Gridiron Seasonal

On March 3rd, Philadelphia and Buffalo agreed on a trade for LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso. McCoy, arguably the better player remains glued to a contract worth over 25 million over the next three years. Alonso still on his rookie contract is good for less than a tenth of that in the next two seasons.

McCoy’s a great running back. He really is. But going out and spending 7-9 million a year on a running back is like buying a ten dollar bottle of water. Sure it’s nice water. But you could buy water that hydrates just as well for pennies on the dollar elsewhere. Buffalo just sold the farm to buy a 26 year old running back. Now they’re committed to getting tackles and guards that can run block for him. When instead they should focus on solving the quarterback problem and mining the most gold out of the NFL draft.

Philadelphia on the other hand just freed up a ton of cap space. They can now cut DeMeco Ryans (a good but now unnecessary) linebacker and can pick up a talented running back on the cheap in free agency or in the draft. Or both. Their offense doesn’t need a power runner like McCoy to operate. It needs a fleet-footed passer and talented pass-catchers. The Eagles machine should still roll smoothly with tons of money to spend on free agency.

The Eagles won the battle but the outcome of the war of the offseason is to be determined. It’s hard to say what Chip Kelly’s game plan is. In two seasons he’s willingly thrown to the wind the Eagles’ two most exciting players. DeSean Jackson’s attention grabbing play hasn’t been replaced by Riley Cooper or Jeremy Maclin. And now the team cannot lean on a top-shelf runner when their QB struggles, which Foles and Sanchez both did last season. Whatever Coach Kelly’s got up his sleeve, he’s going to look awful silly after bleeding two of the team’s most electric players if the Eagles don’t take the NFL by storm this season.

The NFC West could field four teams with winning seasons in 2014. The Super Bowl Seahawks being the most highly touted in the division, San Francisco, Arizona, and St. Louis also played spectacular throughout last season. Seattle reaffirmed their emphasis on defense and running offense through the draft, but may see some underrated aspects of their team suffer.

Seattle’s receiving corps is already much weaker this off-season than it was in February. Sure-handed and equally underappreciated Golden Tate will be missed on an offense that thrives on ball control. The retirement of Sidney Rice leaves the Super Bowl champs thin in the receiving corps. ‘Hawks fans will see a significant dropoff in the receiving talent between Percy Harvin and the rest of the group. Amidst Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and rookie burner Paul Richardson (all promising but unfulfilled talents) someone will have to surface as a reliable pair of hands for Wilson to turn to when Harvin is lost in double coverage. 

On the flipside, the Cardinals passing attack is about to take flight after drafting John Brown, a speedy wide receiver out of Pittsburg State (KS). With The Larry Fitzgerald, an established 1,000 yard wideout in Michael Floyd and the arrival of John Brown, the Cardinals could be easily go three or four wide regularly this season and put defenses like Seattle’s elite secondary to the test. The addition of quick-footed Ted Ginn Jr. and rookie standout TE Troy Niklas will give Carson Palmer the best receiving corps since Chad Johnson, T.J. Whosyourmama, and Chris Henry who combined for 3,055 yards receiving and 25 touchdowns in 2006. 

The fearsome foursome is back for the St. Louis Rams as Robert Quinn and Chris Long lock up the bookends and Michael Brockers, Kendall Langford and rookie wunderkind Aaron Donald will each compete for two interior spots on the defensive line.The Rams aggressive front seven will make their young secondary’s job a little easier with the constant pressure on opposing QB’s. Their offensive line and oft-injured QB will hold St. Louis back from taking the next step in a tight NFC. Still, St. Louis will be a dangerous team to face in the wild card round for an unprepared Atlanta or Dallas who might wander into the playoffs. Watch the Rams to continue to upset stiff competition in 2014. 

All the pieces are in place for San Francisco to win a championship, but Kaepernick needs to prove he will play up to his $61 million dollar-guaranteed contract by pushing through elite NFL defenses. The defense is stacked at linebacker and very solid in the secondary and defensive line. Their offensive line is among the best in the league and their backfield is very deep with a deceptively talented receiving corps now featuring Bills export Stevie Johnson and undersized rookie Bruce Ellington. The only unsure factor remaining is Kaepernick’s big-game play. The NFL has seen him dominate second-rate defenses. But can he show true QB prowess against elite defenses? That’s what $61 million dollar QB’s get paid to do. And that’s what’s missing for the Harbaugh-Kaepnernick experiment to become a success.

NFC West

Fact 1: The entire NFC West ranked in the top ten for toughest schedules in 2013. – http://www.theredzone.org/Features/NFLStrengthofSchedule.aspx

Fact 2: The NFC West is 42-22 this season. The best in the NFL for any division. The AFC West (contributing half of the AFC teams in the playoffs) posted a 37-27 record.

So what? This means not only did the NFC West put up the most wins, they did it against the toughest competition.

Other Stuff

Vincent Jackson and Torrey Smith are the only receivers among the top 40 to catch less than half of the passes thrown to them. – nfl.com

The New England Patriots are the only team in the AFC East with a positive point differential at +106. Miami, Buffalo, and New York finished at -18, -49, and -97 respectively. – nfl.com

Demaryius Thomas lead the top 40 receivers in YAC with 718. – http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/yards-after-the-catch/2013/

Thirteen running backs ended the season with 1,000 rushing yards. This is the lowest total in at least the past 15 seasons, probably the lowest since the season was expanded to 16 games. The metric marks the rapidly shrinking value of the bellcow tailback, as offenses look to score primarily through the air more than ever.

Really important facts (not really)

The leading white-guy rusher (that’s racist!) was the unconquerable Alex Smith with 76 runs for 431 yards and a touchdown.

Jeff Fisher leads the league in facial hair superiority with the best mustache in the NFL.

Tony Romo will still somehow get blamed for Dallas’ loss to Philadelphia even though he didn’t play and finished 12th in the nation with a QBR of 59.5, ahead of the widely praised Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Andy Dalton.

Mike Wallace was the second leading receiver in Miami, behind Brian Hartline, and the leading mistake in the offseason. Wallace’s $60 million four year contract with $30 million guaranteed resulted in a 930 yard, five touchdown season. All things considered, not a terrible performance, but dramatically below what his contract suggests.

Nick Foles outplayed his peers this season as Vick remained on the sidelines after recovering from his injury. He scored a higher total QBR than Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill and the struggling Robert Griffin III. Foles was a second round pick from Arizona that caught flack for lack of mobility, inaccuracy on the deep ball, and attracted the undesirable title of “game manager” by some critics. Now Foles “manages” the second highest scoring offense in the league.

1. Which quarterback led the league in total QBR?

• A) Nick Foles
• B) Russell Wilson
• C) Peyton Manning
• D) Josh McCown

2. Which of these players totalled the most yards from scrimmage?

• A) LeSean McCoy
• B) Jamaal Charles
• C) Knowshon Moreno
• D) Calvin Johnson

3. Which player led the league in sacks?

• A) J.J. Watt
• B) Robert Quinn
• C) Mario Williams
• D) Robert Mathis

4. Which NFL team swept their division?

• A) Indianapolis Colts
• B) Denver Broncos
• C) New England Patriots
• D) Seattle Seahawks

5. Which team finished second in total yards rushing?

• A) New England
• B) Kansas City
• C) Buffalo
• D) Seattle

6. Which team led the league in turnover ratio?

• A) Carolina
• B) Kansas City
• C) Seattle
• D) San Francisco

7. How many ‘new’ (first season with the team as HC) head coaches posted winning records?

• A) Three
• B) Four
• C) One
• D) Two

8. Which University sent the most players to the draft April 2013?

• A) Alabama
• B) Florida State
• C) Miami
• D) Georgia

9. How many Denver Broncos not named Peyton Manning scored double digit touchdowns?

• A) Two
• B) Three
• C) Five
• D) Four

10. Who recorded the most receiving yards this season?

• A) A.J. Green
• B) Calvin Johnson
• C) Josh Gordon
• D) Jimmy Graham

Answers:

1. D
2. A
3. D
4. A
5. C
6. C
7. B
8. B
9. C
10. C

Houston – Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville QB

Houston will draft a quarterback in 2014. Keenum and Schaub have thoroughly demonstrated their incompetence at the position to warrant Houston’s pulling the trigger. Teddy Bridgewater is the consensus number one quarterback eligible for the draft. The only question that remains regards whether or not Bridgewater wants to stay in school one more year, or be the 1st overall pick of the draft.

St. Louis (through Washington) – Sammy Watkins, Clemson WR

St. Louis is one of the most enigmatic clubs in the NFL. The defense is rich with talent. The offense has some promising pieces, but needs a kickstart. Unless Jeff Fisher wants to take Derek Carr or Johnny Manziel, they need a player that will bring a spark to their offense. Like Tavon Austin was supposed to. They have the running back position seemingly locked up with impressive Vanderbilt rookie Zac Stacy. Sammy Watkins will have every opportunity to emerge as a true number one for Bradford to throw to. Austin Pettis, Chris Givens, and Lance Kendricks have been exciting in flashes, but Fisher needs an offense with a true go to guy.

Jacksonville – Derek Carr, Fresno State QB

A franchise cannot be built around Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne. Derek Carr has shown the production of a true franchise QB. Carr threw for 48 touchdowns and led the Bulldogs to a 11-1 record, with their only loss coming late in the season against San Jose State led by David Fales, another Senior high production passer. Carr threw for over 4,800 yards, completed 70% of his passes with 48 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions. At 6’ 3” and 213, Carr has acceptable size at his position. Cecil Shorts, Marcedes Lewis and young Justin Blackmon have been waiting for an arm like Derek Carr’s to open up the offense.  

Oakland – Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M QB

Johnny Manziel’s second time around at Texas A&M is in some ways more impressive than his rookie, Heisman winning season. Manziel brings a fiercely competitive and youthful zeal with him, something the Raiders need badly. Raiders’ QB Matt McGloin has shown promise, but a chance to take a flyer on a talent like Manziel’s can’t be ignored. Oakland has lots of holes to fill, the most glaring one at QB. Manziel is a threat on the ground, but also possesses a strong arm and a penchant for making something out of nothing. Oakland will need a QB with brilliant play in a suddenly competitive AFC West.

Cleveland – Brett Hundley, UCLA QB

Cleveland may elect to skip on a quarterback here and lean on Brian Hoyer while waiting for Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston next season. If they don’t, Brett Hundley has progressed as a passer at UCLA and looks immediately ready to help drive a franchise towards success. Cleveland has young weapons in the passing game including the mind blowing Josh Gordon and USC tight end Jordan Cameron. Cleveland has a need at running back with a swing and a miss at Trent Richardson, but they need to take a quarterback while they can.

Atlanta – Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina DE

The first team that doesn’t need a quarterback or an offensive player will take possibly the most talented player in the draft. Atlanta sorely needs a boost on a defense that is all around terrible. Atlanta, like Cleveland needs a running back as well. But the opportunity to take a weapon like Clowney is too great to pass on. Clowney’s down junior season has been well documented, but barring a disastrous NFL combine, Clowney will not last past the first ten teams. Clowney has monstrous physical talent, drawing comparisons to Julius Peppers in his college years.

Tampa Bay – Anthony Barr, UCLA OLB

Anthony Barr has developed into a consistent and effective pass rusher in his time at UCLA. Tampa may actually have greater need for a wide receiver at this spot, but any receiver outside of Sammy Watkins seems like too much of a reach for Tampa at number six overall. The Buccaneers have found success in a dominating defense, and Barr will help continue that tradition by getting after the quarterback in a division with three of the most talented passers in football.  

Minnesota – Khalil Mack, Buffalo OLB

The well of top tier quarterbacks is beginning to run dry at this point, and Minnesota has learned not to reach for a quarterback simply because they need one. If Tajh Boyd, David Fales, or Aaron Murray are available in the second round, they might be wise to pick one of them up.

Minnesota cannot stop anyone from scoring. With a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, and the offense-happy Marc Trestman-led Bears, getting a pass rusher is no longer a luxury, it is a necessity. Khalil Mack’s most convincing stat line might be Buffalo’s opening game against Ohio State. Mack recorded 2.5 sacks against Ohio State’s elusive Braxton Miller and intercepted him for a 45 yard touchdown. Mack’s emergence at Buffalo shows he’s ready for the pros.

Tennessee – CJ Mosley, Alabama ILB

Yet again, Tennessee faces the quarterback dilemma. Do they keep Jake Locker? Tennessee may wait until round two or try to draw Jay Cutler out of Chicago with promises of ridiculously fast wide receivers. Assuming the Titans want to give Locker one more shot to keep his job with a 16 game performance, C.J. Mosley will help Tennessee defend against the run. The Titans sit at #23 against the run in the NFL. Mosley will bring elite talent from Alabama to help Tennessee stop the run and in the middle of the field. Mosley is a value pick on a defense that needs help against the run.

Buffalo – HaHa Clinton-Dix, Alabama FS

Buffalo actually has a borderline star-studded defense. Unfortunately for them one of their brightest stars, Jairus Byrd, wants out of Buffalo. If Byrd flies the coop (he he) Buffalo will need at least an adequate defensive back to step up in his place. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is the top rated safety out of College. In his 2012 season, Clinton-Dix totalled five interceptions, one forced fumble and nine passes defended. Clinton-Dix should be just as ready as any to step in and play DB in the National Football League.