

Kelee Ringo, UGA CB – Ringo looks like a surefire starter to me. His detractors claim he isn’t consistent enough to be a high pick.

Trenton Simpson. Clemson LB – Linebackers are becoming the fullback of the defense. Simpson doesn’t seem to have the coverage chops to be an exciting name in the draft circles.

Luke Musgrave, Oregon State TE – Musgrave looks like a late first round pick to me. I just couldn’t find a place for him in this mock draft.

Michael Mayer, Notre Dame TE – Mayer might be a top 15 pick. Teams 13-16 could justifiably draft him there. A lot of teams that like tight ends already have one, and don’t run 12 formation enough to justify drafting another tight end this early.

Today’s song of the post is “Alchemy” by Above and Beyond

2023 NFL Mock Draft (November edition)

Posted: November 2, 2022 in Football, New entries, NFL, Uncategorized
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Detroit – Will Anderson, Alabama DE – Detroit has the last ranked defense allowing the 2nd most rushing yards per attempt and the third most rushing yards per attempt. QB Jared Goff is being forced into bad throws by always playing from behind. Detroit will look at quarterbacks here, but neither have terrific upside and neither will experience any success playing on a team with the worst defense in football.

Houston – C.J. Stroud, Ohio State QB – Nick Caserio has a thing for five star quarterbacks. Houston has the worst run defense in football and needs receivers/tight ends for their quarterback. I expect Houston to move on from Davis Mills if Bryce Young or CJ Stroud are available when they draft.

Carolina – Hendon Hooker, Tennessee QB – Hooker is having a career year beating Alabama and throwing 21 TDs to 1 INT. The old school staff in Carolina will appreciate Hooker’s plus height (6’4″) and extensive starting history (35+ starts) while the analytics crowd will like his career-best passing stats and dual threat ability that Stroud and Young haven’t demonstrated. Hooker grew up in North Carolina before attending VA Tech and Tennessee.

Pittsburgh – Jordan Addison, USC WR – I wanted Peter Skoronski for the offensive line, but Addison makes too much sense. Addison is a terrific receiver no matter where he goes, having a rapport with Pickett at Pittsburgh only helps Pickett’s development.

Jacksonville – Jalen Carter, Georgia DT – Jaguars GM Trent Baalke has a thing for big defensive linemen. He drafted Oregon teammates Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner to play defensive line when he was with San Francisco. Carter is a terrific prospect as a pass rusher and against the run and played alongside 2022 jaguars first round pick Trevon Walker at Georgia.

Las Vegas – Peter Skoronski, Northwestern OT – The Raiders offensive line is still in bad shape. Carr will have more time to throw if Peter Skoronski can learn to play on the right side of the line. Skoronski is one of the top prospects in the draft earning praise for his run blocking and pass protection.

Tampa Bay – Bryce Young, Alabama QB – Even if Tom doesn’t retire, it would be hard to Tampa to pass up Bryce Young in the draft.

Philadelphia (From New Orleans) – Bryan Bresee, Clemson DT – Fletcher Cox may finally retire this offseason on Bresee would give the Eagles plenty of competition to replace him. Philadelphia has long made OL/DL a priority early in the draft. Bresee is a top pass rusher in the draft and earned commendation on his lean build from PFF.

Houston (From Cleveland) – Quentin Johnston, TCU WR – The Texans are a bad overall roster. They are skinny at wide receiver. Johnston is a native Texan and a huge target. PFF has lauded his YAC ability and would help QB1 for Houston open up the pass game, and consequently, the run game.

Seattle (From Denver) – Myles Murphy, Clemson DE – Seattle has avoided the rebuild and looks to go to the playoffs this year. Their defense is a problem and Murphy is great against the run and a strong pass rusher, both areas of weakness for Seattle.

Arizona – Broderick Jones, Georgia OT – Jones has excelled as a pass protector this season and his 6’4″ height might be preferable for Murray’s height situation. Arizona has struggled on offense and in pass blocking.

Chicago – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State WR – Chicago badly needs weapons and Justin Fields is looking like he may work out for Chicago long term.

Green Bay – Kelee Ringo, Georgia CB – Until a new general manager takes over in Green Bay, or Aaron Rodgers retires, Green Bay will continue to favor defense and secondary early in the draft.

Detroit (From LA Rams) – Cam Smith, South Carolina CB – Detroit has a bottom tier secondary, Smith is a top shelf corner in the draft. Detroit could also look at wide receiver if someone catches Brad Holmes’ eye.

Indianapolis – Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State OT – The Colts used to be the gold standard for offensive line play. The Jonathan Taylor/Frank Reich offense can work again once they have balanced blockers on the line.

Cincinnati – Nolan Smith, Georgia OLB/DE – Cincinnati would benefit from Smith’s pass rushing skills. The Bengals continue to struggle at offensive line and look anemic without Jamarr Chase.

New England – Jordan McFadden, Clemson OT – McFadden is a four year starter at Clemson and New England’s normally steady offensive line play has been anything but this season.

Washington – Brian Branch, Alabama CB – Washington’s secondary needs love at corner. They could also look at QB if there is someone they like here or wide receiver.

Atlanta – Andre Carter II, Army DE – Carter is 6’7″ and a highly productive pass rusher at Army.

Denver (From Miami through San Francisco) – Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M Safety – Kareem Jackson can’t play forever, the Broncos can draft at a position of need or they can draft for value. Johnson is an intriguing safety prospect who can replace Jackson in the near future.

LA Chargers – Michael Mayer, Notre Dame TE – The chargers wide receivers have had difficulty staying healthy. Mayer brings value in the run game is a serious upgrade as a receiving threat as well.

Seattle – Trenton Simpson, Clemson LB – Simpson has covered well in the slot and has the size to help in stopping the run.

Jets – Anton Harrison, Oklahoma OT – The Jets cant keep their offensive line healthy. Harrison is not the dream prospect that Skoronski or Jones is, but would help keep QB1 for the Jets upright better than the revolving door they’ve had.

Baltimore – Joey Porter Jr., Penn State CB – Baltimore has questions to answer about Lamar Jackson and the type of offense he’s going to thrive in if he remains a Raven for the long term future. Porter Jr. has excellent size and the Ravens will be very familiar with his name.

Kansas City – B.J. Ojulari, LSU DE – Kansas City has one of the strongest rosters, but could use help rushing the passer outside of Chris Jones.

Dallas – Trey Palmer, Nebraska WR – The Dallas offense can be the highest scoring in football with enough receiving weapons. Palmer’s had a breakout season

New York Giants – Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee WR – Hyatt played well against Alabama and is having a terrific season overall. The Giants are suddenly relevant and in need of capable wide receivers.

Tennessee – Ryan Hayes, Michigan OT – A major part of Blake Corum’s rushing success, Hayes could supplant injury prone Taylor Lewan at left tackle.

Minnesota – Jacob Cowing, Arizona WR – The Vikings are enjoying a ton of immediate success under Kevin O’Connell. Cowing could help the Vikings break the damn in arms races against teams like Buffalo and Kansas City.

Buffalo – Jordan Battle, Alabama Safety – Buffalo is experiencing injury issues from their highly touted safety tandem, Battle would’ve been a top pick in 2021, but chose to return to school.

Philadelphia – Bijan Robinson, Texas RB – The Eagles have a complete roster and their record reflects that. Robinson would give them an immediate boost on offense as a runner/receiver if Roseman wants to capitalize on what may be a short SuperBowl window with Jalen Hurts on a rookie contract and the whole team clicking.

Today’s song is Lost at Sea by Zedd

Mock Draft 2.0

Posted: February 22, 2022 in Football, New entries, NFL, NFL Draft
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Jacksonville – Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan DE – Hutchinson is playing like the best player in the draft. He draws an extra blocker in the pass rush and is great against the run. The Jaguars have a ton of holes. They were bottom five in sacks in 2021. Everyone and their grandmother has Evan Neal as the pick here. I think Jacksonville leaves the best player on the board by doing that.

Detroit – Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon DE – Teammates with 2020 Lions first round pick Penei Sewell, Thibodeaux has devastating pass rush moves. If he has effort issues in run defense, Dan Campbell and company can coach said issues “up.”

Houston – Evan Neal, Alabama OT – Drafting Neal can protect Davis Mills and/or set up the roster to better support their quarterback of the future. Laremy Tunsil played five of a possible seventeen games last season and has a max of two seasons left on his contract. Lovie Smith will surely want Kyle Hamilton as well.

Jets – Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame S – Hamilton’s got absurd range and can move around the field, even as a pass rusher if needs be. He has free safety skills and strong safety size. Not a lot to think about with this pick.

Giants – Charles Cross, Miss. State OL – Cross allowed zero sacks and zero pressures against Alabama. He’s not the same run blocker as Ikem Ekwonu, but is above average in run blocking and pass pro. Brian Daboll will want an offense that can run and pass well.

Carolina – Ikem Ekwonu, NC State OL – The Panthers badly need offensive line help and “Icky” is regarded by some as the top dog in the whole draft. Carolina will be under some pressure to draft a quarterback here. No quarterback will last long behind the current Panthers offensive line.

Giants (From Chicago) – Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati CB – I expect Gardner will be discussed as one of the best corners in recent memory after a few seasons. Even against Alabama’s vaunted receivers he allowed 14 whole yards. He’s a scheme fit for what Don Martindale’s defense.

Atlanta – Drake London, USC WR – Let’s just say (Falcons General Manager) Terry Fontenot has a thing for tall guys. There is a power vacuum in the NFC South with Tom Brady retiring, London could play a big part in Atlanta getting back into the playoffs. Ryan will begging for an offensive weapon with Pitts drawing double coverage now. The Falcons still badly need pass rush, but the quality here is a little riskier than at the top.

Denver – Derek Stingley Jr., LSU CB – Denver will surely be in the market for a veteran quarterback (Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson). New general managers rarely get two swings at the quarterback position. George Paton is a risk averse guy, something we saw last season when he drafted Patrick Surtain II over Justin Fields, I don’t believe he will want any of these quarterbacks for that reason. New Broncos DC Ejiro Evero comes from LA where they had Jalen Ramsey remove a top receiver from the offense’s game plan. Stingley (if healthy) can have that same impact for Denver.

Jets (From Seattle) – Devin Lloyd, Utah LB – The Jets have bigger needs, but Lloyd is a prototype linebacker who reminds me of Micah Parsons. Lloyd doesn’t have quite the size and may not be as great a pass rusher as Parsons, but his coverage skills and run defense should more than justify this pick. The Jets will be looking to add reinforcements at offensive line with Mekhi Becton looking more like a question mark and the interior struggling as well.

Pittsburgh (Trade with Washington) – Malik Willis, Liberty QB – Pittsburgh can move up with probably only giving up one additional first round pick and get their guy. Mike Tomlin has liked Willis a lot. Unless Washington needs to get their quarterback here, they can move back nine spots and get an extra pick in 2023.

Minnesota – Treylon Burks, Arkansas WR – Adam Thielen is getting older and the Vikings could use help in the receiver department. Kevin O’Connell had plenty of star wide receivers in LA for the quarterback to throw to. New general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will value passing production and the skill Burks brings. Adofo-Mensah comes from the Browns analytics friendly front office and should value wide receivers highly.

Cleveland – Garrett Wilson, Ohio State WR – The Browns definitely need help at wide receiver after departing with Odell Beckham. About 40 percent of Wilson’s yards were YAC yards, respectable for a receiver with as much attention on him as Wilson.

Baltimore – Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa OL – Baltimore is one of the steadiest teams in the NFL. They run the ball more than anybody. While Ravens GM Eric DeCosta isn’t known for drafting small school players early, it would make sense to make an exception for Trevor Penning. Penning excels in run blocking and allowed a mere two pressures against Iowa State.

Philadelphia (From Miami) – Zion Johnson, Boston College OL – Zion Johnson is a man’s man. He played well at the senior bowl and is a great run blocker. He took snaps at center which shows versatility that would appeal to the Eagles situation without Brandon Brooks and possibly without Jason Kelce.

Philadelphia (From Indianapolis) – George Karlaftis, Purdue DE – Karlaftis is still somewhat new to Football and has some tackling issues to work out. This man is a behemoth and could possibly even move inside if needed. Karlaftis had seven hurries against Iowa, he should push Derek Barnett to maybe start day one.

Chargers – Trent McDuffie, Washington CB – I would have the chargers take a receiver or even a tight end, but they reload at defensive back early and often. McDuffie is a great value pick here. There will be run-stuffing defensive tackles throughout the draft for LA.

Saints – Matt Corral, Ole Miss QB – Corral tightened up the turnovers in 2021 and showed off his quick release. Plus the Saints don’t mind having a short quarterback. Mickey Loomis could look to draft center Tyler Linderbaum if he’s not thrilled with any of the quarterbacks in this class.

Philadelphia – Martin Emerson, Miss. State CB – Veteran SEC corner with terrific size. While Emerson looked flawed against Alabama, he’s got a higher ceiling than many of his peers and gave up three touchdowns on the season.

Washington (Trade with Pittsburgh) – Jameson Williams, Alabama WR – Jameson Williams is a great asset for Scott Turner’s offense. He bullied corners all season long, if his medical checks out he’d fit well in this offense.

New England – Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson CB – Booth is a strong corner and New England relies on excellent coverage for their defense to operate. Booth was excellent in man coverage in 2021.

Las Vegas – Devonte Wyatt, UGA DT – Wyatt is a strong all around defensive tackle. He’ll improve the Raiders interior pass rush and shoddy run defense.

Arizona – Jermaine Johnson, FSU DE – Chandler Jones looks like he is out the door in Arizona. Johnson is a great player with double digit sacks at Florida State in ’21. He played well at the Senior Bowl.

Dallas – Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma DT – Winfrey came to life in the Senior Bowl. The Cowboys defense doesn’t have a strong interior presence. Winfrey gives them a real inside pass rush option.

Buffalo – David Ojabo, Michigan DE – Buffalo has Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison on free agency. Ojabo would be a huge asset to their DL rotation, if not a starter.

Tennessee – Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina OLB – Tennessee runs a 3-4 so Enagbare would a be a fit. Enagbare had a great senior bowl performance and would give Tennessee the option to move on from either Bud Dupree or Harold Landry.

Tampa Bay – Jalen Pitre, Baylor DB – Tampa has some big decisions to make at QB and wide receiver. They were thin at corner last season. Unless they trade this selection for a big name QB, Pitre would make an aggressive slot corner where they have struggled in 2021.

Green Bay – Roger McCreary, Auburn CB – The Packers like to draft corners early. If Rodgers has a voice in this years’ draft, they could maybe take Trey McBride, as resigning Robert Tonyan will be tough if they want to keep Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.

Miami (From San Francisco) – Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa C – Mike McDaniel’s offense starts on the ground. Linderbaum is not a sexy pick, but he is great in pass protection and run blocks well.

Kansas City – Jordan Davis, Georgia DT – Andy Reid is a line of scrimmage guy, and the Chiefs gave up the second most yards per carry last season. There’s a lot of respect for Davis and most media types don’t think Jordan Davis lasts this long in the draft. Davis may never get double digit sacks but his pass rush skills can only go up. Davis is an elite run defender.

Cincinnati – Kenyon Green, Texas A&M OL – Green is extremely versatile and great as a run blocker. He can start at right tackle if Reiff gets injured again in 2022. Mike Brown has shown a preference for big school prospects, I believe he will want Green or Darian Kinnard over Bernhard Raimann or Max Mitchell. Cincinnati may trade down here if another team wants to get in front of Detroit for a quarterback.

Detroit (From Rams) – Travis Jones, Uconn DT – Jones is an excellent run defender with plus pass rush skills. Detroit looks like they are prioritizing line of scrimmage talent early, Jones would be an excellent value here. Jones has earned praise for his overall fitness and looks to be an upgrade over the current group for Detroit at defensive tackle.

Song of the post is “I’m Just A Monster Underneath, My Darling” – Krewella

49ers mock draft 2022

Posted: February 10, 2022 in Football, New entries, NFL, NFL Draft
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First round: None 😦

Second round (61st): Myjai Sanders, Cincinnati DE – Sanders posted 8(!) hurries against the vaunted Alabama offensive line in the cotton bowl. He showed leadership as a vocal supporter of other defensive linemen in the senior bowl and has appropriate size for the position.

Third round (93rd): Alontae Taylor, Tennessee CB – An SEC Veteran, Taylor allowed one touchdown on fifty-two targets this season. Strong performances against Alabama and Pittsburgh this season. Zero recorded penalties for the 2021 season.

Third round (compensatory): Jarrett Patterson, Notre Dame IOL – Patterson is a longtime starter for Notre Dame at center. Lynch has shown a preference for Notre Dame offensive line with the Mike McGlinchey and Aaron Banks picks early in previous drafts. Laken Tomlinson is up on his contract and Alex Mack is in his late 30s.

Fourth round (132nd): Kolby Harvell-Peel, Ok. State S – Harvell-Peel has been a top safety since his freshman year. He can push for the strong safety job if Jaquiski Tartt isn’t resigned and would be a valuable depth safety if he is. Harvell-Peel has been a cornerstone player for one of College Football’s top defenses for three years.

Fifth round (171st): Keytaon Thompson, UVA WR – Thompson has experience taking handoffs (39 carries in 2021) and has a giant 6’4″ frame that should make him easy to target. Pro Football Focus suggests he’s even a good run blocker, making him extremely valuable in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

Sixth round (185th): Chase Garbers, Cal QB – The depth chart behind Trey Lance is pretty skinny. Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard are both gone. Garbers has displayed good athleticism and a reasonably strong arm at Cal. He started four years and gradually improved during his time there.

Song of the post – “Black Summer” by Red Hot Chili Peppers

Broncos get the tank started early, pass on QB. Plus more nonsense from me.

Posted: June 11, 2021 in Football, New entries, NFL
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George Paton and the Denver Broncos have one of the most talented rosters in Football. Broncos QB Drew Lock has been most specifically NOT the dude since being drafted. Whether he’s not a fit for Pat Shurmur’s quick pass offense or he’s just not starter material, Denver remains in the market for a franchise quarterback. Denver traded for journeyman Teddy Bridgewater who may be more of a fit for Denver’s offense, but hasn’t flashed big game potential since his rookie season. Broncos offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur will be familar with Teddy from their time in Minnesota (2016-’17), though Teddy was injured for nearly that entire time Shurmur was with the Vikings.

Denver stayed at pick nine and found Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Alabama’s Mac Jones available, two of the draft’s biggest names at quarterback. They chose to draft Patrick Surtain II, and roll with Lock and Bridgewater. Denver will return stud wide receiver Courtland Sutton who missed 15 games last year, who may elevate the offense even with Lock or Bridgewater.

Did Denver have plans to lure Aaron Rodgers out of Green Bay? Are Paton and Elway out of their ***damned minds? If the plan was to draft a passer in 2022, they should have traded down, aggressively so, to get a first rounder next season. Surtain’s a fine value pick, but Denver will just win 6 games next season if they don’t find a way to elevate the passing offense. Trading for Rodgers or Deshaun Watson would be the M. Night Shyamalan twist ending that would keep Elway on staff for another decade, but there is little occurring right now to suggest such a trade will take place. Elway has been heavily criticized on whiffing on QBs in the past like Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch, so while I can appreciate the hesitation to take anyone but a “sure thing” at QB, Elway may not have tons of time left before Mr. Bowlen relieves him of his duties.

It’s still unclear what caused Fields to drop as far as he did. His throwing motion? A couple of bad interviews? The decision to pass on Fields and Jones is even more curious. Denver didn’t even draft a late/mid round quarterback, implying they are confident about their QB room.

The only ending to the story that makes Paton/Elway look smart is getting Aaron Rodgers.

The Aaron Rodgers story feels like a non story that’s dressed up by the Pat McAfees of the world (God bless you Pat McAfee) to fill the hours between the draft and the regular season. Some months ago, Russell Wilson seemed destined to part ways with Seattle after bashing his offensive line and repeatedly saying how many times he’d been sacked as a Seahawk. But apparently that’s all in the past and Wilson and Pete Carroll have kissed and made up. Rodgers reportedly compared Brian Gutekunst to Jerry Krause of the Bulls MJ era. This seems specific enough to be believable, but most people don’t really love their boss. I’ve said much worse than that about my bosses in my past jobs. I appreciate that Packers GM Brian Gutekunst stuck to his guns instead of caving to Rodger’s supposed demands to draft a wide receiver.

*Aaron Rodgers demands trade if Green Bay doesn’t start taking his advice, draft receivers in first round*

Packers Executive: “What do you think Boss? Elijah Moore is available, and he’d be great on this offense!”

Brian Gutekunst: “We’re drafting Eric Stokes.”

Packers Executive: “But what abo-“

Gutekunst: *Throws beer bottle across the room* “WE’RE DRAFTING STOKES!”

Rodgers has since sat out of minicamp, so him sitting out for the season or going to Denver is slightly more likely now. DeShaun Watson has reportedly also expressed interest in being traded to Denver, but he has to prove he can avoid prison first. If Watson wants to get traded anywhere, it should be the Las Vegas Raiders, where prostitution is legal.

In Conclusion:

Drew Lock will probably “put it all together” and have a career year, because that’s what happened with Buffalo’s Swell Guy Josh Allen, and I thought Allen sucked. Jerry Jeudy didn’t quite play up to the level of some of his peers, dropping more passes than expected, and Lock will be getting his best receiver, Courtland Sutton back in ’21. They also drafted Quinn “The Belly” Meinerz (who had a great senior bowl in practice) to compete for their starting center position, where Lloyd Cushenberry has struggled.

Rodgers will probably return to practice with Green Bay at some point, he probably just wants to stay home and get high because he’s a 37 year old millionaire who feels he’s earned it. He’s not publicly demanded a trade like Watson has.

DeShaun Watson will inevitably settle out of court with all of his plaintiffs, the criminal charges will get dropped, and he will get traded to the Eagles or some QB desperate team and as long as he keeps being a star QB, eventually the fans will forget about the lawsuits. Like we did with Tyreek Hill, Ray Lewis, Richie Incognito, etc.

That’s Football.

Song of the Post is Flow State (Spoken word with Elena Brower) – Above and Beyond

Enjoy a cold, refreshing glass of J-E-T-S Kool Aid (TM)

Posted: June 9, 2021 in Football, New entries, NFL
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  • New Jets head coach Robert Saleh has BEAUTIFUL eyelashes
  • With former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and former 49ers passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur, the Jets are the 49ers East. They can be expected to run the same offense and defense that San Francisco has been running.
  • BYU’s loss to Coastal Carolina showed Zach Wilson’s toughness against an aggressive pass rush. This is an environment New York will be facing often in 2021, with well coached AFC East pass rushers and a bottom half pass protecting unit. Against Coastal Carolina, Wilson had less time to find receivers operated like (in my opinion) like Steve McNair quickly finding open receivers and keeping his team in the game.
  • Saleh’s mastery in getting the most out of an average defense and the same offensive scheme that helped Aaron Rodgers have an MVP season in 2020 sets up New York with plenty of optimism for the future. Mobile QBs have given Saleh’s defenses fits in the past. Newcomer Jarrad Davis should be great as a spy in key matchups against Buffalo’s Josh Allen or New England’s Cam Newton. The Jets already have a great run defense with Quinnen Williams and Folorunso Fatukasi, Saleh’s challenge will be finding high level starters in the secondary.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo was serviceable, sometimes GREAT (when healthy) in this scheme. BYU passer Zach Wilson is expected to have stronger overall fundamentals and great Manziel-esque playmaking ability that Jimmy hasn’t displayed at a high level recently. The ceiling for the Jets offense is already much higher with the marriage of Zach Wilson’s “toolbox” and the run heavy, play action centric nature of LaFleur’s playcalling.
  • The Jets’ offensive line is less complete than the 49ers, with starters with Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera Tucker and question marks every where else. As of 6/8/2021, the Jets had met with Morgan Moses, but no agreement between the two parties had been reached. Moses has been a top run blocker in Washington and a solid pass protector, a huge get for NY if they signed him. While Douglas has taken steps to improve this group, the line looks like it’s a season or two away from being an above average group. Wilson was at his best at BYU with great pass protection, and his development will likely hinge on his line’s ability to protect him.
  • Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, and now Elijah Moore give the Jets an actually very promising, young receiving group (Jamison Crowder is currently holding out).
  • UDFA tight end Kenny Yeboah (teammates with early pick Elijah Moore) blew up on Alabama’s defense for 181 yards and two scores. Yeboah has experience blocking but needs to grow in this area to make the roster where running will be so crucial.
  • The Jets corners specifically are pretty bad. They might get gashed this season if the cornerback talent overall does not improve. They spent five late (5th and 6th) round picks on safeties and cornerbacks. This is a team that should sign Richard Sherman.
  • The Jets front seven (or six in nickel) looks competitive after signing Carl Lawson and returning Quinnen Williams. This would be C.J. Mosley’s first fully healthy season since 2018 if he stays healthy this year.

The Jets don’t look like a 12-5 team right now, but the pieces are being assembled for future seasons. Wilson doesn’t need to be perfect right away for this team to take a big leap from 2-14, he just needs to protect the ball and stay healthy. The Jets can win eight or nine game in 2021. Their schedule in 2020 was tough as nails, and they have Houston, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati this season. Miami, who 2-0’d New York last season (and stomped on San Francisco 43-17) did so with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chan Gailey at OC. Both of whom are no longer with the team. I feel with the Jets already strong run defense and play calling switching from A C T U A L Gregg Williams to Robert Saleh, New York will be able to handle Tua’s Dolphins and many other mid-level teams as Coach Saleh and young Zach Wilson progress in their respective roles.

Song of the post – “She’s the one” – Arkasia

I really wanted to write more, my posts are always really short. I don’t have more words without covering whole, other topics or just adding fluff. I have too much fluff as it is. Don’t skip on the song, Arkasia’s a good one.

Less discussed NFL offseason changes

Posted: May 30, 2021 in Football, New entries, NFL
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It’s been a wild 12 months in NFL Land. Many stories have flown under the radar because of all of Covid, Deshaun Watson, Tompa Bay, etc. I want to touch on some of the more recent developments that I believe will become real storylines once the 2021 season starts.

Philadelphia Eagles signed Wake Forest passer Jamie Newman as an undrafted free agent. Newman was an early draft favorite entering the 2020 college football season before curiously opting out of the 2020 season after transferring to Georgia. The Eagles will want to see what they have in Jalen Hurts in ’21 season, but would be foolish not to give Newman some snaps in the preseason to see what he looks in some kind of competitive environment. Newman earned praise for his huge arm and mobility at Wake Forest.

Vikings draft Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond in 3rd round, may supplant veteran starter Kirk Cousins if Cousins experiences another rough stretch. The Vikings owe Kirk a substantial amount of money so cutting or trading him seems out of the question for two more season, but that’s what I thought about Carson Wentz and Philadelphia. The Vikings attempted to trade up, possibly for Justin Fields.

Carolina Panthers signed Northwestern standout linebacker Paddy Fisher. Fisher’s best performances came in his earlier years (2017, 2018). Fisher has ideal size (6’4″, 240) and was a 4 year starter at Northwestern. The undrafted free agent joins a young, aggressive panthers defense.

Balitimore signed undrafted free agent Kenji Bahar, 5 year quarterback out of FCS Monmouth University. Briefly watching some of his plays, Bahar has a big arm and can send the ball far with seemingly little effort. Bahar was clearly underrecruited at Monmouth. Ravens do a great job of sniffing out underrated talent every year. It’s not likely Bahar will see the field barring a Lamar Jackson injury, he may be worth a watch if he gets on the field in preseason. Bahar didn’t have the most complex defenses in the FCS, but showed solid fundamentals and a strong arm and if he can develop anywhere, would develop in Baltimore. Bahar has athleticism, but did most of his damage through the air.

Lovie Smith has returned to the NFL, as the defensive coordinator for the Texans. Lovie went 81-63 as the Bears head coach, including a super bowl berth with literal Human Garbage Rex Grossman. The Bears haven’t had a good coach since. Unless you want to include Matt “8-8” Nagy. If nothing else, Smith will maximize the remaining talent on the stripped Texans defense.

Unless something changes, New Orleans is plowing ahead with Jameis Winston as their presumptive starter for 2021. I believed Jameis would stop in town for New Orleans on his way to a new destination like Chicago or Jacksonville. The Saints were comfortable drafting other positions early in the draft and moving forward with Jameis and Hill. With Brees’ retirement, Winston is the next man up. New Orleans drafted Notre Dame Senior Ian Book in the fourth round, who will have an opportunity to show off his moves to Sean Payton and the Saints brass. Book had a solid if unspectacular career in South Bend, maybe New Orleans’ Jarrett Stidham. This will be the first time since 2005 that the Saints will open the regular season without Drew Brees as their starting QB.

The Eagles offensive line, once among the most dominant in the league has been an injured mess for the past two seasons. Philadelphia has had multiple holes in their roster, choosing to draft DeVonta Smith over RaShawn Slater in round one. Overall they drafted one interior offensive lineman (Landon Dickerson, Alabama C) and signed two UDFAs, Harry Crider (Indiana C), and Kayode Awosika (Buffalo OT) to compete for a role if they are injury plagued yet again. New head coach Nick Sirianni had an elite group of blockers as the offensive coordinator at Indianapolis and will likely need the same in Philadelphia to execute any kind of game plan.

Notable free agents include: OT Morgan Moses, CB Richard Sherman, FS Earl Thomas, DE/OLB Melvin Ingram, OT Mitchell Schwartz, C Austin Reiter, OLB Justin Houston.

Adam Gase is somehow not an NFL head coach, nor an Alabama offensive coordinator
STOLEN IMAGE ALERT: Liberty QB Malik Willis has caught the eye of some high level talent evaluators, including Jordan Reid who described Willis as having “arm arrogance.” Under Willis, Liberty went 10-1, their only loss a 14-15 game against NC State.
Aaron Donald looks like he is part of an advanced humanoid species that will kill and eat the current batch of genetically fat, lazy and generally inferior human beings.
Iowa State’s Matt Campbell reportedly turned down a gigantasaurus contract to be the Detroit Lions head coach.
Gardner Minshew has a nice headband, but no one cares. 😦

It will be okay.

Song of the post is Adventure Club remix of MS MR’s “Hurricane”

NFL storylines and I hate on Trey Lance

Posted: May 12, 2021 in Football, New entries, NFL
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Post Draft Storylines

AFC Heavyweight Pittsburgh Steelers after being knocked out of the playoffs by AFC North little brother Cleveland Browns, did not draft or sign a quarterback to compete with Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger struggled at the end of the 2020 regular season and in their loss to Cleveland in the playoffs. The Steelers have the toughest PROJECTED strength of schedule for 2021. This may be the first in a chain of events leading to a rearranging of the AFC North dominance hierarchy. Pittsburgh has been near or at the top of that division for decades.

Kansas City, who lost in the SuperBowl primarily because of injured offensive line issues, traded for Ravens offensive tackle Orlando Brown, signed All Pro guard Joe Thuney from New England, and drafted Oklahoma center Creed Humphrey. Kansas City will also be returning Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, a 2020 opt-out who may have played a pivotal role in the 2020 SuperBowl. I have Kansas City as my top overall team right now.

The Miami Dolphins will have one first round selection in 2022 (from the 49ers) and have thrown all of their chips into the Tua Tagovailoa basket. Tua looked promising, but was benched multiple times for veteran passer Ryan Fitzpatrick late in games. Seeing Justin Herbert have tremendous success, the pressure is on for Grier and Flores to make the Tua pick look like a smart move. Fitzpatrick is now the presumptive starter in Washington. Miami’s depth chart at wide receiver now includes first round Alabama standout Jaylen Waddle and former Texans speedster Will Fuller. Former offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is no longer with the organization, as Brian Flores has two co-offensive coordinators in George Godsey and Eric Studesville. While other clubs have a run game coordinator and a pass game coordinator in addition to an offensive coordinator, Miami is the only NFL team with two co-offensive coordinators.

The stars are beginning to align for Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys. With a healthy offensive line and Dak Prescott, Dallas looks to be substantially more competitive than they were in 2020. The Cowboys spent several draft picks on defensive players, including Penn State ‘backer Micah Parsons. This change along with bringing in Dan Quinn, a more veteran/proven defensive play-caller set Dallas up for a like 11+ win season in 2021. It’s worth mentioning Dallas has the easiest projected strength of schedule (just ahead of Philadelphia) which should help Dallas in the wins department.

Dallas drafted three cornerbacks, two of whom are 6’4″. It’s not clear whether Dan Quinn had input in these selections, Quinn having spent time in Seattle with tall corners Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner in their prime. Nahshon Wright of Oregon State and Israel Mukuamu of South Carolina were mid/late round selections who clearly stood out to Jerry for their size, should challenge for a starting role on a struggling defense.

The Houston Texans will have a first round pick in 2021, they have not had a first round selection in three of the past four seasons. A new head coach and a journeyman vet like Tyrod Taylor would provide Nick Caserio, David Culley and Houston with the perfect cover to soft tank for an elite QB in the ’22 draft. Right now Spencer Rattler and Sam Howell look like the two top prospects at the position, but Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray have taught us that a lot can change in only one season.

Houston may have found a gem in defensive coordinator hire Lovie Smith. It is my opinion that Lovie Smith was done wrong by the Chicago Bears after being fired in a season they went 10-6, and then being displaced for Dirk Koetter, who never accomplished much with his opportunity. Smith should really turn that defense around, albeit they are short on talent to do so. Texans OC Tim Kelly survived regime changes, so one would expect the Texans’ style of offense to remain the same overall. Culley spent time in Baltimore and may want Houston to run the football more as a result.

OPINION: Trey Lance is NOT pro ready, but has exciting potential

I’ve changed my tune on Trey Lance. After watching his dropbacks against 4 teams (Montana State, Illinois State, James Madison and Central Arkansas) I am less confident in Trey Lance’s future in the NFL. Trey Lance threw ten passes in North Dakota State’s championship game against James Madison, winning 28-20. The 49ers will not provide him the luxury of throwing ten passes and barreling down the middle for 5 yard gains against 1-AA talent in the NFC West. He has a high completion percentage, but many of his passes are quick, high percentage passes that would be very difficult for an NFL backup to not complete. He also had the benefit of having a 6’4″ wide receiver in Christian Watson who often found himself wide open from the games I watched.

Lance does have some likeable qualities. He has a cannon arm and will sometimes complete a beautiful deep ball on the run. Lance occasionally made what I would consider a “tight window” throw. It is clear Lance is being drafted based on his potential and not on his current passing prowess. Unless the 49ers plan on switching to some kind of Mike McCoy/Tim Tebow offense like the Broncos ran in 2011, their best bet is to hope Jimmy can stay healthy and to keep him on the roster unless Lance proves he is ready. Lance is an exciting player to watch, it is my opinion that Mac Jones was more accurate in actual downfield, air yards throws, played against NFL caliber defensive players and even threw more often than Tua did with Alabama in previous seasons.

I understand Lance’s supporters will point to his pre snap calling of protections and calling audibles as evidence for his pro readiness. I fully believe Trey Lance is a smart person, lots of smart people have failed at the professional level. Ryan Fitzpatrick graduated from Harvard and didn’t become relevant in the NFL scene until 12 years into his career. Kellen Moore was a super smart quarterback who couldn’t PLAY quarterback, Dallas found more use out of him as a coach, where he is now one of the league’s top offensive coordinators. Young quarterbacks fail not because they are not smart, they fail because their work ethic, discipline, and determination do not matchup with the extremely high bar set from the likes of Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson.

As a 49ers fan I hope Lance becomes the player John Lynch and company envision him being, I feel we’re a long way from that day.

The Final Mock (4/28/2021)

Posted: April 28, 2021 in Football, New entries, NFL, NFL Draft
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Jacksonville – Trevor Lawrence

New York Jets – Justin Fields – I am the only on on the planet who believes the Jets will draft Justin Fields. Zach Wilson has already called three former Jets QBs suggesting Joe Douglas will draft him at 2 overall. I can’t make sense in my head that the Jets will want an injury prone, small school QB behind that offensive line. Justin Fields is a leader. He’s a big play QB. I acknowledge the likelihood of this selection is very low, but I can’t base my mock draft selections strictly off of reports. Certainly the Jets would have no reason to smokescreen their pick, but they have no reason to tell everyone either. This is the only pick that makes any sense at all to me.

San Francisco – Zach Wilson, BYU QB – Wilson is an efficient passer, and the 49ers have the blocking scheme to protect and let him do his work. Supposedly John Lynch and Co. like Trey Lance here. I personally feel all of these top five QBs can be great if given enough time in one system to become good.

Atlanta – Trey Lance, NDSU QB – Arthur Smith, new Falcons coach, made his name most recently by turning Ryan Tannehill from a bust into a high level starting QB. Trey Lance is a high tools, smart guy who just needs experience. The Falcons would drool over what he can do. They can sit him as long as they want, Ryan’s under contract for three more seasons. I believe Terry Fontenot would jump at the opportunity to draft Lance with everything he’s shown he can do, even with his limited passing experience.

Cincinnati – Penei Sewell, Oregon OT – Burrow already lost some rookie season games to injury, and he was actually connecting well with the receivers they have on the roster. I’m sure he’ll want Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Brown is an old school guy who may believe the games are won and lost on the line of scrimmage and I believe he will see this draft as an opportunity to get some slam dunk offensive tackles and still get quality receivers later in the draft.

Miami – Kyle Pitts, UF TE – Chris Grier does a great job of not overthinking his selections and drafting for value. This has served them well so far. Pitts has been lauded as the gem of the draft.

Detroit – Ja’Marr Chase, LSU WR – The Lions have a need at wide receiver with Kenny Golladay gone, Chase is the best wide receiver in the draft.

Carolina – Jaylen Waddle, Alabama WR – I could see Rashawn slater being the pick here. Facing Tampa Bay twice a year makes me think OC Joe Brady will want firepower to keep up. Waddle helped Tua Tagovailoa and likely Mac Jones become first round picks.

Denver – Mac Jones, Alabama QB – I feel Mac gets unfairly criticized for his team and looks. He throws the ball well. He’ll have a great setup in Denver, the Broncos could be a legit playoff team if they have an above average quarterback next year.

Dallas – Patrick Surtain II, Alabama CB – Teammates with current Cowboy Trevon Diggs, Surtain is seen by many as the top corner in the draft as Farley’s had some injury(back) issues and now even has COVID. Should fit Dan Quinn’s defense well with physical play at Alabama.

New York Giants – Devonta Smith, Alabama WR – Smith is the first Heisman trophy winner to not play QB since seemingly forever. Signing Kenny Golladay suggests Gettleman is now willing to invest in receivers, and Smith would give Daniel Jones every chance to take the next step, 166 lbs be damned.

Philadelphia – RaShawn Slater, Northwestern OT – Former first rounder Andre Dillard has not been healthy and keeping Jalen Hurts upright will be important if they want to see what they have in him. They could also go corner here, with Jaycee Horn or Asante Samuel Jr. The Eagles have invested in LOS positions in the past highly.

LA Chargers – Christian Darrisaw, VA. TECH OT – Darrisaw is a balanced, physical blocker who should run block and has done well in pass protection as well. The Chargers have a gaping need at offensive line generally and Darrisaw played well in 2020.

Minnesota – Jaycee Horn, SC CB – Horn’s one of the top man corners in the draft, Mike Zimmer openly complained about lack of defensive talent on the roster after getting plowed by Alvin Kamara for 6 rushing touchdowns against the Saints who they normally bully. Horn took Seth Williams completely out of the game against Auburn, he should do well in Minnesota.

New England – Greg Newsome II, Northwestern CB – Newsome helped Justin Fields look bad in the 2020 OSU/Northwestern game. Newsome still cracks six feet, and Belichick tends to like his defensive backs tall. I could maybe see Trevon Moehrig or Jamar Johnson here.

Arizona – Alijah Vera Tucker, USC OL – Vera Tucker comes from an offensive scheme very similar to what Kingsbury is running in Arizona. While he started at left tackle in 2020, many expect Tucker to start at guard. Arizona’s weakness is Kyler Murray’s health. I expect offensive line to be a priority for Arizona, and Vera Tucker could reasonably start at guard or tackle on this line.

Las Vegas – Teven Jenkins, OKST. OL – Jenkins is a great run blocker which will be important to the Raiders. I could see the Raiders liking Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah or one other wide receivers. Gruden and Mayock have had great OL play and I see them making that a priority, Jenkins would be a good value here.

Miami – Micah Parsons, Penn State LB – Parsons is a do it all super athlete linebacker, if teams are comfortable with his off field issues. Flores and Grier would draft him if he is still here, Parsons would immediately be one of the best players on the field.

Washington – Trevon Moehrig, TCU S – Washington’s identity is on defense, and Moehrig is a plus size defensive back who many regard as the top safety in the draft. Washington’s struggled at safety.

Chicago – Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame OL – Notre Dame has been an offensive line factory, and Eichenberg played well in 2020.

Indianapolis – Samuel Cosmi, Texas OT – The Colts are solid all around, they need an offensive tackle to replace Anthony Castonzo. Cosmi has great size and has shown the pass protection and run blocking skills to be up to the task for Indianapolis. The Colts have been elite at offensive line, I would be shocked if this wasn’t a priority for them.

Tennessee – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame LB – JOK had an all pro performance against Clemson in 2020. He lacks ideal size, but he flies around the ball like Troy Polamalu. JOK may be asked to move to safety because of his small size.

New York Jets – Jalen Mayfield, Michigan OT – Mayfield has experience at right tackle and should play well there in the NFL. The Jets know they need to be good on the offensive line, they have holes everywhere except for left tackle.

Pittsburgh – Najee Harris, Alabama RB – Harris is a prototype, all round great runner, pass protector, receiving back. Daniel Jeremiah compared him to Matt Forte. The Steelers need a QB and a left tackle, but they may not see the value in those picks here.

Jacksonville – Jaelan Phillips, Miami DE – Phillips is the top edge rusher and played great in 2020. He has NFL size and pressured the passer more often than stud Gregory Rousseau.

Cleveland – Rondale Moore, Purdue WR – Moore can be versatile and can work with the offense that works best for Baker Mayfield. Moore is crazy fast and even stronger. Think of Moore like a roided up Deebo Samuel.

Baltimore – Rashod Bateman, Minnesota WR – Baltimore needs help at wide receiver. Even if Marquise Brown isn’t the answer for them, they don’t have a lot of help even outside of Brown. Bateman is a burner.

New Orleans – Asante Samuel Jr, FSU CB – Samuel is an elite zone corner in the draft. Even at CB3, Samuel would be a big time defender for New Orleans especially against Tampa Bay. at 5’10”, Samuel isn’t even that small.

Green Bay – Eric Stokes, UGA CB – Stokes has great size and played well at Georgia.

Buffalo – Wyatt Davis, Ohio State OG – If Buffalo wants to run the ball better, they should improve their o-line play. Davis has been a major part of OSU’s dominant rushing offense.

Baltimore – Zaven Collins, Tulsa LB – Collins is a versatile linebacker who can rush the passer or play inside. Collins has a gigantic frame and can move around the defense depending on what Baltimore needs.

Tampa Bay – Elijah Molden, Washington DB – Molden is a smaller corner but he has elite coverage skills. Tampa’s done a great job collecting depth in the secondary, and that depth has helped them to be successful against teams like the Chiefs and the Falcons. Molden is likely a CB3 because of his size, but has top coverage chops and will be more valuable late in the season as injuries begin to pile up.

Comparing number of passes attempted for ’21 Draft prospects, current/previous quarterbacks. Also wishful thinking mock draft

Posted: April 11, 2021 in Football, New entries, NFL, NFL Draft
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I was expecting that quarterbacks with more college pass attempts would be better overall QBs, but that doesn’t seem to be the case at least looking at these numbers here. The good/bad QBs are all over the map. Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo are at the higher end of the list but Carson Wentz and Tom Brady are at the lower end of the list. The data’s certainly not complete, I didn’t include many backup or third strings QBs.I was expecting that quarterbacks with more college pass attempts would be better overall QBs, but that doesn’t seem to be the case at least looking at these numbers here. The good/bad QBs are all over the map. Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo are at the higher end of the list but Carson Wentz and Tom Brady are at the lower end of the list. The data’s certainly not complete, I didn’t include many backup or third string QBs.

It does concern me a little bit that Trey Lance has the lowest passes of everyone on the list. I feel the NFL needs to take this as a caution that he needs to go the Buccaneers or Falcons. Where he can sit for two seasons and get a real NFL education. Patrick Mahomes threw almost five times as many passes as Lance did in College and he sat for a year (Minus one late season start). Rodgers threw twice as many passes as Lance and sat for three years. Both of these men are very smart, hard working people, and had a ton more experience than Lance did. Throwing him onto ‘Bad Team X’ like New York or Detroit is setting even the smart, most resilient quarterback up for failure.It does concern me a little bit that Trey Lance has the lowest passes of everyone on the list. I feel the NFL needs to take this as a caution that he needs to go the Buccaneers or Falcons. Where he can sit for two seasons and get a real NFL education. Patrick Mahomes threw almost five times as many passes as Lance did in College and he sat for a year (Minus one late season start). Rodgers threw twice as many passes as Lance and sat for three years. Both of these men are very smart, hard working people, and had a ton more experience than Lance did. Throwing him onto ‘Bad Team X’ like New York or Detroit is setting even the smart, most resilient quarterback up for failure.

I find it interesting that although I would label Alex Smith’s a career a success mostly on number of starts, a quarterback with his performance early on would not likely be given a chance for as long as he was. Dwayne Haskins was cut less than two seasons into his NFL career. Josh Rosen was traded after only one season. NFL franchises are more like day traders and less like ‘buy and hold’ investors in that way it feels to me, at least with quarterbacks. This may explain the aggressive nature in which players fight for fully guaranteed money and other benefits in their contract.

Washington Football Team Tight End Logan Thomas ranks in the top half on this list for passes thrown in college, suggesting Washington should probably move him to Quarterback as it is unlikely he’s very bad compared to other NFL backups with that experience. Eagles tight end Tyree Jackson seems to be a similar story. His completion percentage at Buffalo was less than ideal, but I felt he showed enough that he warrants at minimum a practice squad spot or a 3rd string spot on a proper NFL team assuming he gets reasonable coaching and receiver talent. Being tall and fast may have given them a roster spot when shorter quarterbacks may have been free agents looking for work, of course it could have also pigeonholed them from being granted a long enough leash to fulfill their potential, a leash often longer for early draft picks or free agent trades like Sam Darnold or Jimmy Garoppolo. I have no answers their, only questions.

College Career pass attempts for notable NFL QBs:

Kyler Murray – 519

Mitchell Trubisky – 572

Alex Smith – 587

Dwayne Haskins – 590

Carson Wentz – 612

Cam Newton – 628* (336 from JUCO)

Tom Brady – 638

Ryan Fitzpatrick – 641

Josh Allen – 649

Aaron Rodgers – 665

Tua Tagovailoa – 684

Julian Edelman – 706

Ryan Tannehill – 774

Jacoby Brissett – 839

Sam Darnold – 846

Jameis Winston – 851

Tyrod Taylor – 865

Blake Bortles – 891

Joe Flacco – 942

Joe Burrow – 945

Tyree Jackson – 955

Matthew Stafford – 987

Jalen Hurts – 1047

Lamar Jackson – 1086

Kirk Cousins – 1128

Teddy Bridgewater – 1142

Gardner Minshew – 1168

Dak Prescott – 1169

Robert Griffin III – 1192

DeShaun Watson – 1207

Logan Thomas – 1248

Daniel Jones – 1275

Justin Herbert – 1293

Ben Roethlisberger – 1304

Andy Dalton – 1317

Matt Ryan – 1347

Patrick Mahomes – 1349

Russell Wilson – 1489

Baker Mayfield – 1497

Drew Lock – 1553

Jared Goff – 1568

Derek Carr – 1630

Jimmy Garoppolo – 1668

Case Keenum – 2229

Former QBs

Jamarcus Russell – 797

Andrew Luck – 1064

Philip Rivers – 1087

Eli Manning – 1363

Peyton Manning – 1381

Drew Brees – 1678

WISHFUL THINKING MOCK

Jacksonville – Trevor Lawrence

NY Jets – Justin Fields. Fields was QB2 for a year plus until the hype machine started backing Zach Wilson’s performances against North Alabama and other like powerhouses. Zach struggled with injury and doesn’t react well to pressure. Fields is at least a gamer and his worst performance came against a sneaky NFL talent ridden Northwestern defense. His bonkers performance against Clemson is the best single game performance from a College QB since the Cam Newton Era. Wilson would be speared and eaten alive by a barely functioning organization like the Jets, Fields brings the leadership, competitiveness and his “Hero Ball” play would be a STRENGTH not a weakness in this east coast hellhole.

San Francisco – Zach Wilson – Forget all of those negative things I just typed about Wilson, that was smokescreen nonsense. In all seriousness Wilson CAN be great, but he clearly requires more support than the Jets could give him. The 49ers can give him an easier job to do. He had top notch pass protection at BYU in 2020, and he’ll have that in San Francisco. He would be out with injury by week four in New York.

Atlanta (For Now) – Rashawn Slater, Northwestern – The pick here is ‘supposed’ to be Kyle Pitts. Fontenot is used to New Orleans, an overall class organization. New Orleans has had a strong group up front for several years. Slater’s a technician, he’s CRAZY strong, and he could play any position up front. He’s the best pass protector in the draft, and the Falcons are still a pass first offense.

Cincinnati – Penei Sewell, Oregon – Pitts would make sense here, as would Jamarr Chase. Mike Brown is an old school decision maker, and Cincinnati in its’ heyday was strong on the line of scrimmage. This is the OL draft, and I expect NFL teams to get them while they’re hot. Also the Bengals are unsteady overall on the OL. Sewell would maybe be asked to start at Guard, where he would be maybe the best guard in Football immediately.

Miami – Kyle Pitts, Florida – This would be a wet dream for Miami. They would be happy with Jamarr Chase or Devonta Smith.

Detroit – Ja’Marr Chase, LSU – The Lions just need to draft for value. They might swing on a quarterback, I would expect Brad Holmes to see what Goff looks like in Detroit and just building a team before immediately drafting a QB.

Carolina – DeVonta Smith, Alabama WR – I’m not so sold on Darnold that the Panthers WOULDN’T draft a QB here. I think Lance needs a mentor (not Darnold) and Mac Jones is strongly a personal preference draft pick. Stacking up at wide receiver would be a strong ‘pro-analytics’ move that the Panthers are supposedly more bought in on with a new owner.

Denver – Mac Jones, Alabama QB – The rumors are that the NFL scouting community is higher on Mac Jones than the media types are. I understand that Mac is white, but he’s not a tall, cannon-armed QB like Brock Osweiler or Paxton Lynch. In order to NOT sabotage Trey Lance’s career, Denver would need to sign a veteran/mentor QB like Alex Smith or Teddy Bridgewater AND need the patience to sit Lance for bare minimum one season. The Broncos roster is honestly respectable outside of QB.

Dallas – Caleb Farley, LSU CB – Dallas’ defense clearly needs any help they can get. Top secondary play is key when you’re passing as much as Dallas will be.

NY Giants – Alijah Vera Tucker, USC OL – Tucker would likely be asked to move inside. I think Jaylen Waddle or Patrick Surtain II would make a lot of sense here. Tucker is a versatile lineman who Gettleman would like.

Philadelphia – Jaylen Waddle, Alabama WR – The Eagles are telling themselves they just need a couple of wide receivers to be competitive, and it is a need for them. Waddle might be WR1 in next years’ draft.

LA Chargers – Patrick Surtain II, Alabama CB – The Chargers have long maintained a presence in the secondary. I would expect the best remaining offensive tackle here or the top corner available. Surtain is big game tested and Staley was used to Jalen Ramsey being available with the Rams.

Minnesota – Jaycee Horn, South Carolina CB – Mike Zimmer wants a strong defense, Horn might be the best technician at corner.

New England – Trey Lance, Trey doesn’t fall past here, if he falls to here. Lance’s footwork and throwing mechanics are clean and an old school guy like Bill Belichick will appreciate that. Bill can start Cam as long as he wants until he feels Trey is ready.

Arizona – Rondale Moore, Purdue WR – Moore can lineup in a variety of roles. He lacks ideal height but he was usually the best player on the field while at Purdue and is as strong as an ox.

Las Vegas – Christian Darrisaw, Va Tech OL – Gruden clearly wants to make a statement up front. Darrisaw has some smaller technical flaws, but that’s what coaches get paid to do.

Miami – Micah Parsons, Penn State LB – Parsons can do whatever Flores would ask him to do at a high level.

Washington – Teven Jenkins, OK STATE OL – Jenkins plays with incredible strength and toughness and plays well especially as a run blocker. Ron Rivera has shown a preference for a power run game in the past.

Chicago – Eric Stokes, UGA CB – The Bears need corner help. Stokes allowed 53% completion percentage over his career in the SEC.

Indianapolis – Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame OT – Another Notre Dame bruiser, The Colts need a new left tackle. The Colts has success with Notre Dame lineman Quenton Nelson.

Tennessee – Kwity Paye, Michigan DL – Paye can play at three technique or as an End. The Titans defense was laughably bad in 2020. Paye is the latest Michigan front seven stud.

NY Jets – Asante Samuel Jr, FSU CB – Samuel’s been nothing short of a shutdown corner at Florida State. The Jets badly need O-line help, but that will not likely be a great value pick here.

Pittsburgh – Kellen Mond, Texas A&M QB – This is Ben’s last season, and Pittsburgh may not even want him for 2021. Mond is a rockstar, showed out at the Senior Bowl, Chris Simms who’s been right when others have been wrong really likes Kellen Mond. Mond has started a grip of games in the SEC and keeps the turnovers low. All a great fit for what the Rooneys like in a QB.

Jacksonville – Greg Newsome II, Northwestern CB – Newsome doesn’t have all the ideal measurables of a typical round one corner, but he played a big role in shutting down Ohio State’s passing game. Something Urban surely took note of.

Cleveland – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame linebacker – The Browns don’t have a gaping hole at crucial starting positions like most other teams. JOK is a defensive playmaker and the Browns will find a way to put him on the field.

Baltimore – Terrace Marshall, LSU WR – The Ravens don’t typically draft receivers in the first round. If they want to win playoff games, they’ll need ace in the hole pass game weapons.

New Orleans – Trevon Moehrig, TCU S – The Saints have done a great job here in recent seasons. One of the rare good safety prospects in the draft, they will likely look for receivers in the middle rounds.

Green Bay – Rashod Bateman, Minnesota WR- Green Bay can’t just not draft receivers. Bateman has average height, but that’s not slowed him down in the BIG 10.

Buffalo – Gregory Rousseau, Miami DE – Buffalo wants a better pass rush with their crazy high scoring offense now. Rousseau will come into a great room to learn and grow in.

Kansas City – Brady Christensen, BYU OT – Brady looked really good in 2020, and Reid has had a soft spot for BYU players in the past. Even against the big dogs like USC and UTAH in 2019 Christensen held his own.

Tampa Bay – Milton Williams, LA TECH DT – While not as BIG as Suh, Williams moves incredibly well and could eventually reload at DT when Tampa is ready.

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