1. Cincinnati – Joe Burrow, LSU quarterback. The Bengals would probably trade out of here for, say, four first round picks, but they wouldn’t draft any one else here.

2. Washington – Chase Young, Ohio State defensive end. While I won’t rule out Washington drafting Tua Tagovailoa. I think Chase still has the majority vote here. The Redskins don’t entirely know what Haskins looks like as a starting quarterback, and Chase Young is the “sure thing” of the draft.

3. LA Chargers (Trade with Detroit. Detroit gets 6th, 37th, 112th(4th round pick). LA gets 3rd overall.) – Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama quarterback. Tua’s repeatedly shown he’s as healthy as he can be after the combine. The Chargers have signed proven players to rebuild the offensive line and have the offensive skill group (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Austin Ekeler) to compete right now.

4. NY Giants – Isaiah Simmons, Clemson linebacker/safety. – Gettleman knows when to pick the best player available. Tackle will be a tempting choice here, and if Simmons is gone, I think they would take Mekhi Becton or Tristan Wirfs. Simmons can play two or three different positions on the field at a high level.

5. Miami – Justin Herbert, Oregon quarterback. I am not personally sold on Herbert, but some smart people like Daniel Jeremiah and Gil Brandt really like Herbert. Miami OC Chan Gailey is expected to run a spread offense in Miami, one that would take advantage of Herbert’s arm strength if he were drafted. This isn’t Miami’s only move, but I can’t imagine the Fish NOT taking a Quarterback. Herbert is even one of the few quarterbacks to check off all the Bill Parcells QB rules. Parcells is technically Brian Flores’ coaching grandfather (Bill Belichick was Parcells’ defensive coordinator before getting a head coach job at Cleveland).

6. Detroit (Through LA Chargers) – Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State cornerback. Okudah is an ELITE cornerback, drawing comparisons to Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore.  The Lions have a giant, gaping hole at corner after trading away Darius Slay, and corner’s an important position to be strong at regardless. The Lions could also decide they like Isaiah Simmons here.

7. Carolina – Derrick Brown, Auburn defensive tackle. GM Marty Hurney has valued drafting players near the line of scrimmage. They could draft a wide receiver here to help fulfill Rhule’s vision of the offense. The Panthers have long held an identity on defense as being a physical team. Brown could be the player Star Lotulelei was meant to be.

8. Arizona – Jedrick Wills, Alabama offensive tackle. Trading for DeAndre Hopkins allows Arizona to address a badly suffering offensive line group. Wills is a technician who thrived at Alabama. Wills can line up at his natural position of right tackle and let Humphries continue to start at left tackle.

9. Jacksonville – Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina defensive tackle. Kinlaw really performed well at the senior bowl practices. The Jaguars have a history of dominating at the line of scrimmage on defense, and Kinlaw has shown he does that well.

10. Cleveland – Mekhi Becton, Louisville offensive tackle. Cleveland has one of the league’s best young running backs (Nick Chubb) and would benefit more from Becton’s strengths as a devastating run-blocker than most teams. The Browns had the most success with Baker in 2018 when they were happy to run the ball a lot. New head coach Kevin Stefanski comes from a team (the Vikings) that ran the ball the 4th most in the NFL. Becton can pass protect better than anyone they currently have slated to start at left tackle.

11. NY Jets – Tristan Wirfs, Iowa offensive tackle. Wirfs showed up at the combine with a 40 in the 4.8 range and already had a reputation for his crazy impressive strength. Wirfs can play guard or tackle in year one and brings badly needed blocking to a struggling NY Jets offense.

12. Las Vegas – CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma wide receiver. Lamb has helped Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray get drafted number one OVERALL. Lamb is the top receiver in the class.

13. San Francisco –  C.J. Henderson, Florida cornerback. The 49ers offense can elevate players without elite talent. Shanahan will certainly want a stud like Jeudy or Lamb, but getting Henderson allows the 49ers to play better defense, and ultimately run the ball more instead of having to play catch up so much. John Lynch was part of a super bowl winning defense in Tampa Bay and will continue to prioritize defense.

14. Tampa Bay – Andrew Thomas, Georgia offensive tackle. I would go with a wide receiver here, especially if Jeudy is available. Thomas has played at right tackle before, and could start for Joe Haeg if he wins the job.

15. Denver – Jerry Jeudy, Alabama wide receiver. Anyone that plays quarterback for Denver would have two great receivers in Sutton and Jeudy for years to come.

16. Atlanta – Xavier McKinney, Alabama safety. Dimitroff has been comfortable drafting Crimson Tide alumni before. Mckinney can take someone’s job as a starting safety or contribute as an important nickel.

17. Dallas – Matt Hennessy, Temple center. My guess is as good as anybody’s. Is Jerry Jones just going to draft a defensive back because they need one? Jerry has always made a priority of building a beast on the offensive line. The analytics crowd and the old-school crowd both really like Hennessy, the small school standout as both a pass and run blocker.

18. Miami – Austin Jackson, USC offensive tackle. Jackson is the best pass blocking tackle available here, and played against a high level of competition at Southern California. OC Chan Gailey is expected to run the spread on offense, their linemen will need to be able to hold up while Herbert finds his open man.

19. Las Vegas – Grant Delpit, LSU safety. The Raiders play a lot of zone coverage where Delpit would be at his best. While Delpit’s missed tackle issues are well documented, he covers at an elite level. Delpit demonstrated top coverage skills and could help the Raiders take on Travis Kelce, Noah Fant, and Hunter Henry as a taller (6’3″) safety.

20. Jacksonville – Isaiah Wilson, Georgia offensive tackle. Daniel Jeremiah’s confident Wilson will be a first round pick. Wilson is about as big as Mekhi Becton and a powerful blocker. Wilson was a right tackle at Georgia, so either Taylor or Wilson would move to left tackle eventually.

21. Philadelphia – Justin Jefferson, LSU wide receiver.  The Eagles are expected to target wide receivers in this draft. Jefferson caught over 100 passes in his ’19 season. He’s 6 foot 3, and ran a 4.43 40. They may trade up for Lamb if they can find a willing trade partner.

22. Minnesota – Jeff Gladney, TCU cornerback. Gladney covers well and is an all around strong corner. Minnesota’s drafted several busts at corner in the past 5 years. Gladney’s got a very high floor. He’s not as tall at 5’10”, but plays like his height isn’t a problem.

23. New England – Kristian Fulton, LSU cornerback. The Patriots play a lot of press, Fulton would fit well with that system. The Patriots have swung and missed on a number of  recent corners. In 2018, Bill traded UP for corner Duke Dawson in the 2nd round. Duke Dawson is currently a Bronco. They also spent a high pick on corner JoeJuan Williams who only played in 9 games and made 5 total tackles.

24. New Orleans – Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State wide receiver. Aiyuk is a YAC specialist with an ENORMOUS wingspan. His 80 inch wingspan is wider than almost all of the tight ends in this class. Aiyuk fits well with the Saints current offense, and can help the Saints’ next QB adjust to the NFL as well. The Saints need what Aiyuk provides. Their offense stuttered against a Vikings team without elite corner play.

25. Minnesota – A.J. Epenesa, Iowa defensive lineman. Epenesa is a strong, all-around d-line prospect as a pass-rusher, run-stopper, and even forced four fumbles in 2019 at Iowa. His size will help him be particularly adept at playing the run, something Coach Zimmer will value.

26. Miami – Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota safety. Grier and Flores have shown they value a strong secondary. Winfield had dynamite season in 2019 at Minnesota. Both Flores and Grier are defensively minded leaders, and both saw Antoine Winfield Sr. play in the prime of his career.

27. Seattle – Patrick Queen, LSU linebacker. Seattle needs to improve at defending dual threat quarterbacks. They have great linebackers in Wagner and Wright, but they could get even stronger in the middle of the field with Queen and his toolkit.

28. Baltimore – Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma linebacker. Murray was all over the field at Oklahoma. The Ravens added Calais Campbell for a late round pick, but really need help at linebacker. Murray has shown versatility in coverage, run defense and occasionally as a pass rusher.

29. Tennessee – Marlon Davidson, Auburn DL. The Titans play a physical brand of football. Davidson brings a versatile profile and can play at end or tackle. The Titans could look to restock at cornerback here.

30. Green Bay – Michael Pittman Jr., USC wide receiver. Pittman’s stock has soared with his giant frame and excellent drop rate. The Packers don’t often draft wide receivers in the first round. I would be shocked to see them not draft a wide receiver with how skinny they are outside of Adams.

31. Indianapolis (Trade with San Francisco. SF gets 34th, 122nd(4th round pick). IND gets 31st.) – Jordan Love, Utah State quarterback. The Colts have a selection at 34, so they wouldn’t have to give up that much to get here. The 49ers will be motivated to trade down if they don’t HAVE to have someone here at 31, they don’t have another pick until round 5. Drafting Love is the type of bold move we see from the Colts regularly. Frank Reich is one of the more forward-thinking minds in football, he’s one of the leaders that can make Love the best version of himself.

32. Kansas City – Jonah Jackson, Ohio State guard. Jackson is maybe the best guard in this draft. He’s got experience at center and guard, giving him versatility if the Chiefs offensive line suffers from injuries like it did in ’19. Andy Reid teams have often drafted offensive and defensive linemen early, and Jackson played well against top competition at Ohio State.

Song of the blog – “Better Days” by Onerepublic. The “feelings” part of my brain shit its pants watching this video.

I am not a Daniel Jones fan, but he’s outperformed my expectations of him and has been much more high risk/high reward than I thought he’d be.

Strong mechanics – Jones and Love both have very clean footwork, tight throwing motion, have shown they can make anticipation throws. Both Jones and Love go through their progressions when WR1 is covered up.

Small school prospect with small school receivers – Jones and Love both had pretty unspectacular college stats at Duke and Utah State respectively. They play behind a line and with a receiving group that often gets overmatched by their tougher division rivals. Duke played Virginia Tech, Miami, Clemson. Utah State played Boise State, BYU and actual LSU.

Large frame, hands – Jones and Love have more “old-school” QB builds in an era where 6 foot quarterbacks are getting drafted first overall. Jones is 6’5″ with 9 3/4 inch hands. Love is 6’4″ with 10 1/2 inch hands.

High highs, low lows – One area of Jones’ tape that I got wrong was his willingness and ability to throw into tight windows. Jones threw 24 passing touchdowns in only 12 starts on a bad Giants team. That’s very impressive. He threw 12 interceptions in that time, not too bad for a rookie. He also fumbled the football 18 times in 12 starts. That’s highly alarming. Love hasn’t necessarily shown the same fumble problem as Jones, but he makes some impressive tight window throws on passes that look impossible to defend. He also throws some bad interceptions or bad misses. Against Boise State, Love tried to throw a quick pass to his wide receiver and the corner jumps the pass and brings it home for a pick six. Love led the nation in interceptions thrown in 2019 (17).

I feel Mahomes is not a great comp for Love because Mahomes had sloppy looking footwork and overall mechanics, but often produced a very impressive result throwing the ball. Love has consistently smoother footwork and cleaner throwing motion. Mahomes performed better than Love in college, though I would argue he had a better play caller in Kliff Kingsbury (current AZ Cardinals head coach) than Love’s had for most of his college career. Mahomes is also a much smaller quarterback than Love at 6’2″ with 9 1/4 inch hands (Love is 6’4″ with 10 1/2 inch hands). (This may not seem much smaller but in the world of NFL QB prospects it’s a substantial size difference).

My outlook for Jordan Love is very optimistic. I’ve waffled back and forth on him in the past. I feel that the quarterbacks he’s being compared to (Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow) are performing much better, but with much better talent and coaching than Love’s had. There are flaws in Love’s game, and he is no sure thing. He still hits his ceiling in moments in 2019 when he’s down 30+ points, even without Matt Wells running the offense. Burrow and Tua have never been part of a bad team, and the psychological impact of going from (one of) the best team(s) in college football to (one of) the worst team(s) in the NFL can derail a player’s career (see Johnny Manziel). Burrow himself has been vocal about wanting to be on a team that wins, and how he’s never been a part of a losing team. Love has been part of a winning culture in 2018, and a struggling one in 2019 with blowout losses to LSU and Boise State. Through all that process, he still kept his composure and positivity. Also, while I certainly agree that throwing interceptions is a bad thing, I’ll take that over checkdowns that go for 3 yards on 3rd and 15. Love found himself in dire circumstances repeatedly outmatched in 2019, he had to make risky throws to give his team a chance at success. If a quarterback is willing to risk harming his own stat sheet in order to give his team even the slightest chance at success, that’s someone you can work with.

The song of the blog is Halsey’s “Colors” (Stripped)

Cincinnati – Joe Burrow, LSU quarterback. The Bengals would probably trade out of here for, say, four first round picks, but they wouldn’t draft any one else here.

Washington – Chase Young, Ohio State defensive end. While I won’t rule out Washington drafting Tua Tagovailoa. I think Chase still has the majority vote here. The Redskins don’t entirely know what Haskins looks like as a starting quarterback, and Chase Young is the “sure thing” of the draft.

LA Chargers (Trade with Detroit) – Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama quarterback. Tua’s repeatedly shown he’s as healthy as he can be after the combine. The Chargers have signed proven players to rebuild the offensive line and have the offensive skill group (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Austin Ekeler) to compete right now.

NY Giants – Isaiah Simmons, Clemson linebacker/safety. – Gettleman knows when to pick the best player available. Tackle will be a tempting choice here, and if Simmons is gone, I think they would take Mekhi Becton or Tristan Wirfs. Simmons can play two or three different positions on the field at a high level.

Miami – Justin Herbert, Oregon quarterback. I am not personally sold on Herbert, but some smart people like Daniel Jeremiah and Gil Brandt really like Herbert. Miami OC Chan Gailey is expected to run a spread offense in Miami, one that would take advantage of Herbert’s arm strength if he were drafted. This isn’t Miami’s only move, but I can’t imagine the Fish NOT taking a Quarterback. Herbert is even one of the few quarterbacks to check off all the Bill Parcells QB rules. Parcells is technically Brian Flores’ coaching grandfather (Bill Belichick was Parcells’ defensive coordinator before getting a head coach job at Cleveland).

Detroit (Through LA Chargers) – Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State cornerback. Okudah is an ELITE cornerback, drawing comparisons to Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore.  The Lions have a giant, gaping hole at corner after trading away Darius Slay, and corner’s an important position to be strong at regardless. The Lions could also decide they like Isaiah Simmons here.

Carolina – Derrick Brown, Auburn defensive tackle. GM Marty Hurney has valued drafting players near the line of scrimmage. They could draft a wide receiver here to help fulfill Rhule’s vision of the offense. The Panthers have long held an identity on defense as being a physical team. Brown could be the player Star Lotulelei was meant to be.

Arizona – Jedrick Wills, Alabama offensive tackle. Trading for DeAndre Hopkins allows Arizona to address a badly suffering offensive line group. Wills is a technician who thrived at Alabama. Wills can line up at his natural position of right tackle and let Humphries continue to play at left tackle.

Jacksonville – Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina defensive tackle. Kinlaw really performed well at the senior bowl practice. The Jaguars have a history of dominating at the line of scrimmage on defense, and Kinlaw has shown he does that well.

Cleveland – Mekhi Becton, Louisville offensive tackle. Cleveland has one of the league’s best young running backs (Nick Chubb) and would benefit more from Becton’s strengths as a devastating run-blocker than most teams. The Browns had the most success with Baker in 2018 when they were happy to run the ball a lot. New head coach Kevin Stefanski comes from a team (the Vikings) that ran the ball the 4th most in the NFL. Becton can pass protect better than anyone they currently have slated to start at left tackle.

NY Jets – Tristan Wirfs, Iowa offensive tackle. Wirfs showed up at the combine with a 40 in the 4.8 range and already had a reputation for his crazy impressive strength. Wirfs can play guard or tackle in year one and brings badly needed blocking to a struggling NY Jets offense.

Las Vegas – Jerry Jeudy, Alabama wide receiver. The Raiders have the worst wide receiver group in football. Jeudy is the best (according to some) wide receiver in the draft class.

San Francisco – CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma wide receiver. The 49ers as of yet haven’t resigned their best wideout from 2019, Emmanuel Sanders. In either case, drafting Lamb is in the interest of their club and winning for seasons to come. Lamb averaged over 20 yards a catch in his 2019 campaign.

Tampa Bay – Henry Ruggs, Alabama wide receiver. Many media voices have been predicting Tampa to draft an offensive lineman here. They could pick a defensive tackle if Brown or Kinlaw are available. I believe Ruggs makes too much sense, Tampa Bay could double down on their strengths and be impossible to stop on offense with Evans, Godwin, and Ruggs lining up.

Denver – Denzel Mims, Baylor wide receiver. The Broncos badly need a receiver across from Courtland Sutton. Mims showed at the senior bowl he’s not a three-route guy, and he showed at the combine he can MOVE (4.38 40).

Atlanta – C.J. Henderson, Florida cornerback. Henderson’s stock has risen with his strong combine performance and steady overall tape. PFF thinks Atlanta’s secondary drastically underperformed last year. The addition of Dante Fowler gives the Falcons a legitimate edge rusher.

Dallas – Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin center. If you think Jerry Jones won’t spend a first round pick on a center no one else was going to think about drafting until round 3, have I got a story for you. Biadasz won the Rimington Trophy awarded to the nation’s top center. Travis Frederick, the Cowboys standout center, retired this off-season leaving Dallas thin at center. The Cowboys like to spend high draft picks on linemen. Kristian Fulton could go here if Dallas wants to pick an interior OL later in the draft.

Miami – Andrew Thomas, Georgia offensive tackle. Miami needs serious help in the front five. Kind of an unlikely slide for Thomas, but Miami will draft him here for sure if he is available. Thomas can line up at right or left tackle.

Las Vegas – Kristian Fulton, LSU cornerback. The Raiders will need to replace some key assets in the secondary, losing Karl Joseph and Daryl Worley. It’s obvious Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock pay close attention to the championship game, where Fulton allowed zero receiving touchdowns. Fulton has allowed a completion rate of 40% since 2018.

Jacksonville – Josh Jones, Houston offensive tackle. Jones showed up and played well at Senior bowl week. Left tackle Cam Robinson has never lived up to the first round hype where he was drafted.

Philadelphia – Justin Jefferson, LSU wide receiver.  The Eagles should target wide receivers. Jefferson caught over 100 passes in his ’19 season. He’s 6 foot 3, and ran a 4.43 40 time.

Minnesota – A.J. Epenesa, Iowa defensive end. Epenesa performs at a high-all around level against the run, and as a pass rusher. The Vikings need a wide receiver along side Thielen, Michael Pittman or Brandon Aiyuk could fit here.

New England – Curtis Weaver, Boise State defensive end. Weaver PERFORMS consistently and had over 19 tackles for loss in 2019. Boise State has been producing quality defenders recently. Weaver represents a potentially high value selection here.

New Orleans – Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State wide receiver. Aiyuk is a YAC specialist with an ENORMOUS wingspan. His 80 inch wingspan is wider than almost all of the tight ends in this class. Aiyuk fits well with this Saints offense, and can help the Saints next QB adjust to the NFL.

Minnesota – A.J. Terrell, Clemson cornerback. Terrell is one of the steadier corners in the draft. He got burned by JaMarr Chase, but Chase is going to burn every one.

Miami – Xavier McKinney, Alabama safety. McKinney has shown he is a solid, all-around high level safety. Flores and Chris Grier have shown they care about the secondary by signing both Xavien Howard and Byron Jones to long term, high dollar contracts at corner. In free agency, Miami added front seven players like Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts, and Shaq Lawson. The Dolphins’ safety position is their weakest area on defense, McKinney is “high floor” player the Dolphins should be able to depend on.

Seattle – Bradlee Anae, Utah defensive end. Anae is a senior bowl standout player, but he played very well on a stacked Utah defense in 2019 as well. Anae had 13 sacks in 2019. Seattle has needs at defensive end and Anae’s stock has been on the rise.

Baltimore – Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma linebacker. Murray was all over the field at Oklahoma. The Ravens added Calais Campbell for a late round pick, but really need help at linebacker. Murray has shown versatility in coverage, run defense and occasionally as a pass rusher.

Tennessee – Jeff Gladney, TCU cornerback. I think Gladney fits Vrabel’s defense well. He’s been willing to get involved in defending the run, running corner blitzes, and can operate well in man or zone schemes.

Green Bay – Laviska Shenault, Colorado wide receiver. The Packers won’t actually draft a wide receiver, they’ll draft a random safety out of Utah or Iowa or somewhere. But Shenault would make sense for Green Bay. Davante Adams is the only realistic wide receiver Rodgers can turn to. Shenault’s built his brand on versatility. He can line up in the backfield, out wide, where ever, Shenault’s got a stocky build and moves well, like a running back. If the Packers want to utilize P.A. more Shenault could function like Ty Montgomery and keep the defense guessing what his role will be after the play starts.

San Francisco – Grant Delpit, LSU safety. The 49ers secondary got exposed late in the biggest game of the year. Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill had their way with the 49ers defensive backfield when it counted. Delpit rightfully catches blame for his missed tackles, PFF raves about his rare coverage ability. If nothing else, Delpit should be serviceable as a nickel.

Kansas City – Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma defensive tackle. Chris Jones is on the franchise tag, whether he is in the team’s plans long term remains to be seen. Gallimore give the Chiefs a little freedom to part with Jones if Gallimore continues to develop. Gallimore showed up with a terrific 40 time and Lance Zierlein wrote that Gallimore looked good in senior bowl drills, which may help him get drafted high.

 

Video of the day is Tom Brady being drafted. Also, former packers head coach Mike Sherman (shown in the video) looks like he kidnaps women and wears their skin as a mask.

Song is The Edge, by David Axelrod (from the movie Baby Driver)

I get stuck in these patterns of safe behavior. Loops that feel comfortable and predictable, but that steer me away from making “growth” choices. I’ll poke my head out and bump it on some new experience, and feel and think: “never again.”

I occasionally get faced with the reality of my own mistakes, seeing how peers, friends, coworkers have progressed in their lives while I seem to have frozen in time. A student I graduated high school with is now the Vice President of some large-ish company. Another is a lawyer. A young man I went to elementary school with has a PhD and makes silly money selling e-books and online classes he teaches. I know we’re not supposed to compare ourselves to others, but I still do.

I used to blame my parents, or think I was BORN this way of getting stuck or complacent. There may be a little truth to that thinking, but ultimately no one else but me controls me.

Thinking about my wins feels enormously empty when compared to my previous, grandiose plans. There is some line between self-hating narcissism and holding high expectations for oneself. I do the prior or both while convincing myself my self-talk is essential to push myself forward.

Sometimes, and I am not proud of this, I allow my problems to harm others. This is almost always friends, family members, sometimes a coworker.  Typically I just don’t text, email or call back. An innocuous enough inaction, I convince myself. People ignore my communications all the time. But when I care enough about what that person thinks, it hurts. I expect to be ignored, but that’s not how normal people are. Normal, healthy people don’t expect or want to be ignored. It likely makes them angry or sad.

I can remember several occasions I would be talking with a friend who kept in regular contact with a family member, parent, or all their family members. I kept thinking: “That’s just not how my family is. We talk once in a while, not all the time.” But as I’ve gotten older, I’ve realized that’s how I am. I don’t like receiving criticism, so I don’t share with people what’s going on in my life. Many of my life plans, from teenage-hood up through today, I don’t actually follow through on, and people I would share my plans with would understandably want to know what happened with: “that job” or “I thought you were going to school for an MBA” or “I thought you were moving out finally” or “I thought you said you were going to eat healthy.” This is a way that I have very much not grown up at all.

Most of my problems I feel I know the answer to solving, but struggle to force myself to act towards those answers.

I think I’m finally starting to fall asleep. (3:24 am)

Not everything’s been bad. I didn’t get married and lock myself in a nightmare divorce scenario. I don’t have any terminal illnesses. I’m not dead. I’ve just always thought too much, which has been my safety net and (a) great weakness.

I’ve started to watch myself, almost like in third person. I end up with thoughts like: “Dave needs to have some carbs or he gets REAL hungry.” “If Dave doesn’t go to the gym, he is going to lose it.” I feel this helps me reason or negotiate with my caveman brain, instead of just shouting orders and watching as I ignore them.

I’m signing off. Talk to your friends. Be willing to annoy them. Don’t be like me. They’ll deal with it.

Song of the post – Organs, by Of Monsters and Men

Late round/UDFA Quarterback prospects who could become the GUY –

(Leaving out Jalen Hurts, Jake Fromm, Anthony Gordon as likely already drafted passers)

Arizona, Khalil Tate – Dual threat, high ceiling quarterback out of Arizona. Tate’s best work came in his sophomore year, rushing for over a thousand yards and getting 10+ passing TD’s and 10+ rushing TD’s. Tate has arm strength, athleticism, and has shown he CAN perform at a high level. I feel he would best fit somewhere he can learn fundamentals, Seattle behind Russell Wilson, Philly with Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz, or San Francisco with Kyle Shanahan. Tate did not get an invite to the combine so he may go undrafted as teams are struggling to meet with players and run physicals at this time.

Iowa, Nate Stanley – Stanley received some early round draft hype coming out of the 2018 college season, but he returned to school for his senior year, and didn’t repeat at the same level. Stanley’s got desirable height at 6’4″, so a more old school GM like Giants GM Dave Gettleman or Bengals GM Mike Brown might appreciate what Stanley brings as a “pocket passer” as opposed to Tate who competes as a dual threat passer. Stanley, by and large, showed he can keep his turnovers low while maximizing his “deep ball accuracy” (Zierlein) throughout his career at Iowa. Parcells has worked with Cleveland in recent years, and Stanley’s alignment with the “Parcells rules” for drafting QBs (Senior, 30 starts, 23 wins, graduated, 2-1 TD/INT ratio) might influence Cleveland to look at Stanley as a late round passer.

North Texas, Mason Fine – Fine reminds me a lot of Case Keenum, a super prolific passer with ALL of the starts, and is a little shorter (5’11”) than many GMs like. Fine started his first game at North Texas when Obama was still in office. Fine’s YPA never flew off the board (avg. 7.6), but he was consistently an accurate passer and is used to a pass-heavy workload. A team like Arizona (already used to a below 6ft. passer) who passes at a high volume could see Fine as a fit for their offense (as a backup). The Texans could also fit, who’ve collected a group of reliable quick pass receivers (Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Darren Fells Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills) that could help local passer Fine adjust to an NFL offense.

Utah, Tyler Huntley – Huntley’s body of work at Utah showed a very low volume, ultra-efficient passer. Huntley led the Utes to an 11-3 campaign losing out to Oregon narrowly missing out on the CFB Playoffs. Huntley completed over 70 percent of his passes, 10+ yards per attempt with only 4 interceptions against 19 passing TDs (5 rushing). Huntley only thew 301 passes in 2019, suggesting he may be a good fit for a run first offense like Tennessee or Buffalo. I see traces of Alex Smith in Huntley: very risk averse, athletic, and takes what the defense gives him.

Hawaii, Cole McDonald – I don’t typically love system guys like McDonald, but Mahomes went to Texas Tech, the ultimate ‘system’ school, so I’m trying to work around my own biases. McDonald has a big arm, he’s pretty accurate, and he even had an impressive 40 time of 4.58 at the combine. McDonald is definitely used to a pass heavy system like the Chiefs, Rams, or Eagles have, 3+ receiver set offenses would tailor to his comfort zone more than a traditional NFL offense would. McDonald struggled mightily against pressure so he would likely need an already great offensive line/quick pass scheme to be effective.

The Patriot Way can’t be copied 

New Eagle corner Darius Slay said he lost respect of Lions coach Matt Patricia when Patricia told Slay he was “good, not elite.” I can certainly appreciate that the competitive nature of a professional athlete will cause them to bristle at the notion that they are “good” instead of “elite.” Patricia comes from an environment where the head coach (Belichick) routinely shreds their Hall of Fame, actual G.O.A.T. QB on a regular basis, and in front of everyone. So his calling Slay ‘good’ is pretty tame by comparison. Belichick has the leverage to continue to coach like this because Brady has simply put up with it for so long, and the leader of the Patriot way continues to win Super Bowls, and is himself the GOAT of coaches. Patricia and Texans coach B.O.B. are not the GOAT of coaches. They have won zero superbowls as head coaches. And their quarterbacks are younger men who are not used to/wont put up with the old-school hyper critical borderline toxic/actually toxic treatment that football coaches have been shouting out to their athletes for decades all across the country at every level of play. Some people (including myself some times) criticize this younger generation of players for being soft, but a lot of problems that went unaddressed in society are linked to unquestioned facets of society like “the football coach just yells all the time, that’s the way it is.” This change may show us young athletes who don’t respond to criticism with as thick skin as maybe fans are used to, but maybe we’ll be healthier as a society if we acknowledge how this type of behavior gets into the subconscious and try to be a little more human. Like most changes in society, it seems to be more of a trade off rather than an “only good” or an “only bad” change. In my millennial brain, I see it as a “more good than bad” change. Not that I know anything, I just had too much caffeine and needed to write something.

Song of the blog post is G-Eazy’s “Everything will be okay

Cincinnati – Joe Burrow, LSU quarterback. The Bengals would probably trade out of here for, say, four first round picks, but they wouldn’t draft any one else here.

Washington – Chase Young, Ohio State defensive end. While I won’t rule out Washington drafting Tua Tagovailoa. I think Chase still has the majority vote here, Haskins is largely unknown, and Tua remains a risk with his injury.

Detroit – Isaiah Simmons, Clemson Safety/Linebacker. Simmons’ stock jumped sky high from his combine performance. Okudah makes a lot of sense here, drawing comparisons to Patriot star corner Stephon Gilmore, a corner Matt Patricia is very familiar with. I have to believe Simmons, the linebacker/safety hybrid, will be viewed as the “better overall player” and Quinn/Patricia will want Simmons. I personally think Detroit should draft Tua, but I’ve heard very little about that being a real possibility.

NY Giants – Mekhi Becton, Louisville Offensive tackle. Becton is the biggest offensive tackle I can remember in the draft. Heavier than Jonathan Ogden, Leonard Davis, Orlando Brown, and he ran a very impressive 5.10 40 time. Gettleman has been pretty vocal about establishing the run, and Becton is this year’s Jawaan Taylor (run blocking tackle) except without the injury concerns.

Miami – Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama quarterback. His medical’s checked out since the injury. And he’s the best quarterback in the class.

LA Chargers – Jordan Love, Utah State quarterback. Love looks like a better fit for LA than Herbert.

Carolina – Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State cornerback. The Panthers may opt to tank in ’20 for Trevor Lawrence. Recently signed Teddy Bridgewater has an out in his contract after the 2021 season. Okudah is the best corner in the draft and the Panthers would be silly to not draft him.

Arizona – Jedrick Wills, Alabama offensive tackle. Trading for DeAndre Hopkins allows Arizona to address a badly suffering offensive line group. Wills is a technician who thrived at Alabama.

Jacksonville – Derrick Brown, Auburn defensive tackle. Brown would’ve been a first rounder in 2018, but he returned to school to finish his senior year.  Brown is a force against the run and as a pass rusher. This is a ‘best player available’ pick here, Jacksonville can line him up next to Marcell Dareus and Josh Allen/Yannick Ngakoue. Kristian Fulton or Tristan Wirfs could also go here.

Cleveland – Andrew Thomas, Georgia offensive tackle. Thomas has experience starting at left tackle, and crushed defenders as a run blocker and pass protector. The acquisition of Jack Conklin who played Right tackle in Tennessee allows Cleveland to quickly turn an area of weakness into a strength at Tackle.

NY Jets – Tristan Wirfs, Iowa offensive tackle. Wirfs showed up at the combine with a 40 in the 4.8 range and already had a reputation for his crazy impressive strength. Wirfs can play guard or tackle in year one and brings badly needed blocking to a struggling NY Jets offense.

Las Vegas – Jerry Jeudy, Alabama wide receiver. The Raiders have the worst wide receiver group in football. Jeudy is the best (according to some) wide receiver in the draft class.

San Francisco – CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma wide receiver. The 49ers as of yet haven’t resigned their best wideout from 2019, Emmanuel Sanders. In either case, drafting Lamb is in the interest of their club and winning for seasons to come. Lamb averaged over 20 yards a catch in his 2019 campaign.

Tampa Bay – Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina defensive tackle. Kinlaw had a strong senior bowl performance and a strong 2019 in general. Kinlaw is maybe the best player available at this slot. Kinlaw smoothly fits in where Ndamukong Suh lined up.

Denver – C.J. Henderson, Florida cornerback. The Broncos added A.J. Bouye but lost Chris Harris. Henderson’s stock has risen since the end of the college season, and teams really need 5 starting caliber defensive backs.

Atlanta – A.J. Epenesa, Iowa defensive end. Death, taxes, and the Falcons need a pass rusher: the only three constants in the universe. Epenesa is not a high ceiling edge rusher, but effective in the run game and as a pass rusher, Epenesa forced 4 fumbles in 2019, demonstrating his playmaker skills.

Dallas – Xavier McKinney, Alabama safety. McKinney was a reliable safety at college football’s talent factory, Alabama. He can start as a nickel or at safety if needs be.

Miami – Josh Jones, Houston offensive tackle. Miami needs serious help in the front five. Jones showed up well at the senior bowl and is expected to be a first round pick.

Las Vegas – Kristian Fulton, LSU cornerback. The Raiders will need to replace some key assets in the secondary, losing Karl Joseph and Daryl Worley. It’s obvious Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock pay close attention to the championship game, where Fulton allowed zero receiving touchdowns. Fulton has allowed a completion rate of 40% since 2018.

Jacksonville – Denzel Mims, Baylor wide receiver. Mims showed at the senior bowl he’s not a one trick pony. He’s got height, he’s got speed, he can run a route tree, the Jaguars could really use wide receiver outside of D.J. Chark to catch passes.

Philadelphia – Grant Delpit, LSU Safety. Delpit is maybe the best safety in this draft class. The Eagles need serious help at wide receiver and defensive back. Delpit would be a value pick at 21 who the Eagles desperately need. The Eagles could also draft yet another wide receiver, Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman.

Minnesota – Henry Ruggs, Alabama wide receiver. The Vikings will want to replace Stefon Diggs, and really need defensive back help. Ruggs is a BURNER who likely won’t fall this far.

New England – Justin Herbert, Oregon quarterback. Herbert won’t be available here, but the Patriots will draft him if he is. Herbert has a lot of raw potential Bill and Nick Caserio will find intriguing. If Herbert isn’t here, they could target Jacob Eason or trade back and draft Jake Fromm.

New Orleans – Laviska Shenault, Colorado WR. Michael Thomas is the only receiving threat on this roster. Shenault specializes in gadget, quick pass plays the Saints have been running with Brees at 40+ years old.

Minnesota – A.J. Terrell, Clemson cornerback. Terrell is one of the draft’s bigger-bodied corners and ran an impressive 4.42 40 time. While he can struggle against big receivers, Terrell’s used to big-time games (like the 2019 national title), Terrell will likely be thrust into a starting role immediately given the Vikings need and should be able to keep up with division standouts like Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson, and Davante Adams.

Miami – Trevon Diggs, Alabama cornerback. Standing at 6’2″, Diggs can hang with the league’s bigger receivers better than most. Lance Zierlein compared Diggs to Aqib Talib, who made his name as a tight end buster, and was a damn good corner for his whole career. Diggs performed well in his combine drills. Miami has two starting corners in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard and can use Diggs as a nickel.

Seattle – Curtis Weaver, Boise State defensive end. Weaver is the anti-D.K. Metcalf, who carries some bad weight but puts up consistently impressive numbers. The Seahawks look like they will lose Ziggy Ansah and Jadeveon Clowney, two starting outside defenders from 2019. Weaver is semi-local, Boise, Idaho being not TOO far from Seattle (as far as the north west goes.)

Baltimore – Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma linebacker. Murray was all over the field at Oklahoma. The Ravens added Calais Campbell for a late round pick, but really need help at linebacker. Murray has shown versatility in coverage, run defense and occasionally as a pass rusher.

Tennessee – Jeff Gladney, TCU cornerback. The Titans have some holes to plug on defense. Gladney’s an aggressive tackler and not shy about corner blitz assignments. The Titans lose Logan Ryan and Tramaine Brock this offseason.

Green Bay – Tee Higgins, Clemson wide receiver. The Packers have built a strong defense, and Aaron Rodgers desperately needs a receiver to throw to when Davante Adams is triple covered. Higgins’ ceiling is sky high. The Packers could also look at a tight end like Harrison Bryant or Cole Kmet.

San Francisco – Jeremy Chinn, Southern Illinois safety. Chinn was one of the fastest people at the combine, is 6’3″, and bench pressed 20 reps of 225. HE WEIGHS IN AT 220+. This is a small school Derwin James. The 49ers were getting burned not only by Tyreek Hill, but Sammy Watkins who is not an in demand wide receiver at this time.

Kansas City – Zack Baun, Wisconsin linebacker. The Chiefs suck at linebacker. Baun can rush the passer, but is effective at staying home and stopping the run as well.

Song of today’s blog is the new Onerepublic single

I can’t post pictures, they’re all copyrighted :(. (Here are some highlights courtesy of watchstadium.com)

Cunningham took over at QB for the injured Jawon Pass, and while he’s demonstrated some scrambling ability, Cunningham chucks the ball for over ELEVEN AND A HALF yards per attempt. That’s more than Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Trevor Lawrence threw for last season. The interesting thing about this is Cunningham’s completion percentage was kind of low at 62.6%, which means his passes at 11.5 YPA were even deeper downfield than a Burrow or Tagovailoa who achieved 11+ yards per attempt at 70+% completion.

Here are some key stats for Cunningham in 2019:

62.6% completion percentage, 2065 yards passing, 11.5 yards per attempt, 22 (passing) TDs, 5 INTs, 122 carries, 482 yards rushing, 4.0 yards per carry, 6 TDs (rushing). 5 fumbles, 3 lost fumbles.

Cunningham did not throw as many passes as other QBs, we don’t know what Cunningham’s play will look like over a full season of games and starts. Cunningham had some ups and downs. Not every game was perfect. He played against Clemson (a stacked future NFL defense) and looked pretty bad in his limited work. Against Clemson, Cunningham threw eleven passes, completed four of them, and threw one interception (no TDs). Clearly his game has room for improvement against elite defenses.

Cunningham’s best game (in my opinion) came in Louisville’s bowl game against Mississippi State. Against Mississippi State, Cunningham played against NFL talent like Willie Gay Jr. (LB), Chauncey Rivers (DL) and Kobe Jones (DL). Cunningham went 16/23 for 279 yards, 2 TDs, 16 carries for 81 yards rushing. Cunningham did a great job of scrambling (5 yards per carry), tossed the ball consistently deep down field (12+ Yards Per Attempt). Trying to weed out Cunningham’s target share has been infuriatingly difficult as Louisville often starts Cunningham with another QB in the same game.

I know stats are boring, but they tell us a story of a young QB who can absolutely SLING it without tons of NFL talent in his receiving corps, whereas hotshot quarterbacks like Burrow, and Tagovailoa have NFL caliber receivers to throw to. Cunningham will be draft eligible in 2021, teams may be more willing to look at Louisville as a QB school with the success of Lamar Jackson with Baltimore. Cunningham’s name joins a growing list of names like Jamie Newman, Spencer Rattler, and Tyler Shough who could really take off in 2020 with new opportunities at Georgia, Oklahoma, and Oregon.

Song of the day is “Moon” by Kid Francescoli.