New England’s draft will be remembered for how young passer Drake Maye develops.
Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo understand how crucial offensive line play is. Instead of drafting promising left tackle prospects like Kingsley Suamataia or Patrick Paul, they opted for a possession receiver with average traits in Ja’Lynn Polk. While Polk certainly belongs in the NFL, Patriot starters Kendrick Bourne and Pop Douglas can do all of the things that Polk can. Caeden Wallace, their third round selection started on the right side for Penn State and was New England’s only tackle selection of the draft.
Compared to a typical Belichick draft, Wolf/Mayo drafted no running backs and only one defensive player. One can only conclude that this “new” regime of Patriots football will center more on passing the ball and less on controlling the clock and executing on special teams and defense based on the personnel in the ’24 class. (2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 OL, 2 QB, 1 CB)
Tennessee QB Joe Milton III is an intriguing prospect, its difficult to imagine he will get the time and attention he needs to develop as a passer with Drake Maye in the building.
If Drake Maye gets the bulk of the starts he will be running for his life behind this offensive line. Jacoby Brissett will at least know how to better handle a collapsing pocket. AFC East rivals Miami and Buffalo each added two defensive linemen and the Jets still boast a difficult front seven for any offensive line to face.
Javon Baker and Jaheim Bell look like later round bright spots if Alex Van Pelt can find a way to work them into the offense. Bell is an athletic move tight end who also has experience taking snaps from the backfield from his time at South Carolina. Baker looks like a real wide receiver. He routinely outclassed Big 12 defensive backs at UCF. Against their biggest opponent, Baker went for 134 yards and 2 TDs in their game against Oklahoma. I believe Javon Baker can legitimately become Wide Receiver 1 for this offense before 2024 ends.
Ignoring defensive needs may come back to bite this team if Mayo starts Drake Maye this season. A young quarterback still learning the game may be forced into early-and-often risky throws due to an aging defense lacking depth giving up scores.
Detroit cast the mold for how to resurrect a long dead franchise by building out the offensive line first. New England will be drafting in the top seven again next year, and hopefully can draft a left tackle who is as talented and healthy as the AFC East demands of him next April.
Non-song of the post. – NVidia CEO Jensen Huang talking about resilience
Watching Hunter Henry lateral a pass on 4th down to offensive lineman Cole Strange in order to avoid a home loss to division rival Miami made me realize, now is the time to look to the future. The Patriots might be able to string together some wins if Trent Brown and the Jones duo (Jonathan Jones and Jack Jones) can get back to being healthy, it’s tough to have high expectations for them from these first two weeks. Over the past decade, the Patriots offensive line has typically been above average if not elite. They are neither this season. Both tackle spots need to be addressed. Even in their own division this group wont be able to hold up against pass rushers like Von Miller, Jaelan Phillips and the usual suspects of penetrating AFC East pass rushers.
The question of quarterback will need to be addressed. While Mac Jones hasn’t looked like the problem for New England this season, it’s fair to ask if bigger, more athletic players don’t give the team a better chance to win. Mel Kiper has put Duke’s Riley Leonard in the spotlight and it’s impossible to ignore how pass after pass Shedeur Sanders looks like he’s been playing SEC caliber defenses his whole life. And then you have a crew of middle-tier quarterbacks that any of whom could be the next Brock Purdy. Cameron Ward from Washington State has grown leaps and bounds this year with a win over Wisconsin (and 0 INTs so far), undersized but deadly accurate Mikey Keene of Fresno State (2 wins over Power 5 schools), and perpetually embattled Spencer Rattler who showed real grit against Georgia and his own paper-thin offensive line. Let’s get to the picks –
Round 1 – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State OT – New England needs to make it a top priority to get healthy and high level blockers on the outside. Fashanu, Joe Alt, or maybe Patrick Paul have enough good tape to earn a first round draft selection. Fashanu is the belle of the ball as far as left tackles go, earning praise from ESPN’s Jordan Reid and others. He would’ve been a first round pick in 2023 if he’d declared.
Round 2 – Calen Bullock, USC Safety – Patriots swiss army safety Kyle Dugger is finishing up his rookie contract. If New England extends Dugger long term, New England is best served spending this pick on a first rounder that falls or more offensive line help. Bullock has the size Belichick likes and intercepted 5 passes in 2022. Bullock could put on more weight, but that’s an easier problem to solve than having to shed weight.
Round 3 – Cade Stover, Ohio State TE – Outside of Brock Bowers, there aren’t a lot of big names at tight end that can both catch and block so far in this draft class. Stover would’ve been drafted last year had he declared. Luke Lachey is an intriguing tight end, but Stover is a more accomplished blocker. Hunter Henry is the second highest paid Patriot and is in his final year of the contract. New England has shown again and again how highly they favor the tight end position.
Round 4 – Blake Fisher, Notre Dame RT – New England needs fresh blood at both tackle spots. Fisher has played for over 1,000 snaps and graded out above average at both pass and run blocking according to PFF. He’s a taller lineman at 6’6″ and drawn only 4 penalties in three seasons at Notre Dame. Fisher held up well against Clemson and admirably against a tough Ohio State defensive line.
Round 5 – Tory Horton, Colorado State WR – The 6’2″ Nevada transfer caught 15(!) passes on TV against Colorado two days ago. Horton has zero drops in two games so far this season. Horton caught 6 passes and a touchdown against Michigan to start the season in 2022. Horton should thrive with more consistent QB play. 56 of his 81 yards against Washington State came after the catch.
Round 6 – Rylie Mills, Notre Dame DT – Senior D-Lineman Mills sacked Drake Maye twice during their game against UNC in 2022. His 6’5″ frame should help with deflecting passes from Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa and others. Mills slimmed down in ’23 to the 290 range and doesn’t carry much excess fat. Mills has played well against the run and the pass.
Round 6 – Mike Sainristil, Michigan CB – The Massachusetts native returns home to New England to back up a veteran corner group. Sainristil gives up completions (65% allowed) but only one TD allowed (week 13 against Ohio State) on his watch. Sainristil is a willing tackler and is a special teams candidate with his leadership and experience from 4 years at Michigan.
Round 7 – Will Howard, Kansas State QB – Howard is 6’5″ and over 240 lbs. He’s in his 4th season at Kansas State and has improved steadily throughout his time as a Wildcat. Howard has 3 rushing touchdowns and 8 passing in three games in 2023. A host of names would be appropriate in the seventh round as backup quarterbacks for New England. Western Kentucky’s Austin Reed, Washington State’s Cameron Ward, Wake Forests’ Sam Hartman could all blossom in a stable environment at the next level.
After failing to secure substantial upgrades at key offensive positions, New England can expect to pick early in the 2024 draft. Buffalo largely keeps their first place roster intact, Miami still boasts Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill on offense and adds Jalen Ramsey in the secondary, and the Jets bring in Aaron Rodgers and draft two starters in the first two rounds with Will McDonald IV and Joe Tippmann.
The Patriots major offseason moves include signing offensive tackle Riley Reiff, wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, and tight end Mike Gesicki. Reiff is listed at the starting right tackle on espn.com’s depth chart. Heavily penalized and inconsistent Trent Brown looks to be the starting left tackle for the 2023 season. Gesicki had his moments with Miami, but is unlikely to be a key contributor with an undersized QB like Mac Jones who may struggle to see the middle of the field.
While Bill Belichick deserves some credit for adding value players throughout his draft haul, at no point did he add even a late round offensive tackle to compete with Trent Brown. Even right tackle is still a question as Reiff hasn’t been a high level blocker in some time. Players like Dalton Wagner and Richard Gouraige, starting SEC left tackles went undrafted and signed with rival AFC teams while New England finished off their draft with two defensive backs after making two of their FIRST three picks defensive backs.
Veteran wide receiver Kendrick Bourne commented about the pass protection for Mac Jones in early December after a frustrating loss to a vulnerable Bills team that now runs the division ever since Tom Brady left New England.
“We’ve got to get the ball downfield. Mac needs more time. He’s obviously running around. It’s hard to get the ball downfield when you can’t really have time to throw,” Bourne said. “No knock to the line, it’s just what we need to work on. The receivers can’t do nothing if the ball can’t get downfield, if we can’t throw it past five yards, it’s going to be a long game.”
In what may be Bill Belichick’s final season with the team, the Patriots formula of “Run the ball, play defense” may not be enough to compete in what is shaping up to be the toughest AFC East in NFL history.
I have Chicago trading down twice, once with Houston and again with Carolina. Chicago can draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba an old friend to their quarterback if they are serious about giving Justin Fields a chance at being a starting quarterback. The future first round picks netted in their trade down moves can be used to move up in the draft if Fields doesn’t work out and they want Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in 2024.
Houston moves up and acquires Nick Caserio’s latest 5-star quarterback (the only in this draft class) in Bryce Young.
NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has been hyping Anthony Richardson and I believe he will go early in the draft. Carolina looks like they could be a real football team with a good quarterback, and Richardson might actually play better in the NFL than in Florida with okay pass protection.
Arizona taking Jalen Carter at three is pretty standard stuff, unless they get a trade down offer they like. I believe the Colts will like Levis because Colts head coach Shane Steichen should be able to unlock a more raw prospect like Levis. Stroud had a terrific game against Georgia, but may struggle on a team without strong receiver play, like Indianapolis.
Seattle goes with the big End in Tyree Wilson, they drafted two first rounders out of Texas Tech in the past 7-8 years in Jordyn Brooks and LJ Collier. Jon Schneider is a genius but clearly has his own big board and doesn’t care about perceived value when making draft selections. Seattle has favored the bigger defensive ends so they may genuinely value Tyree Wilson more than draft darling Will Anderson.
Detroit gets a dream pick with Will Anderson, they can take CJ Stroud here if Brad Holmes is high on Stroud.
Obviously the Raiders moved on from Derek Carr and will be watching tape on all the major quarterbacks in this draft class. Raiders general manager Dave Ziegler went on record saying: “it doesn’t mean we’re going to have an immediate answer this year. ” about finding a new quarterback. I believe they would draft one of the “big 4” quarterbacks if one is available at seven. Stroud would have good weapons in Las Vegas with Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow and could reasonably be expected to succeed if Vegas can improve the pass protection in 2023.
Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot has been challenging to figure out as a drafting general manager. His first two seasons, he’s taken two tall, fast receiving weapons in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. The Falcons badly need pass rush and more competition at quarterback, but they have not made those positions a priority in the past, so I wouldn’t expect them to now. Quentin Johnston is an okay enough value selection at eight and fits Fontenot’s pattern of large fast men in the receiving group.
Philadelphia likes to target the trenches early in the draft but are very close to a superbowl and bringing in a top corner to possibly replace James Bradberry could a major priority. Gonzalez has the size to maybe cover Travis Kelce or another similar move tight end.
Tennessee needs a left tackle after cutting Taylor Lewan and can have their pick. Johnson feels the safest and attended the same school as head coach Mike Vrabel (Ohio State). Ran Carthon is a new general manager and may shake things up, but this selection is the easiest, most logical pick for them in this mock draft.
Houston drafts Jordan Addison to add a real receiving threat for Bryce Young. They have so many needs, this pick could be almost any position and it wouldn’t be wrong for them.
The Jets add a versatile lineman in Peter Skoronski. Offensive tackle continues to be a problem for the Jets.
The Patriots will inevitably trade down and draft some linebacker/safety from Northwestern Tech-State that no one has heard of because that’s just what they do. In Fantasy mock draft world, the Patriots draft a future left tackle in Broderick Jones after really struggling at both tackle positions last year. They badly need wide receivers and safety help. And corner help. And a new center.
The Packers get to draft another defensive back in the first round as Adrian Amos is not under contract and Branch is widely regarded as the draft’s premier safety/nickel.
I went a little kooky here, but Washington may choose to let Daron Payne walk and sign Bryan Bresee to replace him. Payne had a great contract year, but an experienced GM like Martin Mayhew knows you can’t pay everyone.
The Steelers typically value front seven players early in the draft. There are no blue chip left tackles available, unless you’re high on Jaelyn Duncan. They have impact defenders Cam Sutton and Terrell Edmunds on expiring contracts. Skinner is a huge safety who could step in right away and cover the growing trend of “big slots” and eventually move into a starting safety role. When the Steelers drafted Terrell Edmunds he was considered a reach, but Tomlin and the Steelers brass seem to value the bigger defensive backs enough to draft them high.
Detroit needs competition all over that defense and would love Joey Porter Jr.
Tampa Bay has cap problems and needs a quarterback. If they don’t trade up I believe they dive back into adding to the secondary. They likely cannot resign starter Jamel Dean, as they are paying $35 million to Tom Brady, among other financial obligations. Witherspoon is a technician and Buccaneers GM Jason Licht has invested early and often in the Tampa secondary.
The Seahawks don’t typically draft corners early and may not like the selection of defensive tackles at this point in the draft. John Michael Schmitz is a terrific center and could start for Seattle for a decade plus. This would be on the less zany picks of Jon Schneider’s first round picks. Their interior offensive line is a wreck and do not have 2022 starting center Austin Blythe under contract for 2023.
The Chargers have cap problems that will lead them to release Keenan Allen in my opinion. Allen has been used primarily in the slot in LA, where Utah TE Dalton Kincaid could line up based on his usage at Utah. Daniel Jeremiah says most teams have Kincaid as TE1 in the draft. The Chargers have had success with Utah players in the past.
Baltimore favors value, and value on defense in the draft. They have three 35+ year olds in the front seven in Calais Campbell, JPP, and Justin Houston. Drafting Myles Murphy in a strong locker room of defenders might be just what he needs to unlock his potential. Myles Murphy has been compared to Travon Walker (first pick overall of 2022 draft) from a physical height, weight, speed perspective.
Minnesota needs corner help as always. Starter Patrick Peterson may be on the move, and they are skinny outside of Peterson at corner. Smith is a fundamentally sound corner, he doesn’t have prototypical, Richard Sherman size at 6’0″, but held up against a rough SEC schedule.
Jacksonville looks uneasy at every offensive line position except left tackle. Jaguars GM Trent Baalke favors overly large defensive linemen from Power five programs but may like Mauch’s versatility if they retain Jawaan Taylor and need help inside or let Taylor walk and want a right tackle.
The Giants made the playoffs with Daniel Jones and scrapwork help at wide receiver. Zay Flowers is a legit wide receiver outside or in the slot. This is a marriage of needs versus value at pick 25. The Giants have a strong relationship with Boston College since former coach Tom Coughlin had coached at BC as well.
I believe Dallas will look very closely at Bijan Robinson here, but Dallas has long made offensive line a major priority in the draft. I believe Dallas will cut Tyron Smith, have Tyler Smith start at left tackle in 2023, and could value O’Cyrus Torrence to replace him at left guard.
Buffalo has had one of the NFL’s top defenses for two or three years, and their top safety play has been a big part of that. Jordan Poyer is not under contract and Micah Hyde is over 30 and played only two games last year due to injury. Sydney Brown is an excellent coverage safety and would start on the Buffalo defense.
Cincinnati doesn’t seem to need good offensive line play to win playoff games. I think Cody Mauch or O’Cyrus Torrence would make sense here if available. I picked Emmanuel Forbes for them so Bengals fans can talk about something other than Eli Apple next offseason. Forbes gave up three touchdowns to pair with six interceptions. PFF claims he was targeted only one time (one catch for six yards) by Bryce Young in their game against Alabama.
New Orleans typically favors offensive linemen and defense in the first round. Like Tampa Bay they have massive cap problems and are very thin at quarterback. Jameis Winston is their only contracted quarterback. Mazi Smith would make sense here, I have Lukas Van Ness just as a value selection. The Saints need help at corner and could go Deonte Banks or Kelee Ringo as well.
Philadelphia takes Luke Wypler in the annual “Will Jason Kelce retire” contest. PFF loves Wypler and correctly pointed out Centers don’t often declare his early. Some have speculated Philadelphia could take Bijan Robinson because of their perceived superbowl window.
The Chiefs may not keep Orlando Brown Jr. and have shown that offensive line is a priority for them. Harrison is experienced with pass heavy offenses coming from Oklahoma and may be Kansas City’s best bet at 30. They could also explore edge rusher and wide receiver here. If Travis Kelce retires, the Chiefs could target tight end as well.
If you don’t like my picks, it’s because I hate you and your favorite team.
Notable players not in this mock: Bijan Robinson, Texas RB – Jeremiah and others claim Robinson is a top five player overall in this draft class. Where he goes is up in the air.
Josh Downs, UNC WR – Downs is a smaller slot receiver who may drop because he lacks the size and versatility of his peers
Kelee Ringo, UGA CB – Ringo looks like a surefire starter to me. His detractors claim he isn’t consistent enough to be a high pick.
Trenton Simpson. Clemson LB – Linebackers are becoming the fullback of the defense. Simpson doesn’t seem to have the coverage chops to be an exciting name in the draft circles.
Luke Musgrave, Oregon State TE – Musgrave looks like a late first round pick to me. I just couldn’t find a place for him in this mock draft.
Michael Mayer, Notre Dame TE – Mayer might be a top 15 pick. Teams 13-16 could justifiably draft him there. A lot of teams that like tight ends already have one, and don’t run 12 formation enough to justify drafting another tight end this early.
Today’s song of the post is “Alchemy” by Above and Beyond
Patriots fans are at the point in the season where we are hoping for Miami to lose so we can make the playoffs, which means it’s time for a 2023 mock draft.
Round One: Broderick Jones, UGA OT – Jones is not as dominant a run blocker as some other prospects in this class, but has allowed zero sacks all season. The Patriots have had less reliable offensive line play than in prior seasons, Jones would make everything easier for this struggling passing offense. The Patriots have had success with former Georgia standouts David Andrews and Isaiah Wynn. Paris Johnson Jr. and Peter Skoronski would be great but will likely be gone before the Patriots draft.
Round Two: Mike Morris, Michigan DE – Morris has the size (6’6″, 292) to play inside or outside, something the Patriots have liked in their defenders. Morris has seven sacks for Michigan in 2022. Coach Belichick has favored Michigan defenders in the past. I would love Andre Carter II here but I don’t believe he will be available.
Round Three: JL Skinner, Boise State S – Skinner is a mammoth safety (6’4″, 220), with 4 interceptions in 2022. Belichick has shown with Kyle Dugger how much he likes big safety/linebacker hybrids.
Round Four: Rashee Rice, SMU WR – Rice has real speed and tons of experience playing on the outside. Rice struggled with drops in 2022 with 9 after having only one in 2021.
Round Four: Zach Charbonnet, UCLA RB – Charbonnet has demonstrated he is a capable receiving back and has a stocky build at 220 lbs. The Patriots do not need running backs at all, but they continue to draft running backs anyway.
Round Six: Steven Gilmore, Marshall CB – Gilmore has allowed 42 percent of passes thrown his way to be complete and has allowed one touchdown and three interceptions on the season. Gilmore has a skinny build at 6′ and 170 lbs, which may cause him to drop in the draft. His older brother Stephon was a star corner for the Patriots in his prime.
Round Six: Jerrod Clark, Coastal Carolina DT – Clark has great size (6’4″, 340 lbs) and has been a stalwart run defender for Coastal this season.
The Patriots defense has continued to be stellar, even without early draft picks or Jalen Ramsey-caliber trades. The offense and the passing game hasn’t been this anemic since the Clinton administration. Part of the blame goes to unsteady offensive line play, part of the blame goes to the uncreative, conservative play-calling of Matt Patricia(?), and a chunk of the blame has to go the the man under center. We saw in 2021 with the signing of Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Jonnu Smith that simply spending a lot of money on offensive skill players isn’t enough fix a damaged offense. It would appear that Bill Belichick needs to find a bona fide, suitable offensive play caller and get the offensive line running better, whether that’s through the draft or free agency. Bourne, Agholor, and Smith should all contribute more meaningfully if the blocking improves and the play calling improves.
Detroit – Will Anderson, Alabama DE – Detroit has the last ranked defense allowing the 2nd most rushing yards per attempt and the third most rushing yards per attempt. QB Jared Goff is being forced into bad throws by always playing from behind. Detroit will look at quarterbacks here, but neither have terrific upside and neither will experience any success playing on a team with the worst defense in football.
Houston – C.J. Stroud, Ohio State QB – Nick Caserio has a thing for five star quarterbacks. Houston has the worst run defense in football and needs receivers/tight ends for their quarterback. I expect Houston to move on from Davis Mills if Bryce Young or CJ Stroud are available when they draft.
Carolina – Hendon Hooker, Tennessee QB – Hooker is having a career year beating Alabama and throwing 21 TDs to 1 INT. The old school staff in Carolina will appreciate Hooker’s plus height (6’4″) and extensive starting history (35+ starts) while the analytics crowd will like his career-best passing stats and dual threat ability that Stroud and Young haven’t demonstrated. Hooker grew up in North Carolina before attending VA Tech and Tennessee.
Pittsburgh – Jordan Addison, USC WR – I wanted Peter Skoronski for the offensive line, but Addison makes too much sense. Addison is a terrific receiver no matter where he goes, having a rapport with Pickett at Pittsburgh only helps Pickett’s development.
Jacksonville – Jalen Carter, Georgia DT – Jaguars GM Trent Baalke has a thing for big defensive linemen. He drafted Oregon teammates Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner to play defensive line when he was with San Francisco. Carter is a terrific prospect as a pass rusher and against the run and played alongside 2022 jaguars first round pick Trevon Walker at Georgia.
Las Vegas – Peter Skoronski, Northwestern OT – The Raiders offensive line is still in bad shape. Carr will have more time to throw if Peter Skoronski can learn to play on the right side of the line. Skoronski is one of the top prospects in the draft earning praise for his run blocking and pass protection.
Tampa Bay – Bryce Young, Alabama QB – Even if Tom doesn’t retire, it would be hard to Tampa to pass up Bryce Young in the draft.
Philadelphia (From New Orleans) – Bryan Bresee, Clemson DT – Fletcher Cox may finally retire this offseason on Bresee would give the Eagles plenty of competition to replace him. Philadelphia has long made OL/DL a priority early in the draft. Bresee is a top pass rusher in the draft and earned commendation on his lean build from PFF.
Houston (From Cleveland) –Quentin Johnston, TCU WR – The Texans are a bad overall roster. They are skinny at wide receiver. Johnston is a native Texan and a huge target. PFF has lauded his YAC ability and would help QB1 for Houston open up the pass game, and consequently, the run game.
Seattle (From Denver) – Myles Murphy, Clemson DE – Seattle has avoided the rebuild and looks to go to the playoffs this year. Their defense is a problem and Murphy is great against the run and a strong pass rusher, both areas of weakness for Seattle.
Arizona – Broderick Jones, Georgia OT – Jones has excelled as a pass protector this season and his 6’4″ height might be preferable for Murray’s height situation. Arizona has struggled on offense and in pass blocking.
Chicago – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State WR – Chicago badly needs weapons and Justin Fields is looking like he may work out for Chicago long term.
Green Bay – Kelee Ringo, Georgia CB – Until a new general manager takes over in Green Bay, or Aaron Rodgers retires, Green Bay will continue to favor defense and secondary early in the draft.
Detroit (From LA Rams) – Cam Smith, South Carolina CB – Detroit has a bottom tier secondary, Smith is a top shelf corner in the draft. Detroit could also look at wide receiver if someone catches Brad Holmes’ eye.
Indianapolis – Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State OT – The Colts used to be the gold standard for offensive line play. The Jonathan Taylor/Frank Reich offense can work again once they have balanced blockers on the line.
Cincinnati – Nolan Smith, Georgia OLB/DE – Cincinnati would benefit from Smith’s pass rushing skills. The Bengals continue to struggle at offensive line and look anemic without Jamarr Chase.
New England – Jordan McFadden, Clemson OT – McFadden is a four year starter at Clemson and New England’s normally steady offensive line play has been anything but this season.
Washington – Brian Branch, Alabama CB – Washington’s secondary needs love at corner. They could also look at QB if there is someone they like here or wide receiver.
Atlanta – Andre Carter II, Army DE – Carter is 6’7″ and a highly productive pass rusher at Army.
Denver (From Miami through San Francisco) – Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M Safety – Kareem Jackson can’t play forever, the Broncos can draft at a position of need or they can draft for value. Johnson is an intriguing safety prospect who can replace Jackson in the near future.
LA Chargers – Michael Mayer, Notre Dame TE – The chargers wide receivers have had difficulty staying healthy. Mayer brings value in the run game is a serious upgrade as a receiving threat as well.
Seattle – Trenton Simpson, Clemson LB – Simpson has covered well in the slot and has the size to help in stopping the run.
Jets – Anton Harrison, Oklahoma OT – The Jets cant keep their offensive line healthy. Harrison is not the dream prospect that Skoronski or Jones is, but would help keep QB1 for the Jets upright better than the revolving door they’ve had.
Baltimore – Joey Porter Jr., Penn State CB – Baltimore has questions to answer about Lamar Jackson and the type of offense he’s going to thrive in if he remains a Raven for the long term future. Porter Jr. has excellent size and the Ravens will be very familiar with his name.
Kansas City – B.J. Ojulari, LSU DE – Kansas City has one of the strongest rosters, but could use help rushing the passer outside of Chris Jones.
Dallas – Trey Palmer, Nebraska WR – The Dallas offense can be the highest scoring in football with enough receiving weapons. Palmer’s had a breakout season
New York Giants – Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee WR – Hyatt played well against Alabama and is having a terrific season overall. The Giants are suddenly relevant and in need of capable wide receivers.
Tennessee – Ryan Hayes, Michigan OT – A major part of Blake Corum’s rushing success, Hayes could supplant injury prone Taylor Lewan at left tackle.
Minnesota – Jacob Cowing, Arizona WR – The Vikings are enjoying a ton of immediate success under Kevin O’Connell. Cowing could help the Vikings break the damn in arms races against teams like Buffalo and Kansas City.
Buffalo – Jordan Battle, Alabama Safety – Buffalo is experiencing injury issues from their highly touted safety tandem, Battle would’ve been a top pick in 2021, but chose to return to school.
Philadelphia – Bijan Robinson, Texas RB – The Eagles have a complete roster and their record reflects that. Robinson would give them an immediate boost on offense as a runner/receiver if Roseman wants to capitalize on what may be a short SuperBowl window with Jalen Hurts on a rookie contract and the whole team clicking.
1 Jacksonville – Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan DE – Jaguars LT Cam Robinson has been franchise tagged. Hutchinson makes the most sense for Baalke and Pederson.
2 Detroit – Malik Willis, Liberty QB – Looking at the quarterbacks in the ’22 class and looking at CJ Stroud and Bryce Young as the stars of the 2023 draft class, Willis with all of his flaws looks like the highest ceiling prospect out of all of his peers. The Lions will start Jared Goff in 2022 regardless of who they draft. Malik Willis could use some help with his accuracy, but looks lightyears ahead of where Josh Allen was at this stage. Willis most closely resembles super QBs Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen with his cannon arm and his ability to move the ball as a runner. Willis will check Dan Campbell’s character box.
3 Houston – Ikem Ekwonu, NC State OL – Lovie Smith specifically first mentioned running the football when asked about running an NFL team. The Texans offensive line when healthy can pass protect, but isn’t beefy in run blocking. The Texans were last place in both yards per carry and total rushing yards last season. Icky is known for his power run blocking.
4 New York Jets – Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon DE – Thibodeaux will fill the role occupied by Nick Bosa when Robert Saleh coached at San Francisco. Some intelligent people like Daniel Jeremiah and Jordan Reid believe Travon Walker will get drafted ahead of Thibodeaux. I believe the Jets will desire the pass rush skill of Thibodeaux more than the overall ceiling of Walker.
5 New York Giants – Evan Neal, Alabama OT – With the struggles New York has had at offensive line, they would be lucky to get Evan Neal.
6 Carolina – Charles Cross, Ole Miss OT – The last of the premium tackles, Carolina faces a rebuild in 2022. Cross will be important as they are gutted at O-line.
7 New York Giants (From Chicago) – Travon Walker, Georgia DE – Walker feels like a Wink Martindale guy. The Giants are still soft at defensive end and Martindale could get the best out of Travon Walker.
8 Atlanta – Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame Safety – Young Falcons GM Terry Fontenot invested early in safety last year with Richie Grant in the second round, and they still need help in that area. Hamilton is a prototype safety, and while he had a bad 40 time, he played plenty fast in pads.
9 Seattle (From Denver) – Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa OT – My spidey sense is telling me Seattle will run the ball more with a new face at quarterback. Penning is a bruising run blocker, and can only get better as a pass protector :). If they get Duane Brown back for another season they might draft a cornerback here.
10 New York Jets (From Seattle) – Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati CB – The Jets are terrible at cornerback. And Gardner is an excellent cornerback. Played well against Alabama’s starters.
11 Washington – Garrett Wilson, Ohio State WR – Wilson’s a scheme fit for Scott Turner’s vertical passing scheme.
12 Minnesota – Derek Stingley, LSU CB – Minnesota needs help badly at cornerback. Stingley has played like an elite corner before.
13 Houston (From Cleveland) – Devin Lloyd, Utah Linebacker – Lovie Smith emphasized takeaways when asked about building a team. Lloyd happens to specialize in takeaways. Smith had some talented linebackers like Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs when he coached Chicago.
14 Baltimore – George Karlaftis, Purdue DE – Like Walker, Karlaftis has the size to move around the defensive line.
15 Philadelphia (From Miami) – Jermaine Johnson, FSU DE – The Eagles are known for bringing a competitive defensive line. In 2021, they were the second worst team in sacks (29) and Jermaine Johnson was consistent as a pass rusher for Florida State.
16 Philadelphia (From Indianapolis) – Trent McDuffie, Washington CB – McDuffie was an excellent zone corner at Washington and should fit right in with Jonathan Gannon’s defense for Philly.
17 LA Chargers – Roger McCreary, Auburn CB – The Chargers have favored defensive backs early in the draft for several years now. McCreary is battle tested and allowed in the low 40 percent mark for completions. His lone touchdown allowed came against Georgia in 2021. They have a need at defensive tackle, I’m not convinced they will want Jordan Davis if he won’t be able to hold up for the 17 overtime games the Chargers are bound to play in in 2022.
18 New Orleans – Zion Johnson, BC OL – The Saints struggled to run the ball in 2021. The Saints’ interior offensive line could use some work. Johnson is an elite run blocker and could line up at center or guard.
19 Philadelphia – Jordan Davis, Georgia DT – The Eagles are getting older on the defensive line. Davis may need some time to adjust to an NFL schedule as a full time starter, the return of Fletcher Cox will give him that. His combine performance solidifies his first round status.
20 Pittsburgh – David Ojabo, Michigan DE – The Steelers have long prioritized an aggressive front seven. Ojabo may not be able to play in 2022, but he’s still learning the game and can blossom in the Steelers defense.
21 New England – Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson CB – Booth is an excellent man corner which Patriots coach Bill Belichick will covet.
22 Green Bay (From Las Vegas) – Daxton Hill, Michigan DB – Hill played slot corner for Michigan and could fill that role for Green Bay. The Packers have shown a commitment to early investment in secondary in seasons past.
23 Arizona – Logan Hall, Houston DT – Hall played inside at Houston but may move to edge because of his size. Steve Keim has emphasized front seven size/speed athletes early in the draft (Zaven Collins, Isaiah Simmons).
24 Dallas – Drake London, USC WR – Jerry Jones does a great job of not screwing up his first round picks. Dallas will want a high level offensive tackle, and pass rusher. And cornerback. And Safety. He’s not going to turn down 6’4″ Drake London.
25 Buffalo – Kyler Gordon, UW CB – Gordon is a high ceiling corner. Buffalo will want someone to replace Levi Wallace.
26 Tennessee – Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa C – Tennessee’s had a strong offensive line under their current regime. Linderbaum would likely move to guard. Tennessee would take David Ojabo here if he’s available.
27 Tampa Bay – Jalen Pitre, Baylor DB – Tampa is a strong roster, but they are thin at corner. Pitre thrived as a slot corner, something Tampa badly needs.
28 Green Bay – Devonte Wyatt, Georgia DT – Wyatt might be the best interior pass rusher in the draft. The Packers need wide receivers, but didn’t become the class of the NFC by drafting them in the first round.
29 Kansas City (From Miami) – Jameson Williams, Alabama WR – The Chiefs Air Show will be operating without Tyreek Hill for the first time since 2015.
30 Kansas City – Boye Mafe, Minnesota DE – Kansas City will need to rush the passer now more than ever. Mafe had a terrific senior bowl.
31 Cincinnati – Kenyon Green, Texas A&M OL – The Bengals have already heavily invested in OL. Green is extremely versatile and is a great run blocker.
32 Detroit (From LA Rams) – Treylon Burks, Arkansas WR – Detroit knows they need receiver help. They’ve gone heavy into offensive and defensive line. With some more help for Amon-ra St. Brown, this team could score a lot of points.
Honorable Mentions: Sam Howell, UNC QB; Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan OL
Jacksonville – Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan DE – Hutchinson is playing like the best player in the draft. He draws an extra blocker in the pass rush and is great against the run. The Jaguars have a ton of holes. They were bottom five in sacks in 2021. Everyone and their grandmother has Evan Neal as the pick here. I think Jacksonville leaves the best player on the board by doing that.
Detroit – Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon DE – Teammates with 2020 Lions first round pick Penei Sewell, Thibodeaux has devastating pass rush moves. If he has effort issues in run defense, Dan Campbell and company can coach said issues “up.”
Houston – Evan Neal, Alabama OT – Drafting Neal can protect Davis Mills and/or set up the roster to better support their quarterback of the future. Laremy Tunsil played five of a possible seventeen games last season and has a max of two seasons left on his contract. Lovie Smith will surely want Kyle Hamilton as well.
Jets – Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame S – Hamilton’s got absurd range and can move around the field, even as a pass rusher if needs be. He has free safety skills and strong safety size. Not a lot to think about with this pick.
Giants – Charles Cross, Miss. State OL – Cross allowed zero sacks and zero pressures against Alabama. He’s not the same run blocker as Ikem Ekwonu, but is above average in run blocking and pass pro. Brian Daboll will want an offense that can run and pass well.
Carolina – Ikem Ekwonu, NC State OL – The Panthers badly need offensive line help and “Icky” is regarded by some as the top dog in the whole draft. Carolina will be under some pressure to draft a quarterback here. No quarterback will last long behind the current Panthers offensive line.
Giants (From Chicago) – Ahmad Gardner, CincinnatiCB – I expect Gardner will be discussed as one of the best corners in recent memory after a few seasons. Even against Alabama’s vaunted receivers he allowed 14 whole yards. He’s a scheme fit for what Don Martindale’s defense.
Atlanta – Drake London, USC WR – Let’s just say (Falcons General Manager) Terry Fontenot has a thing for tall guys. There is a power vacuum in the NFC South with Tom Brady retiring, London could play a big part in Atlanta getting back into the playoffs. Ryan will begging for an offensive weapon with Pitts drawing double coverage now. The Falcons still badly need pass rush, but the quality here is a little riskier than at the top.
Denver – Derek Stingley Jr., LSU CB – Denver will surely be in the market for a veteran quarterback (Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson). New general managers rarely get two swings at the quarterback position. George Paton is a risk averse guy, something we saw last season when he drafted Patrick Surtain II over Justin Fields, I don’t believe he will want any of these quarterbacks for that reason. New Broncos DC Ejiro Evero comes from LA where they had Jalen Ramsey remove a top receiver from the offense’s game plan. Stingley (if healthy) can have that same impact for Denver.
Jets (From Seattle) – Devin Lloyd, Utah LB – The Jets have bigger needs, but Lloyd is a prototype linebacker who reminds me of Micah Parsons. Lloyd doesn’t have quite the size and may not be as great a pass rusher as Parsons, but his coverage skills and run defense should more than justify this pick. The Jets will be looking to add reinforcements at offensive line with Mekhi Becton looking more like a question mark and the interior struggling as well.
Pittsburgh (Trade with Washington) – Malik Willis, Liberty QB – Pittsburgh can move up with probably only giving up one additional first round pick and get their guy. Mike Tomlin has liked Willis a lot. Unless Washington needs to get their quarterback here, they can move back nine spots and get an extra pick in 2023.
Minnesota – Treylon Burks, Arkansas WR – Adam Thielen is getting older and the Vikings could use help in the receiver department. Kevin O’Connell had plenty of star wide receivers in LA for the quarterback to throw to. New general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will value passing production and the skill Burks brings. Adofo-Mensah comes from the Browns analytics friendly front office and should value wide receivers highly.
Cleveland – Garrett Wilson, Ohio State WR – The Browns definitely need help at wide receiver after departing with Odell Beckham. About 40 percent of Wilson’s yards were YAC yards, respectable for a receiver with as much attention on him as Wilson.
Baltimore – Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa OL – Baltimore is one of the steadiest teams in the NFL. They run the ball more than anybody. While Ravens GM Eric DeCosta isn’t known for drafting small school players early, it would make sense to make an exception for Trevor Penning. Penning excels in run blocking and allowed a mere two pressures against Iowa State.
Philadelphia (From Miami) – Zion Johnson, Boston College OL – Zion Johnson is a man’s man. He played well at the senior bowl and is a great run blocker. He took snaps at center which shows versatility that would appeal to the Eagles situation without Brandon Brooks and possibly without Jason Kelce.
Philadelphia (From Indianapolis) – George Karlaftis, Purdue DE – Karlaftis is still somewhat new to Football and has some tackling issues to work out. This man is a behemoth and could possibly even move inside if needed. Karlaftis had seven hurries against Iowa, he should push Derek Barnett to maybe start day one.
Chargers – Trent McDuffie, Washington CB – I would have the chargers take a receiver or even a tight end, but they reload at defensive back early and often. McDuffie is a great value pick here. There will be run-stuffing defensive tackles throughout the draft for LA.
Saints – Matt Corral, Ole Miss QB – Corral tightened up the turnovers in 2021 and showed off his quick release. Plus the Saints don’t mind having a short quarterback. Mickey Loomis could look to draft center Tyler Linderbaum if he’s not thrilled with any of the quarterbacks in this class.
Philadelphia – Martin Emerson, Miss. State CB – Veteran SEC corner with terrific size. While Emerson looked flawed against Alabama, he’s got a higher ceiling than many of his peers and gave up three touchdowns on the season.
Washington (Trade with Pittsburgh) – Jameson Williams, Alabama WR – Jameson Williams is a great asset for Scott Turner’s offense. He bullied corners all season long, if his medical checks out he’d fit well in this offense.
New England – Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson CB – Booth is a strong corner and New England relies on excellent coverage for their defense to operate. Booth was excellent in man coverage in 2021.
Las Vegas – Devonte Wyatt, UGA DT – Wyatt is a strong all around defensive tackle. He’ll improve the Raiders interior pass rush and shoddy run defense.
Arizona – Jermaine Johnson, FSU DE – Chandler Jones looks like he is out the door in Arizona. Johnson is a great player with double digit sacks at Florida State in ’21. He played well at the Senior Bowl.
Dallas – Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma DT – Winfrey came to life in the Senior Bowl. The Cowboys defense doesn’t have a strong interior presence. Winfrey gives them a real inside pass rush option.
Buffalo – David Ojabo, Michigan DE – Buffalo has Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison on free agency. Ojabo would be a huge asset to their DL rotation, if not a starter.
Tennessee – Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina OLB – Tennessee runs a 3-4 so Enagbare would a be a fit. Enagbare had a great senior bowl performance and would give Tennessee the option to move on from either Bud Dupree or Harold Landry.
Tampa Bay – Jalen Pitre, Baylor DB – Tampa has some big decisions to make at QB and wide receiver. They were thin at corner last season. Unless they trade this selection for a big name QB, Pitre would make an aggressive slot corner where they have struggled in 2021.
Green Bay – Roger McCreary, Auburn CB – The Packers like to draft corners early. If Rodgers has a voice in this years’ draft, they could maybe take Trey McBride, as resigning Robert Tonyan will be tough if they want to keep Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.
Miami (From San Francisco) – Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa C – Mike McDaniel’s offense starts on the ground. Linderbaum is not a sexy pick, but he is great in pass protection and run blocks well.
Kansas City – Jordan Davis, Georgia DT – Andy Reid is a line of scrimmage guy, and the Chiefs gave up the second most yards per carry last season. There’s a lot of respect for Davis and most media types don’t think Jordan Davis lasts this long in the draft. Davis may never get double digit sacks but his pass rush skills can only go up. Davis is an elite run defender.
Cincinnati – Kenyon Green, Texas A&M OL – Green is extremely versatile and great as a run blocker. He can start at right tackle if Reiff gets injured again in 2022. Mike Brown has shown a preference for big school prospects, I believe he will want Green or Darian Kinnard over Bernhard Raimann or Max Mitchell. Cincinnati may trade down here if another team wants to get in front of Detroit for a quarterback.
Detroit (From Rams) – Travis Jones, Uconn DT – Jones is an excellent run defender with plus pass rush skills. Detroit looks like they are prioritizing line of scrimmage talent early, Jones would be an excellent value here. Jones has earned praise for his overall fitness and looks to be an upgrade over the current group for Detroit at defensive tackle.
Second round (61st): Myjai Sanders, Cincinnati DE – Sanders posted 8(!) hurries against the vaunted Alabama offensive line in the cotton bowl. He showed leadership as a vocal supporter of other defensive linemen in the senior bowl and has appropriate size for the position.
Third round (93rd): Alontae Taylor, Tennessee CB – An SEC Veteran, Taylor allowed one touchdown on fifty-two targets this season. Strong performances against Alabama and Pittsburgh this season. Zero recorded penalties for the 2021 season.
Third round (compensatory): Jarrett Patterson, Notre Dame IOL – Patterson is a longtime starter for Notre Dame at center. Lynch has shown a preference for Notre Dame offensive line with the Mike McGlinchey and Aaron Banks picks early in previous drafts. Laken Tomlinson is up on his contract and Alex Mack is in his late 30s.
Fourth round (132nd): Kolby Harvell-Peel, Ok. State S – Harvell-Peel has been a top safety since his freshman year. He can push for the strong safety job if Jaquiski Tartt isn’t resigned and would be a valuable depth safety if he is. Harvell-Peel has been a cornerstone player for one of College Football’s top defenses for three years.
Fifth round (171st): Keytaon Thompson, UVA WR – Thompson has experience taking handoffs (39 carries in 2021) and has a giant 6’4″ frame that should make him easy to target. Pro Football Focus suggests he’s even a good run blocker, making him extremely valuable in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Sixth round (185th): Chase Garbers, Cal QB – The depth chart behind Trey Lance is pretty skinny. Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard are both gone. Garbers has displayed good athleticism and a reasonably strong arm at Cal. He started four years and gradually improved during his time there.
Song of the post – “Black Summer” by Red Hot Chili Peppers
Round 1: Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson CB – Clemson struggled on offense, and was held together by elite defensive play. Booth Jr. allowed two touchdowns in coverage during the whole season. Booth’s strong man coverage chops will make him attractive to the Patriots scheme.
Round 2: Neil Farrell Jr., LSU DT – The Patriots have been bullied on run defense. Belichick has shown a preference for big bois (Farrell is 6’4″, 325 lbs), and Farrell is a plus pass rusher and shut down Alabama’s rushing offense this year.
Round 3: Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss WR – Drummond can push through tackles and will fit well in New England’s quick pass scheme. Played well against Alabama. Drummond has speed and a stout build, compares to Sammy Watkins at Clemson.
Round 4: Cade Mays, Tennessee OL – A better run blocker than pass blocker, Mays will likely move to guard in the pros. Should thrive in the Patriots gap run-blocking scheme. Mays plays angry but has technical flaws, the Patriots have elevated later round offensive lineman (Joe Thuney, Michael Onwenu, Shaq Mason) into high level starters and should continue to do so. Mays was a five star athlete in high school, which the Patriots will like.
Round 6: Britain Covey, Utah WR – Britain Covey was made to be a Patriot. Covey is a return specialist who can get open in quick pass plays on offense.
Round 7: Cade York, LSU Kicker – York had a clutch 57 yarder into the fog against Florida in 2020. York should give the Patriots more field goal range which plays well into Bill Belichick’s conservative approach.
Offseason thoughts –
Wide receiver Nelson Agholor is a waste in the Patriots offense. He’s at his best when he gets to run down field and separate for a bomb. The Patriots should try to move him for a draft pick or someone who’s a better fit, like Curtis Samuel.
For 20 years, Tom Brady kept the Patriots offense relevant even in years when they had guys like Reche Caldwell or Brandon LaFell. Coach Belichick could spend top draft picks and cap dollars on defensive players knowing Brady would put the offense on his back. While Mac Jones has stood out amongst his rookie quarterback peers, the 2020 free agency spending frenzy signaled a shift in how Belichick viewed he needed to build the roster. This draft may show the Patriots spending early picks on wide receivers, a departure from the Patriot Way.
One of the Patriots number one goals will be taking back the AFC East. Not only do they have to contend with a superior Bills roster, but they have been pushed around by a middling Miami team. There’s also the New York “49ers” who may not stay bad for long. For Bill Belichick that’s going to look like: 1. Strong pass defense, 2. Convert on third downs, 3. Don’t turn over the football. See you next year.
Gridiron Seasonal 